LE CAMELEON – 1:20 Chepstow (6th January)
I don’t normally mention last time out winners in this series but I’m making an exception here as I have a lot of time for this horse.
A half brother to multiple winners (Moonlighter, Horatio Hornblower & George Nympton), he shaped with a great deal of promise on his sole bumper start. He eventually finished 6th but he travelled very powerfully throughout and he looked sure to take closer order until fading late on. That was a promising debut effort considering the calibre of the opposition; McFabulous, Fautinovick & Silver Hallmark were the front three and multiple subsequent winners finished down the field. It’s also worth noting that he was sent off at 6/1 so there was clearly some belief in his ability from an early stage.
He started this season with two promising placed efforts, including a 3rd place finish behind the exciting Sporting John. On both occasions, he looked like a work in progress but one with plenty of ability.
Off the mark on his 3rd start over hurdles, he was still very keen throughout and it was notable that Chester Williams was reluctant to send him to the front too soon. Once he finally asked him to put his race to bed, he did so in decent style under hands and heels; he was certainly value for his 1 ¾ L victory.
Described as a “big baby” and “a 3-mile chaser in the making”, he’s likely to be brought on gradually as is customary with Nick Williams. While I don’t expect him to run many more times this season, I do think a mark of 120 underestimates him. He’s certainly capable of winning more races in this sphere and he’ll be of strong interest in a handicap on soft/heavy ground.
PRUDHOMME – 3:00 Taunton (7th January)
Another Nick Williams horse (I promise this is the last one on this particular list!) and another that looks to possess a fair amount of ability for all that he isn’t the finished article yet.
A winner on his final bumper start, he made a successful hurdling debut at Uttoxeter in October in stylish fashion. Having travelled well throughout, he stalked the leader entering the home straight and readily pulled away under hands and heels after the last. The front three that day pulled 7L clear of the rest so it’s not surprising that the second and third (Thor De Cerisy & Emmas Joy) have won subsequently; they both have an official rating of 124.
Prudhomme bitterly disappointed next time when sent off a 2/7f but he had wind surgery immediately following that run so that effort can be forgiven.
He made his return at Taunton in a competitive 0-140 event. Sent off at just 5/1, he travelled enthusiastically in rear for most of the contest, with Chester Williams keeping him four wide throughout. He made smooth headway approaching the final flight in the back straight, travelling significantly better than the majority of his rivals. A sloppy jump dd his chances no favour but he recovered well to hold every chance approaching two out, trading at a low of 2.22 in running. However, the step up to 2m3f appeared to take its toll as he faded into 5th.
As with Le Cameleon, two miles looks to be his optimum trip for all that both should stay further in time. We often see horses run appreciably better on their second start after a wind operation too. He was dropped 1lb to a mark of 124 for his last start which would appear to be a workable one, especially when you consider the form of his novice hurdle win (discussed above)
GOWITHTHEFLOW – 1:30 Kempton (11th January)
It finally seemed to click for him over fences on his 4th chase start under rules after three bitterly disappointing efforts.
Nico gave him a lovely ride considering his struggles over fences so far. While Mercian Prince & Erick Le Rouge led the field along, Gowiththeflow headed the chasing pack but Nico had him out wide so he had plenty of space to attack his fences. His jumping was significantly better and he was the only one capable of closing on the Kempton specialist Erick Le Rouge.
The pair pulled 12L clear of the rest so it’s no surprise that he’s been raised 5lbs to a mark of 133. Thought good enough to take his chance in the 2018 Ballymore, he’s always been held in high regard and point-to-point winner looks to finally be getting his act together over the larger obstacles. He should prove capable of picking up a decent handicap from his current mark; a step up to 3 miles could well be worth another go based on the way he stayed on.
HOLD THE NOTE – 1:50 Warwick (11th January)
I’m a huge fan of this horse despite my financial investments in him going unrewarded so far!
His two chase efforts both displayed a fair amount of promise. He was 3rd on chase debut after being well backed and travelling very well; he may have needed that run and the ground was very testing that day. He reappeared on Boxing Day at Kempton in a race that connections have targeted with their best novice chaser. Again, he travelled like a talented horse but he was brought to a standstill by the fall of Roll Again. He was quickly pulled up to be saved for another day.
