12:40 – JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (grade 2) (registered As The Finesse)
The surprise absence of Cerberus & Navajo Pass has left this race looking desperately short of quality. Those two would have brought proven graded form into this contest so it’s a shame that neither lines up.
As a result, MONTE CRISTO is likely to be a short-priced favourite. Nicky Henderson has won this race four times in the last seven years; in the colours of Munir & Souede, Peace and Co won this race in 2015 before winning the Triumph Hurdle a couple of months later.
Monte Cristo was last seen winning a juvenile handicap hurdle at Auteuil and the British handicapper subsequently awarded him a mark of 140.
Simon Munir & Isaac Souede normally have a strong hand in the juvenile division but no stand out contender has emerged in their colours so far this season. The fact that Monte Cristo makes his British debut in a grade 2 could well be a sign of their belief in this horse.
He’s a half-brother to multiple winners; including Linda’s Charm who placed in a Group 3 in France. He’s currently 33/1 for the Triumph Hurdle – that won’t last long were he to win this in good style.
It’ll be interesting to see how strong (or weak) he is in the market – that could well be the best indication of his chances.
ROWLAND WARD lines up having won an introductory juvenile hurdle in good style. Goa Lil was back in 4th that day; he won on his next start, beating Lord Lamington who previously finished 2nd in a grade 2 behind the aforementioned Navajo Pass. Rated 83 on the flat, this son of Sea the Stars will appreciate any drying out of the ground but he seemed to handle the underfoot conditions well on his last start. He’ll need to improve but he’s entitled to given he’s only had two starts over obstacles.
GALAHAD QUEST might well sneak under the radar for Nick Williams. Sent off a 13/8 favourite on debut, he bumped into leading Triumph contender Allmankind. In truth, he never looked like landing a blow and he finished well beaten in 4th. Still, the market vibes were positive which augured well for his prospects, especially when you consider how Nick Williams is known for gradually bringing on his young horses.
He ran a superb race on his next start when taking on older horses in a maiden hurdle at Taunton. He quickened up in good style approaching two out (trading at 1.15 in running) but he was outstayed by the odds-on favourite, Buzz – a 96 rated flat horse making his hurdle debut for Nicky Henderson.
Harry Cobden takes the ride; he’s had 2 wins & 4 places from just 9 rides for the trainer. In receipt of 3lbs from Monte Cristo and Rowland Ward, he could well outrun his odds.
GEROLAMO CARDANO made an impressive hurdling debut at Hereford earlier this month, powering away from Artistic Language in really testing conditions. The form of that run has taken a few knocks, with the 2nd and 3rd being by a combined 69 lengths on their next outings. Hereford barely survived a steward’s inspection that day and it might well be that the extreme conditions left a mark on the runners that day; for all that Gerolamo Cardano seemed to relish that ground, I am concerned that he may struggle in a similar vein to his rivals that day. Also, he won’t get those testing conditions here. He has a few things to prove in this company.
NIGHT EDITION lines up for David Pipe after finishing 4th at Taunton last month. This looks a very tough task and he looks to have place prospects at best.
GOLD STANDARD completes the line-up for Tony Carroll; he had a fair bit of success with Nelson River in juvenile’s last season but it’s tough to imagine Gold Standard replicating that here. Last seen being well beaten on the flat off a mark of 50, he makes his stable debut but he can only be watched.
SELECTION: GALAHAD QUEST (6/1)
1:15 – Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase
This race has thrown up some good winners in recent seasons; Kildisart won last year before finishing 4th in a hot renewal of the JLT while Mister Whitaker won in 2018 before winning the Close Brothers.
IMPERIAL AURA is likely to prove all the rage here and with good reason. He was very well backed when declared at Huntingdon the other week (before it was abandoned) & he’s always promised to make a top-class horse; winning three of his four starts over timber before making a very encouraging start to life over fences. He won with ease on chase debut where he was sent off a 1/25 favourite but it’s his run behind Pym that marked him down as a horse to follow.
