Supreme: Fiddlerontheroof 7/1 EW
Arkle: Cash Back 7/1 EW
Ultima: Discorama 8/1 EW (Advised at 20/1 EW ante-post)
Champion Hurdle: Supasundae 12/1 EW (Advised at 33/1 EW ante-post)
Mares Hurdle: Benie Des Dieux 4/6
Novice Handicap Chase: Imperial Aura 5/1
National Hunt Chase: Lord Du Mesnil 7/1 EW (Advised at 25/1 EW ante-post)
1:30 – Supreme Novice Hurdle
Here it is – the moment we’ve all been waiting for! 4 days. 28 races. The pinnacle of National Hunt racing. The Cheltenham Festival begins now.
The Supreme is traditionally run at a very strong pace and can represent a very different test compared to some of the novice hurdles the contenders will have been competing in throughout the season. You need a horse with a high cruising speed, plenty of stamina and the ability to jump fluently at pace.
SHISHKIN has looked mightily impressive in his three (completed) starts under rules; 1 in a bumper and 2 over hurdles. After falling at the 2nd on hurdling debut (he was badly hampered so I would not hold that F against him), he showed an electric turn of foot on his next start at Newbury before winning the Sidney Banks, ahead of the 139-rated Shan Blue. There’s no doubting his talent but I just can’t have him at the prices; his lack of solid graded form concerns me and it wouldn’t be the first time a future champion trained by Nicky Henderson failed to win here. Since 1993, the likes of Sprinter Sacre, Binocular & Darlan were all beaten – only Altior managed to win.
ASTERION FORLONGE, like Shishkin, is owned by the Donnelly’s. Once seen as a stayer by Willie Mullins, he’s two from two over the minimum trip with his last victory coming in the Grade 1 Chanelle Pharma at the Dublin Racing Festival, routing the highly touted Easywork. Klassical Dream, Vautour and Champagne Fever all won the Supreme for Willie after winning the Chanelle Pharma so it’s a tried and tested route to victory. Given his form and connections, I believe he should be favourite. He’s likely to go from the front, using his assured stamina to make this a test for his rivals.
The last 11 winners had a minimum of 4 runs over hurdles before lining up here, which creates a slight doubt over the Donnelly runners. ABACADABRAS boasts a grade 1 win & plenty of experience. He previously beat Latest Exhibition (subsequent grade 1 winner) and finished 2nd to the imperious Envoi Allen. He was my idea of the winner for a while, but two major doubts crept in: his jumping can leave a lot to be desired and his stamina will probably be stretched by this race on soft ground; he’s a smooth traveller but I can see him failing to get up the hill in a similar fashion to last season’s Champion Bumper.
There’s a lot to like about FIDDLERONTHEROOF. The Tolworth winner possesses plenty of experience as well as grade 1 form. The last 3 Tolworth winners to run in the Supreme have a record of 141. Some have crabbed the form of his Tolworth win after the runner up, Jeremys Flame, was tailed off on her next start in handicap company; however, she was found to be lame post-race and it’s important to note that she was ridden to place in the Tolworth. The way Fiddlerontheroof powered up the hill in testing ground was impressive and it was a rare example if a horse quickening in those condtions. He’ll appreciate the soft ground and will certainly appreciate a stamina test at the trip. I do think he lacks a bit of tactical speed but I can see him running very well and staying on at the finish when others have cried enough.
CHANTRY HOUSE is an exciting prospect. His comfortable defeat of EDWARDSTONE in a bumper reads well and he’s been impressive in his two hurdle starts to date; I don’t think he has the necessary experience to win this. Similar comments apply to CAPTAIN GUINNESS who’s a headstrong individual. A strong pace could help him settle but he’ll need to if he’s to feature prominently here.
ELIXIR D’AINAY isn’t without a chance at a big price; 2nd to Envoi Allen in the Lawlor’s of Naas, he was too keen over 2m6f at the Dublin Racing Festival so the step back in trip looks sensible.
VERDICT: FIDDLERONTHEROOF EW
2:10 – Arkle Novice Chase
There is a lot of early pace on here, with multiple runners having made all in previous runs over fences.
Perhaps the one that’s most likely to lead is CASH BACK. An impressive winner of two novice chases, his performance at Naas was particularly eye-catching; he powered away in the closing stages to rout a decent field and Danny Mullins struggled to pull him up after the line. Naas has a stiff uphill finish so that offers encouragement that he’ll handle the infamous Cheltenham hill. He was beaten by Notebook by just ¾ L in the Irish Arkle but that was just his 3rd start over fences where as his Notebook was having his 4th and had already won a grade 1 that season. Willie has won 4 of the last 5 renewals of this race and all of those winners were French bred; he recently said that Cash Back reminds him of the “Iron Horse”, Un De Sceaux and the soft ground will be in his favour. There’s a lot to like.
