THE CON MAN – 2:35 Haydock (30th December)
With Marie’s Rock & Ebony Jewel giving the form of his previous run a serious boost, The Con Man lined up a well supported 9/4 favourite for this 2m2f handicap.
For a long way, it looked as though that support would be justified as the lightly raced hurdler travelled through the race extremely well and traded at a low of 1.16. He was pegged back in the closing stages by Flinck, another young & progressive type who’s a very strong stayer over that trip. The pair pulled 6 lenghts clear of the rest and it’s generally a good sign when the unexposed runners pull away from the more seasoned handicappers.
A Point-to-Point winner for Colin Bowe, he beat Old Rascals by 5 lengths; he’s now rated 134. In his sole hurdle start last season, he beat the now 131-rated Garrettstown and as previously mentioned, the form of his penultimate start at Newbury now has a very strong look to it.
The feeling is that this son of Oscar relishes soft ground and Colin Bowe is adamant that 3 miles will be his optimum trip in time. With his size and scope, his long-term future lies over fences but I’d be surprised if this lightly raced 7-year-old can’t win a handicap before the end of the season.
AMATEUR – 2:35 Warwick (31st December)
He showed a fair amount of promise in bumpers back in 2017, winning at Chepstow before running in the grade 2 bumper at Aintree. He finished 11th that day, but the fact he was thought good enough to compete at that level shows the regard he was held in.
He’s only had 5 starts since then, indicating that he’s probably had injury issues.
Still, he competed in 3 very competitive novice hurdles, won by: Beakstown, Alsa Mix & Éclair Surf. The race won by Alsa Mix was a grade 2; again highlighting that connections have felt comfortable throwing him into deep waters.
His latest run was in a 3m2f handicap and it demonstrated his potential as an out-an-out stayer. Held up in rear, he began to make decent headway once asked for an effort, picking up really well in the straight to grab 2nd having entered the home straight in 7th.
He managed that effort having made numerous jumping mistakes. You can view that a couple of ways, either: he should be avoided because he makes mistakes or he’ll be even better once they’re ironed out. I prefer the later in this case given it was only his 5th start over hurdles and it was his first time jumping amongst a large crowd of horses.
Well backed on his last couple of starts, he’s clearly thought capable of better. He’ll be of strong interest in 3m+ handicap hurdles, especially when the ground is testing.
MAGIC SAINT – 2:00 Cheltenham (1st January)
Paul Nicholls has been trying to campaign him as a 2 ½ miler, but after his second failed attempt over that trip, surely it’s time to revert back to 2 miles.
He travelled with extreme menace approaching 3 out, trading in-play at a low of 2.82. From that point on, he began to tire but the way he went through the race was very encouraging for his future prospects. He’s unlikely to drop in the handicap, but he retains potential off his current mark.
The obvious race for him is the Grand Annual. He’s currently 20/1; a price which has tempted me into having a bet.
Sent off favourite for that race last year following just 3 starts over fences in Britain, he did not have the profile of a typical Grand Annual winner. For all that he had raced 4 times over fences in France, he lacked the necessary big field handicap experience to justify his short price for a race of that nature.
This year is different though. He’s now been competitive in multiple big field handicaps but he’s still only had 9 starts in Britain; a great combination of experience and potential.
In 2017 & 2018, the Grand Annual was won by the favourite in the previous year’s renewal. Le Prezien was 7/2 in 2017 when finishing 8th before winning at 15/2 the following year off a 4lb higher mark. Rock the World was 9/2 in 2016 when finishing 3rd before winning at 10/1 next year off just a 1lb higher mark.
His handicap win over 2 miles on his penultimate start received a big form boost when Bun Doran (a narrow 2nd to Magic Saint who was giving him 4lbs) won the grade 2 Desert Orchid at Kempton over Christmas. Furthermore, Paul Nicholls has won this race 4 times in the last 16 years.
He’ll be right at the top of the weights with a current mark of 155, but he has a touch of class and this 6-year-old could go on to compete at the top level over the minimum trip.