For much of that contest, he travelled like the best horse but his exuberance ultimately took its toll as he failed to stay to extended 3m1f trip. He was also conceding experience to Pym since it was his first proper race over fences given his debut in this sphere was a non-contest. On that evidence, the step back in trip certainly looks to be in his favour and it will allow David Bass to give him a trademark positive ride.
It would be surprising if he didn’t progress beyond a mark of 136 and connections undoubtedly have an eye on the festival; with the Close Brothers and the Plate both being feasible targets.
My one concern (and it’s a significant one) would be the form of the yard. Kim Bailey’s are on the easy list currently following a string of disappointing performances in 2020. Sea Story’s very disappointing performance at Huntingdon on Friday only furthered those concerns. But they’re let Imperial Aura take his chance and they wouldn’t be doing so if he didn’t seem right at home. However, it’s a big enough concern for me to leave him alone at a short price in a competitive handicap.
GOWITHTHEFLOW made my “Eye-catchers of the week” list for his performance at Kempton two weeks ago. He was the only one who closed on track specialist Erick Le Rouge and it was encouraging to see him jump with much more fluency following a disappointing start to chasing career. He’s been raised 5lbs for that run but this point-to-point winner has always been held in high regard; he was thought good enough to run in the Ballymore a couple of seasons ago. However, his current price of 7/1 doesn’t appeal too much to me and on watching his last start back, Nico had him wide throughout which might be why he jumped better but it remains to be seen how he’ll perform with rivals around him.
SIMPLY THE BETTS and ON THE SLOPES finished 2nd and 3rd behind Commanche Red on Boxing Day. They ran drastically different races that day; Simply the Betts never looked like winning – running in snatches and jumping markedly to the left on multiple occasions. It was encouraging to see him stay on strongly especially considering the bulk of his form has come over 2 miles and the return to a left-handed track should definitely suit.
In contrast, On the Slopes was prominent throughout and jumped well. He loomed up on the turn for home, trading at a low of 2.1 in running but he was brushed aside by his stablemate approaching the final fence. He’s been very consistent in competitive handicaps this season and he’s been dropped 1lb for his last run meaning he meets Simply the Betts on 1lb better terms after finishing just half a length behind him.
On the Slopes may not be as exciting as Simply the Betts but the price discrepancy is too big in my opinion; 12/1 for the former while the latter is 13/2. It’s also worth noting that On the Slopes was well backed when declared to race at Huntingdon (the same race as Imperial Aura). Chris Gordon is in good form and I’d side with his charge at the prices.
MERCY MERCY ME broke his maiden tag last time; form that’s been franked with the 3rd place Cap Du Nord winning on Thursday. He’s been a frustrating horse to follow but maybe Paul Nicholls is finally getting to the bottom of him – although this is the classic “Flu Jab” season for the trainer so it might be safer to avoid his runners for now.
CHAMPAGNE COURT and COURT MASTER are both 2/2 over fences although the latter was fortunate to win last time. Top weight JARVEY’S PLATE makes his handicap chase debut after disappointing on his last two starts; his chase debut entitles him to plenty of respect but he has something to prove at present.
SELECTION: ON THE SLOPES (12/1)
1:50 – Paddy Power 45 Sleeps To Cheltenham Trophy Handicap Chase
HIGHWAY ONE O ONE has been ultra-consistent in his chasing career to date; in the 5 handicap chases he’s completed (unseated in the BetVictor Gold Cup) he’s placed on 4 occasions. That fact is part of his appeal while also being a negative; his handicap chase debut came on a mark of 145 and he races off the same mark today thanks to his 1 length defeat at Kempton on his last start.
The step back in trip to 2 ½ miles should suit him and he brings solid course form to this race; he was 2nd in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase on this card last season and he wasn’t beaten far by Mister Whitaker in the Silver Trophy. He’s likely to run his race yet again and he could be an “Each-way shot to nothing” if that’s your thing. For me, I’m happy to look elsewhere.