NOTEBOOK is certainly the right favourite. A dual grade 1 winner over fences, he’s taken his form to the next level since switching to the larger obstacles and has beaten both his main market rivals that hail from Ireland. He can play up in the preliminaries and I’m sure the De Bromhead team will be taking precautions to prevent a repeat of his antics at Leopardstown (he’ll reportedly wear earplugs and has the option of wearing a hood in the parade ring). Settling a horse like him in the atmosphere of Cheltenham is easier said than done and you would have to be concerned if he became unruly before the race, although you can argue that it didn’t stop him winning at the Dublin Racing Festival.
FAKIR D’DOUDARIES has impressed with his slick jumping this term and he is already a grade 1 winner over fences, having won the Drinmore after Samcro’s dramatic late fall. He was subsequently defeated by Notebook when he was arguably unlucky; he was more patiently ridden than usual and Mark Walsh briefly lost an iron approaching the last. His jumping will be an asset and supporters will be hoping for a more positive ride but he no longer has a 7lb pull at the weights for being a 5-year-old. He’s apparently been working very well at home and he was a solid 4th in last year’s supreme but he does have something to find with the favourite.
A good 4th in last year’s Ballymore (four of the last twelve Arkle winners ran in the Ballymore previously) BREWIN’UPASTORM will appreciate a strong pace to aim at but his jumping will need to improve to feature and I’m concerned by his lack of graded chasing experience.
GLOBAL CITIZEN jumped well from the front at Kempton to win the Wayward Lad but he won’t get an easy lead here and he’s yet to prove his effectiveness on an undulating track.
ESPRIT DU LARGE is a grade 1 winner over fences and has improved with each run; his form received a boost when ROUGE VIF won the Kingmaker. I’m not convinced by the strength of the graded form in Britain.
VERDICT: CASH BACK EW
2:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase
Usually a fiercely run affair, stamina is essential and only 1 of the last 11 winners did not run at a previous festival.
DISCORAMA has twice finished 2nd at Cheltenham; in the Martin Pipe (2018) & the National Hunt Chase (2019). That effort two years ago looks good now considering he finished ahead of Early Doors & Sire Du Berlais (3rd & 4th respectively) who both went on to win at Cheltenham last season.
He backed up last year’s festival run with a respectable 2nd in a Grade 1 at Punchestown. He was comfortably beaten by Delta Work that day but there was a lot to like about the way he stayed on under pressure, earmarking him as a staying chaser to follow.
On his seasonal reappearance, he ran a sound race behind (former) leading National Hunt Chase fancy, Champagne Classic, who had the fitness edge having run earlier in the season. He ran well enough in the Troytown on his next run (staying on for 8th) before finishing a distance by Easywork back over hurdlers; he didn’t jump well that day and the 2m4f trip was definitely on the sharp side.
Following that run, Paul Nolan sent him for a wind operation and he hasn’t been seen on the track since; seeing the infamous w1 on the Cheltenham racecard will undoubtedly attract attention and it would be no shock if it were to help unlock some improvement. He also sports a first-time tongue tie – seven of the last eight winners of this race wore headgear and first-time headgear has often proved a catalyst to success at the Festival.
The break between runs is not a concern; his record when running after a break greater than 6 weeks is: 11F222; he fell at the last when challenging the late Ballyward in a Grade 3 at Naas, with Chris’s Dream & Champagne Classic 10 lengths behind him when he departed.
Discorama is only a 7-year-old with just 7 chase starts to his name so he’s far from exposed and this strong test of stamina will suit him perfectly. He’s considered by connections to be a future Grand National horse and it would be no surprise to see him line up at Aintree in 2021.
The predicted soft ground will also be in his favour as he missed the Irish National on account of the sound surface.
The Irish don’t have the greatest record in this race (0/24 since 2006) but he’s been allowed in on his Irish mark and I expect him to run a big race.
KILDISART looks to have a decent chance. 4th in last years JLT, he won impressively off 148 at Aintree last season and he made a welcome return to form last time out at Kempton. 150 is a fair mark and the application of first time cheekpieces adds further intrigue.
At a bigger price, BIG RIVER is worth considering. A staying on 4th in this race last year, he made a welcome return to form when winning at Kelso and he’s only 1lb higher than 12 months ago. Last year’s winner, Beware the Bear, was 4th in the previous renewal and returning horses have a good record in this race.
VERDICT: DISCORAMA EW
3:30 – Champion Hurdle
One of the most open Champion Hurdles in history. You can make a reasonable case for plenty in the line-up but this isn’t a race to get too involved in.
Long term followers of mine will know that I’ve been banging the SUPASUNDAE drum since January and I haven’t seen anything to discourage me. His run in the Irish Champion Hurdle was better than I could’ve hoped for; he’s a notoriously stuffy horse that doesn’t come right until the Spring so it was a superb effort to finish 4th at the Dublin Racing Festival, just 5 lengths behind Honeysuckle.