He’s currently entered in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase at Ascot on the 18th January, but I don’t think he’ll go there. I believe there’s enough scope off his current mark for him to compete in handicaps before moving on to graded company next season.
ADVICE: Back MAGIC SAINT @ 20/1 EW for the Grand Annual
ASHINGTON – 2:15 Musselburgh (1st January)
Backed like defeat was out of the question, he travelled like the best horse in the race and victory looked highly likely as he approached 2 out still on the bridle (traded at 1.11 in running).
Unfortunately for his supporters (I was unfortunately one of them), he found very little once asked for an effort and eventually finished 3rd, 4 lengths behind the fast-finishing Sir Chauvelin. The winner came from way off the pace to win and it may be the case that Ashington paid the price for chasing a very strong pace. The fact that the front-runner was still in front approaching 2 out but was eventually beaten 24 lengths in 5th also supports the idea that the pace was on the strong side.
Still, he travelled in the style of a good horse and he can land a good handicap from his current mark. Watch out for him over a sharp 2 miles.
BLAZER’S MILL – 12:30 Ayr (2nd January)
Like many of Olly Murphy’s horses this season, he looked in desperate need of his first run. The market suggested that would be the case too, as he drifted from his overnight price of 4/6 to 7/4. Olly Murphy revealed in an earlier interview that he came back in from his summer break later than most, adding to the belief that he’d improve for his first outing of the season.
In fact, Olly Murphy had a winner on the same card two races later in a novice hurdle with Endlessly, who was well beaten on his first run of the season.
Held up early, you could see Richard Johnson trying to reign him back at times as he tried to stop his mount from over racing. This was his only his second run under rules so it was no surprise that he was still a bit green. Still, it was an improvement from his bumper win where he was very green at times.
He began to make headway 5 out as a group of 3 leaders began to pull away from the rest. He moved into 3rd before 3 out but Johnson was getting more animated as he put in a sloppy jump. That was a jump of a tired horse and in testing conditions he probably used his remaining energy attempting to close on the leading trio. He eventually finished 4th as the front two pulled well clear. Conditions were on the testing side and it may prove that he’s more effective on a sounder surface.
Blazer’s Mill is well regarded by the yard and he can still develop into a nice novice hurdler, for all that we won’t see the best of him until he goes chasing. His bumper victory worked out reasonably well, with the runner up winning his next two starts. His point to point 2nd also looks strong; the winner, Birchdale, is rated 146 under rules while On The Slopes, now rated 129, was a further 8 lengths back in 3rd.
He’s one to look out for on his next run and hopefully the bookmakers overreact to this defeat. 2m4f should be fine but I wouldn’t mind seeing him step back in trip given how he closed on the leaders approaching 3 out.
ELDORADO ALLEN – 3:35 Sandown (4th January)
It was great to see this talented son of Khalkevi back on a racecourse after a 392-day layoff!
And he was so close to making it a winning return too – trading at a low of 1.24 before being gunned down by Mill Green in the final 100 yards.
Given he was carrying top weight and returning after over a year layoff on testing ground, it was a superb performance and one of immense promise. He was even cut in the Champion Hurdle market! 33s-50s with most major firms but even in a weak Champion Hurdle, it would be a very ambitious route to take.
It’s far more likely that we’ll see him next in another handicap. With chasing on the agenda next season, I’m sure connections will be more eager to win some decent prize money in handicaps before competing in graded company next year. Hopefully the handicapper isn’t too harsh! Although I do fear a significant rise is on the cards given the front two pulled 9 lengths clear.
The first race that sprang to mind was the Betfair Hurdle. It’s been a great race for young, unexposed horses in recent years and if he were to win impressively, it might even tempt connections into chancing their arm in the Champion Hurdle!
The Imperial Cup and the County Hurdle are other potential options, and it’s worth noting that Tizzard/Warner also have Elixir De Nutz to consider for these 2-mile handicaps given his disappointing performances in open company this season; a mark of 146 looks fair given his strong novice form.
Thank you for reading! Let me know who really caught your eye this week @overandclear on Twitter!
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