LALOR made one of the best chase debuts in recent memory when winning the Arkle trial at this track in November 2018. The wheels came off thereafter; that was until his last start where he gave a bold sight in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase on New Years’ Day. He looked to appreciate the step up in trip and a repeat of that effort should see him go close here in a weaker race, albeit from a 4lb higher mark.
We know Lalor has plenty of class but there has to be a big question mark about whether he can repeat that previous effort. I have my doubts.
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES represents Dan and Harry Skelton. Two Taffs had been jocked up for this race earlier in the race so I was surprised to see this last-minute switch (and annoyed as I really fancies the chances of Two Taffs!) He was a leading fancy for the Bet Victor Gold Cup following his great run in the Plate; he bitterly disappointed that day and he did so again at Newbury on his penultimate start.
He made a return to form in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup where he finished a narrow 2nd. He’s been raised 3lbs for that up to 149; 2lbs higher than when 3rd in the Plate. In general, he’s performed well at Cheltenham and was a narrow 3rd in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase last season (meets Highway One O One on 1lb worse terms here)
WARTHOG won the aforementioned Caspian Caviar in game fashion. He’s only been given a 4lb rise for that which seems fair enough and he’s likely to front-run here. With just 6 starts over fences, there’s still plenty of scope for progression and he arrives on the back of two very good performances over course and distance. He’d be my choice of those at the top of the market.
COUNT MERIBEL made a very encouraging seasonal reappearance when chasing home Losintranslation but he didn’t perform as expected in the BetVictor Gold Cup next time. He’s still lightly raced over fences and this course winner might be underestimated in the market at his current price of 10/1.
MY WAY is the unexposed runner in the line-up having only had 3 starts over fences. Last seen chasing home the progressive Espoir De Guye, he was the only one capable of challenging him that day. He’s warrants respect despite being 1lb out of the weights.
GARDE LA VICTOIRE is an interesting one at a big price. He’s only raced three times since March 2018, in-part due to a tendon injury last season but he shaped with plenty of promise on his seasonal reappearance. Held up in rear, Richard Johnson nursed him along to chase the leading group as the race started to develop. He came there to dispute 3rd at the second last but he faded late on to finish 6th in the style of a horse that need the run, as he was entitled to do.
The handicapper has been kind to him, dropping him a further 3lbs for that run to a mark of 141; his lowest rating since 2014. He is 11yo now but Phillip Hobbs won this race with Wishfull Thinking in 2014 when he was that age. A 3-time course winner, he’s worth taking a chance on.
SELECTION: GARDE LA VICTOIRE (14/1)
2:25 – Paddy Power Cotswold Chase
This race has been a graveyard for favourites in recent years; the last winning favourite came in 1999.
SANTINI is likely to carry that burden this year. Very much a ‘marmite’ horse, he was the furthest thing from impressive when beating Now McGinty at Sandown. The track wouldn’t have suited but you’d have been hoping for something more from a Gold Cup contender.
The stiff nature of the New Course will be a much better match for him and it’s important to remember that he was a leading novice chaser last season. For all that he’s slow, this race often goes to slow horses (Frodon being an exception). It’s also interesting that no Gold Cup winner since 2000 has contested this race.
I couldn’t be backing Santini at a short price here for all that this test will suit.
BRISTOL DE MAI is his chief market rival at the time of writing. His 3rd in last year’s Gold Cup is the standout form on offer and he didn’t lose anything in defeat behind Lostintranslation last time. Given connection’s previous comments around having him fresh for the Gold Cup, I’m surprised to see him turn up here.
There’s only one race I’d consider backing Bristol De Mai in and he’s already lost that race this season. I’m happy to oppose the front two here.
SLATE HOUSE steps out of novice company here after an impressive win in the Kauto Star. His jumping can leave a lot to be desired but his engine is there for all to see; he would’ve been 4 from 4 this season if he didn’t fall in the BetVictor Gold Cup. Three of his career wins have come at this track and while this demands more, he’s progressive and his presence here certainly adds a layer of depth to this contest.
