Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 5 running’s of the Arkle. Un De Sceaux, Douvan & Footpad were all sent off odds-on. They were all prominent in the ante-post markets from an early stage and were all considered to be “Bankers” heading into the meeting.
Last year was a very different story. With no standout contender on either side of the Irish Sea, a field of 12 headed to post in one of the most open Arkle’s in recent memory.
While the shape of the race was different to recent renewals, the end result was not, with the Irish dominating and Willie Mullins training the winner with his only representative in the race, Duc Des Genievres. How did we allow him to go off at 5/1!?! Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
This year, just like the last, appears to be wide open. While Notebook (5/1) has rightly emerged as a good favourite, he has not separated himself from the rest in the market like some of the classy aforementioned winners of past years had; a convincing win in the Irish Arkle would change that, but for now, there is no short-priced favourite.
One of my favourite quotes is: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” If George Santayana, the orchestrator of that great quote, were still alive (and a huge horse racing fan), I’m sure he would be meticulously studying to figure out which one of Wille’s was destined to turn up in this year’s Arkle.
That is easier said than done. If predicting Willie Mullins was easy, I wouldn’t be writing this article and Denise Coates certainly wouldn’t have banked £320m last year.
Alas, I have attempted the impossible.
TORNADO FLYER (25/1) is an interesting option. I don’t think many would’ve expected him to be campaigned over 2 miles given he was tried exclusively over 2m4f last season, but his dam is a half-sister to Hurricane Fly so there is speed in his pedigree.
Some horses do thrive over shorter distances once sent over fences; last year’s winner, Duc Des Genievres, is an apt example of that fact.
Very lightly raced with just 8 starts to his name, Tornado Flyer been tried at the highest level in bumpers and over hurdles; 4 of his 6 starts in those spheres came in grade 1’s. 3rd in the 2018 Champion Bumper, he confirmed his promise by winning the Punchestown grade 1 bumper a month later.
Hopes were high for him heading into his novice hurdle season. He made a winning start to his career in that sphere with a comfortable victory at Punchestown in December. That victory saw him cut to 12/1 for the Ballymore and he lined up for the Lawlor’s of Naas next time as the well fancied 9/4 second favourite. He was seemingly amiss that day, pulling up early into the race. Nothing serious came to light in the aftermath, but he wasn’t seen again on the track until the Punchestown Festival 4 months later were ran a good race to finish 4th in the Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle over 2m4f. With that more encouraging performance behind him, connections were quick to bookmark a chasing campaign next season.
He made a winning chase debut at Naas in November (2m3f), travelling well to dispute at the last before being ridden out to beat Choungaya by ¾L. Dropped back to 2m1f for a Grade 3 at Navan, he stayed on well to lead at the last, beating I’m A Game Changer by 4L.
That form alone is not enough to make him an Arkle contender, but what impressed me is how he dealt with adversity in both of those starts.
At Naas, he made a dreadful mistake at the 7th which would’ve taken a lesser horse out of the race; yet he recovered well and his jumping thereafter was very good.
At Navan, he was snatched up approaching 3 out as the two Elliott horses stopped him from going between them. That badly checked his momentum but he managed to rally and quicken in the style of a good horse. Danny Mullins said after the race that “Once I got him balanced down to the last, I knew he’d have a good jump in him and he put it to bed nicely then” and “he was always going to be a class horse”
What adds further appeal from an ante-post perspective is that all the information I can find points to him being kept over the minimum trip this season. Wille Mullins said after his first win of the season that “The Racing Post Novice Chase and the Irish Arkle will be his aim”
He didn’t make the former, but he is entered at Naas on 5th January for another 2m novice chase. Perhaps he felt that he needed more experience before tackling a grade 1 over fences; after all, he’s only had 8 career starts.
A victory on Sunday would surely confirm his place at the Dublin Racing Festival – which will be the litmus test for his Cheltenham Festival ambitions.
The recent run of MELON (14/1) has muddied the water somewhat. Before his battling win at Leopardstown on the 27th December, connections seemed adamant that the two-time Champion Hurdle runner up would be stepping up in trip.
But immediately following the race, Willie said that “I’d imagine the Arkle is the likely target (for Melon) and he could come back here (Leopardstown) for the Dublin Racing Festival”
Given his high-class hurdle form, especially at Cheltenham, he’d certainly be a player if turning up here. 14/1 is widely available; a generous price when you consider his form with Fakir D’oudairies who is just 6/1.