At Warwick, he proved that a mark of 133 underestimated his ability. In a field full of higher rated rivals, he went through the race like the best horse. As he and Two for Gold pulled away from the rest, Hold the Note appeared to have the edge and traded at a low of 1.16 in running. However, he was outstayed by the tenacious Two for Gold who has shown on multiple occasions that he’s a determined battler so there is no shame in going down to him.
When making my notes for this, I thought that Hold the Note would be raised about 6lbs, given that Two for Gold came into the race with a rating of 140. That would put him on a mark of 139; absolutely ideal for the Close Brothers at Cheltenham.
To my dismay, the handicapper has put him up 12lbs to a mark of 145. Perhaps I was being optimistic in hoping that he might slip under the radar. After all, it didn’t require the shrewdest judge to spot the potential and the exploits of Mister Whitaker and Glen Forsa have focused the eyes of the racing world to the Channon/Radford novice chasers. While this mark would guarantee him a place in the novice handicap chase at the festival, it raises two concerns.
Firstly, any collateral form boost could see him raised further; a rating of 145 is the ceiling for the Close Brothers, so any further increase would make him ineligible. Secondly, he may have shown too much of his hand. It’s what I’ll call the “Glen Forsa” problem; a good performance in a graded race could well force connections to look at other options. The Plate could be an option for him and novices have done well in that race in recent years.
For now, I’m happy to leave him alone from an ante-post perspective. However, he will be of interest wherever he turns up. 2m4f looks to be his trip for now.
From the same race, WHATMORE is also worth a mention. This was his first attempt at 3 miles so Richard Johnson understandably held him up. The race did not unfold favourably for him though. He was travelling better than most after 3 out as the front two began to pull away. Stuck behind a wall of fading horses, the champion jockey tried to sneak Whatmore up the inside through a gap that didn’t exist. This ended any chance he had of closing on the leaders but he still ran on to finish 3rd. He’s shown ability over fences but I’d say he’s better over an intermediate trip. He’s been kindly dropped 1lb to a mark of 138 for that effort and he’s one to note in handicaps.
OVERCOURT – 1:25 Kelso (12th January)
He’s been steadily progressing over hurdles and he posted his best effort to date when chasing home Cheddleton and Jabbaar; that pair are both well above average and so there was shame in his 3rd place finish behind them.
In fact, he was 9L clear of the rest despite being given a far more lenient ride than most. Once the front two kicked away, Ryan Mania was just pushing Overcourt out under hands and heels while most were far more animated.
With three hurdle runs under his belt, he’s now eligible for handicaps where he should be far more competitive. His dam, Overlady, was a thorough stayer so a step up in trip should suit him and he seemed to handle heavy ground pretty well last time out.
At the time of posting, he doesn’t have an official rating but it’ll be interesting to see what mark he gets. He seems to be progressing nicely and he’s one to note in handicaps for a trainer who’s started the year in fantastic form.
METICULOUS – 2:40 Punchestown (12th January)
The Moscow Flyer saw a fantastic battle between Captain Guinness and Andy Dufresne; I was very impressed by both for different reasons but I was also drawn to the hurdles debut of Meticulous.
A very good bumper horse last season, he was a solid 2nd behind Envoi Allen at Leopardstown before taking his chance at Cheltenham. Sent off a 7/1 shot, he slightly disappointed that day as he finished 8th but the soft ground would not have been in his favour; Joseph O’Brien said in a stable tour that Meticulous “doesn’t want the ground too heavy” and his form shows that he’s much more effective on a sounder surface.
The soft ground at Punchestown would’ve been against him but I was impressed with the way he travelled for much of the race and he jumped very well considering it was first start over hurdles. He had no chance with the front two but he was the last of the pursuers to be asked for an effort. It’s worth noting that he was weak in the market which suggests that he’ll improve for that run.
I don’t expect him to run at Cheltenham or Aintree but he could be one that sneaks under the radar at Punchestown. Keep an eye out for him.
Thank you for reading! Let me know who caught your eye this week @OverandClear on Twitter!
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