TOP VILLE BEN is an admirable stayer who’s handicap days are well behind him having gone up 10lbs for winning the Rowland Meyrick. A mark of 164 is the 2nd highest in the field; 1lb higher than Santini. One of the most likable horses in training, he’s a bold jumping front runner who will make this a test for his rivals. The question will come towards the finish: does he have the class to repel some classy opposition? He fell in last years RSA so he also has to prove his ability to handle the track.
DE RASHER COUNTER comes here after winning the Ladbrokes Trophy under talented conditional Ben Jones. He’s clearly on an upward curve but he’ll need to improve significantly again to take a race of this nature.
MISTER WHITAKER completes the field but he’d be a surprising winner. Winner of the Close Brothers in 2018, his one attempt at a staying trip came in last year’s Ultima; he was pulled up that day but he never got into a rhythm so it’s too soon to say he doesn’t stay but he certainly has to prove it here.
SELECTION: TOP VILLE BEN (15/2)
3:00 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (The Classic)
This race often supplies clues for the Festival and it can pay to look at the placed horses as well as the winner; The New One finished 2nd here before winning the Ballymore while the winner, At Fishers Cross, went on to win the Albert Bartlett.
Ante-post favourite Sporting John wasn’t declared so JP is represented by TIME FLIES BY. He made a good impression at the Showcase meeting in October, demonstrating his ability to handle testing ground. He backed that up with a solid 2nd place finish behind Israel Champ. Thrown into Grade 2 company for his hurdle debut, he shaped with a fair amount of promise considering his jumping was far less fluent than his more experienced rivals. He wasn’t given a hard time by Geraghty and the step up in trip should be in his favour. Nicky Henderson won this in 2018 & 2019 and the fact that he’s his sole representative might be a tip in itself. Watch the market.
KING ROLAND has carried a lofty reputation since his debut. Having lost on his first run of the season to Son of Camas, he won by 19 lengths on his next start in the style of a very talented horse. He’s always looked like he’d need at least 2m4f and so this stronger test of stamina is a positive for his chances. He’s a very exciting prospect.
PROTEKTORAT won (then lost, then won again) a listed race last time out over course and distance. He’s one of the more experienced runners in the field but he has to concede 5lbs to all of his rivals here and he’d probably want even softer ground. He needs to improve again to win this and I can’t have him as a 3/1 second favourite – he could be one for a festival handicap.
HARRY SENIOR makes much more appeal at the prices – 9/2 at the time of writing. He finished 4th behind Ofalltheginjoints on hurdles debut before running into the useful pair Sporting John & Edwardstone on subsequent starts. Stepped up to 2m4f next time, he looked better the further he went to win going away. He’s improved with every run and I can see him going very close here. It’s also worth noting that he was very well backed for the Leamington at Warwick before being withdrawn at the start.
HOUSE ISLAND is a listed bumper winner that’s taken well to hurdling, improving with every start. 2nd in a grade 2 on his penultimate start behind Enrilo (who was beaten comprehensively by Thyme Hill next time out) – he can go well but I’d be surprised if he won.
The Irish are represented by ROCKET LAD who beat subsequent dual winner Drury on his penultimate start. Found to be lame after disappointing in a listed race next time, he’s had nearly 3 months to recover and shouldn’t be underestimated.
RUTHLESS ARTICLE has raced exclusively on good ground so far. He steps up in class on his first run since September with plenty to prove. FRENCH KISS looks to have an impossible task.
SELECTION: HARRY SENIOR (9/2)
3:35 – galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle
Last years winner and reigning Stayers Hurdle champion Paisley Park returns after missing his intended reappearance date at Ascot in December.
He’s 5/4 for the Festival at present with the looming spectre of Benie Des Dieux lurking as a potential challenger for his crown.
It will take a big performance to stop him extending his winning streak to seven but he faces arguably his toughest opponent yet in the form of IF THE CAP FITS.