Fakir beat Melon by 3L back in November, but Melon was conceding 8lbs to Fakir that day and come Arkle day they will be racing off level weights.
FAUGHEEN’s emphatic defeat of Samcro the previous day greatly enhanced his Marsh/JLT claims and it may have swayed them to keep Melon over the minimum trip. Add LAURINA’s bitterly disappointing performance into the mix and you can certainly see why they may have reconsidered their options with Melon.
Without trying to sound like an after-timer, I never believed that Laurina would be a genuine Arkle contender. She’s a talented mare, but she’s looks like she needs a trip and soft ground to be at her best. After being as short as 3/1 for the race after her chase debut, she’s now a 25/1 shot. It was found that she burst blood vessels after her last race, which can partly explain her poor performance for all that she looked to be struggling from a very early stage. Where she goes next is unknown. She may miss Cheltenham entirely but if she were to go, the Marsh/JLT (14/1) would be the logical choice.
CASH BACK (33/1) is worthy of a mention. He’s only had 4 starts for Willie Mullins, 3 of which have come over hurdles. Placed in a grade 2 novice hurdle, he was bought to be a chaser and that much was clear when he won nicely on his debut over fences. The form of that race isn’t strong, but Mullins has sent some of his best to that race in the past: Ballycasey, Vautour, Douvan, Min & Al Boum Photo made it 5 wins on the bounce between 2013 & 2018. He was reportedly held an entry for the Racing Post Novice Chase on Boxing Day too.
He’s entered in the same Novice Chase as Tornado Flyer at Naas on the 5th January. 6 will head to post as the Mullins trained duo take on Bay Hill, Dunvegan, Ten Ten & Zero Ten. That’s a competitive line up and a good performance by either of the aforementioned Mullins pair will certainly see their price for the Arkle shorten, with the winner likely to head to the Dublin Racing Festival.
Paul Townend has chosen Tornado Flyer, allowing Danny Mullins to partner Cash Back. The former will be conceding 4lbs to the field so this will be no easy assignment. I’ll be watching that race closely.
BAPAUME (33/1) emerged as a possible dark horse for the Arkle with an accomplished round of jumping to win at the second time of asking over fences over 2m3f in mid-December. Better known as a 3 miler over hurdles, Mullins was keen to step him back in trip over the larger obstacles, especially after he faded badly on chase debut over 2m5f. Placed in the Triumph (2017) and the Stayers (2019), he’s one of the highest rated hurdlers to make the transition to fences this season and Ruby Walsh talked him up as his value bet for the race.
Bapaume is small horse and my concern is that he might lack the scope and pace to contend with the best over the minimum trip; but his Cheltenham form and his overall level of achievement over hurdles entitle him to plenty of respect. He and Cash Back are very much in the “ones to watch” category.
This is an ever-evolving scenario and it’s hard to be certain who will turn up in the Arkle. It’s like attempting to solve a jigsaw puzzle with blurred vision while a delightful Irishman keeps stealing the pieces and replacing them with new ones.
Right now, I think MELON and TORNADO FLYER are the likely representatives. They have differing profiles, but you can make a reasonable case for both. On form, Melon would be the stable’s #1. His Cheltenham form is sure to make him a popular choice should he line up on the day. 14/1 is a generous price, all things considered. He may find one to good, as he has done multiple times at the highest level, but he’s likely to give a good account of himself.
Tornado Flyer is intriguing to me. He hasn’t been visually impressive but he’s now 2/2 over fences and his targets have been the top grade 1 novice chases from the start of the season. Not only does that show a belief in his ability, but it’s a rare case of Willie Mullins having a sole aim and trip in mind for one of his novice chasers. He’s always promised to be a smart horse; this could be his year to prove himself.
Both appeal as EW options, but I will wait until the Naas race this Sunday at least. Beyond that, it will be interesting to see who is targeted at the Irish Arkle at the beginning of February.
*EDIT: After days of thinking about it, I think 14/1 for MELON is too good a price to turn down. He looks certain to come here and it’s hard to envisage 3 horses finishing ahead of him come March, especially given his excellent Cheltenham Festival form
Advise: Back MELON @ 14/1 EW
Who do you fancy for the Arkle? Will Willie win it again? Let me know your thoughts on Twitter @OverandClear
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