Ultima Handicap Chase – Discorama 20/1
Previous festival experience has proved pivotal to success here in recent years; just 1 winner from the last 11 had failed to run at a prior festival before lining up here.
Discorama has twice finished 2nd at Cheltenham; in the Martin Pipe (2018) & the National Hunt Chase (2019). That effort two years ago looks good now considering he finished ahead of Early Doors & Sire Du Berlais (3rd & 4th respectively) who both went on to win at Cheltenham last season.
He backed up last year’s festival run with a respectable 2nd in a Grade 1 at Punchestown. He was comfortably beaten by Delta Work that day but there was a lot to like about the way he stayed on under pressure, earmarking him as a staying chaser to follow.
On his seasonal reappearance, he ran a sound race behind leading National Hunt Chase fancy, Champagne Classic, who had the fitness edge having run earlier in the season. He ran well enough in the Troytown on his next run (staying on for 8th) before finishing a distance by Easywork back over hurdlers; he didn’t jump well that day and the 2m4f trip was definitely on the sharp side.
Following that run, Paul Nolan sent him for a wind operation and he hasn’t been seen on the track since; seeing the infamous w1 on the Cheltenham racecard will undoubtedly attract attention and it would be no shock if it were to help unlock some improvement.
The break between runs is not a concern; his record when running after a break greater than 6 weeks is: 11F222; he fell at the last when challenging the late Ballyward in a Grade 3 at Naas, with Chris’s Dream & Champagne Classic 10 lengths behind him when he departed.
Discorama is only a 7-year-old with only 7 chase starts to his name so he’s far from exposed and this strong test of stamina will suit him perfectly. He’s considered by connections to be a future Grand National horse and it would be no surprise to see him line up at Aintree in 2021.
The predicted soft ground will also be in his favour as he missed the Irish National on account of the sound surface.
The Irish don’t have the greatest record in this race but he’s been allowed in on his Irish mark and I expect him to run a big race.
County Hurdle – Aramon 16/1
Willie Mullins is a magical man, but he may have performed one of his greatest tricks yet in getting Aramon here off just 149; only 1 pound higher than his Irish mark.
If lining up here, he’ll make his handicap debut after 8 consecutive runs in Grade 1 company; it’s not as if he couldn’t compete either, as he managed to win and finish 2nd twice at the highest level.
Sent off just 8/1 for last years Supreme, he ran a far better race than a finishing position of 6th suggests. He made smooth headway to chase the leaders at 2 out (trading at a low of 3.0 in running) but he faded after the last on ground far slower than ideal for him.
After a below par seasonal reappearance in the Matheson (It’s been well documented that Willie’s have generally needed their first run), he ran a much better race in the Irish Champion Hurdle; I’d encourage everyone to re-watch that race as it was an eye-catching performance. Held up, he still hadn’t been asked for an effort at the 2nd last despite being 8th. Nursed along to close, he stayed on nicely to finish a fine 5th, only beaten 8.5 lengths.
Willie Mullins has performed very well in this race recently; in the last 10 years, he’s won it 4 times and had a further 7 finish in the first 4 from 27 runners.
Aramon’s path isn’t too dissimilar to Arctic Fire’s – the 2017 winner. He arrived here after running in 10 consecutive graded races, proving that class horses can win this race.
He also fits a few other trends for this race; 16 of the last 19 winners were either novices or second season hurdlers while 12 of the last 16 winners (including the last 4) began their career on the flat – Aramon ticks both of those boxes.
The long range weather forecast seems to indicate that the ground will quicken up throughout the week which will certainly help Aramon, who needs a quick surface to be at his best. He’s also likely to be suited by coming off the pace in a strongly run 2 miles.
He still has an entry for the Champion Hurdle but he’s unlikely to be good enough for that, even in an open year. This looks an ideal race for him and I imagine connections will be buoyed by avoiding an excessive rise in the weights.
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