Harry Fry’s charge relished the step up in trip at Aintree to get up on the line ahead of Mares Hurdle winner, Roksana. Notably, a lot of Paisley Park’s previous opponents were well behind him that day. He made a pleasing reappearance in the Coral Hurdle, getting the better of Call me Lord – that rival won the International on his next start and the pair pulled 11 lengths clear of the rest.
Another interesting angle is that there doesn’t appear to be much pace in the race; without The Worlds End or Sam Spinner, there is no confirmed front runner which could lead to slowly run affair; that’s unlikely to benefit the stout stayer Paisley Park but it may benefit If The Cap Fits who had the required speed to place in an Elite Hurdle.
SUMMERVILLE BOY made all to win the Relkeel but this is his first attempt at 3 miles so I can’t imagine they’ll be too keen to go from the front here. His jumping has often let him down but he’s always displayed bundles of promise. This requires another step forward.
KILBRICKEN STORM or LISNAGAR OSCAR are other candidates to force the pace; both are on somewhat of a recovery mission and it would take a career best for either to trouble the front two in the market.
L’AMI SERGE is an enigmatic but talented performer who’s entitled to come on for his run in the Long Walk – his first run for 580 days. He’ll undoubtedly travel through the race with menace but Is highly unlikely to find anything for pressure; he’s the polar opposite of Paisley Park in that regard.
TOBEFAIR has been a star for Debra Hamer and he’s won twice over course and distance while WILLIAM HENRY demonstrated his aptitude around Cheltenham when winning the Coral Cup last season.
This is a fascinating race and it’s arguably the biggest test of Paisley Park’s career. I wouldn’t be quick to take him on but I’m fascinated to see him clash with If The Cap Fits.
SELECTION: PAISLEY PARK (8/11)*
*No Bet
4:10 – Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle
SOFIA’S ROCK heads the market. A talented performer on the level, he took well to hurdles and quickly progressed to earn a mark of 140. His first start in a handicap came in the Swinton in May 2019; he ran a superb race to finish just 3 ½ lengths behind Le Patriote.
He’s ran with credit behind Silver Streak in a listed race on his first start of the season before finishing 2nd off this mark in a handicap behind Highly Prized. With just 6 starts over hurdles, he remains open to improvement. The soft ground would be a concern given that he’s raced exclusively on a sound surface over hurdles to date.
AINCHEA is a fascinating contender. He suffered a nasty injury back in 2018 forcing him to miss all of last season. He made his comeback at Sandown after 700 days off the track; no doubt connections were just pleased to see him back on the track that day and he’s entitled to come on significantly for that outing.
Described as having a “massive engine” by Colin Tizzard, he has significant potential off a mark of 133 considering his novice hurdle form a couple of seasons ago. A tongue-tie goes on for the first time and while comes with risks attached, he could well prove a very well handicapped horse if retaining his ability.
NORTHERN BEAU has won four times over fences this season, with two of those victories coming at Cheltenham. Her most recent victory came last time out off a mark of 125 with connections looking to exploit the same mark back over hurdles. The concern is that her improvement has been a result of the switch to the larger obstacles; she was a maiden over hurdles who failed to win off 105 on her last start in that sphere. She needs to prove that she can match her chase form back over hurdles. If she does, she’s a big player.
WE RUN THE NIGHT won on all three starts in France (two hurdles, one chase). Assessing that form is no easy task and the market vibes are probably the best way to assess his chances. Ben Pauling said in a stable tour that “he could be anything”.
LUST FOR GLORY reverts back to hurdles but she’s performed poorly on both starts at Cheltenham to date; she has enough to prove at present.
BACK ON THE LASH is of interest back down in trip and Jonathan Burke is an interesting first-time jockey booking. He’s Martin Keighley’s only runner on the card and he won this race back in 2016. Just 3lbs higher than when winning at Exeter, he ran with credit at this track on his penultimate start and he could well outrun his odds (12/1 at present)
SELECTION: AINCHEA (13/2)
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