Jessica Harrington and Robbie Power have been glowing in their praise of him since that’s run and he’s entitled to improve significantly for that as he’s never been one to perform that well on his first run of the season.
Winner of the Coral Cup in 2017, he’s raced in 14 consecutive grade 1’s since then – winning 3 (including two over 2 miles, an irish champion hurdle + punchestown champion hurdle & won the Aintree hurdle ahead of Bueveur D’Air last season) and only finishing outside the front 3 on two occasions.
In a race lacking quality, he’s a proven grade 1 performer who’s won at Cheltenham and he should give his running. There hasn’t been a 10-year-old winner since 1981 but in a year that’s the furthest thing from vintage, I can see that stat being broken.
He’s versatile in regards to ground but the slower surface will probably benefit him as it will slow the others down. The presence of Petit Mouchoir, Cornerstone Lad & Not So Sleepy will ensure a strong pace for him to aim at which will bring his stamina into play. He won’t cruise up on the bridle but he’ll certainly be staying on at the finish.
VERDICT: SUPASUNDAE EW
4:10 – Mares Hurdle
The clash of two superstars: Benie Des Dieux vs Honeysuckle. What a race we have on our hands!
The fact that both would’ve had a leading chance in the Champion Hurdle shows the strength of the mares and the dire straits of the 2-mile hurdle division.
I’m on team BENIE DES DIEUX. Since joining Willie Mullins, she’s won 8 of her 9 starts (including the 2018 Mares Hurdle and three other grade 1’s) with her only ‘defeat’ coming in this race last year when she looked sure to run out a comfortable winner but for a final flight fall. She was lauded as a huge danger to Paisley Park when winning the Galmoy on her last start but the performance that stands out to me came at Auteuil where she faced De Bon Couer who was a superstar in France. She had won 13 of her 15 starts and was sent off a 4/6 favourite to win the French Champion Hurdle for the 2nd time. Benie beat her comfortably by 6.5 lengths.
That performance confirmed that we’re dealing with a mare of extreme quality. She’s won over a variety of trips on ground varying from good to heavy; she’s very versatile and we’re yet to see a chink in her armour.
Willie has won nine of the twelve renewals of this race (would’ve been ten but for Benie’s fall last season). His total record in this race reads: 21 runners – 9 wins & 5 placed. A superstar mare trained by the master is hard to oppose.
HONEYSUCKLE is, in her own right, a fantastic mare. Seven from seven under rules including three grade 1’s, her win in the Irish Champion Hurdle left many hoping to see her in the feature race on Tuesday rather than this contest. She isn’t the slickest over her obstacles but defied that impairment to beat the boys over two miles. There’s little doubt that two and a half miles is her optimum trip and she’s proven to be versatile in terms of underfoot conditions. She’s a worthy rival to Benie and this promises to be a fantastic clash.
Defending champion ROKSANA looks to be playing for place money but I do think she’ll get third ahead of STORMY IRELAND; she’ll run a bold race from the front but I don’t think the she’s suited by the trip at Cheltenham; she was labouring in 4th when Benie fell last year and was the only one not to be hampered so her proximity to Roksana flattered her.
VERDICT: BENIE DES DIEUX (In doubles/treble with Tiger Roll & Paisley Park)
4:50 – Northern Trust Novices’ Handicap Chase
With just 7lbs separating the top and bottom weight in this race last year – you will struggle to find a more compressed handicap all season!
11 of the last 12 winners had run no more than 4 times over fences while 14 of the last 15 winners hadn’t won more than twice over fences; you’re looking for one that hasn’t shown their hand and has the potential to progress beyond handicaps.
IMPERIAL AURA looks to have an excellent chance. A facile winner of a novice chase at odds of 1/25, he then finished a solid 2nd to the useful Pym over an extended 3m1f. He travelled very powerfully throughout but was outstayed by the RSA hopeful. After missing an intended engagement at Huntingdon (the meeting was abandoned), Kim Bailey was at odds to get a 3rd chase start into him to ensure he qualified for this race.
He turned up on Trials Day at a time when the Kim Bailey yard were under a cloud; they had just 1 winner from 27 runners in the previous month and the runners were on the easy list following a string of disappointing performances.
Alas, Imperial Aura opened as a 5/2 favourite for the competitive Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase. He drifted alarmingly before the off to 5/1, indicating that he wasn’t expected to win; Kim Bailey said in a recent interview that they “weren’t coming here thinking they’d win”. Despite this, he ran a superb race to finish 2nd behind the rapidly progressive Simply The Betts. The pair pulled 11 lengths clear of 3rd placed On The Slopes who bolted up on his next start and is now being aimed at the Grand Annual.
The time of that race was very good (Simply The Betts ran the final circuit 20 lengths quicker than Cepage, who won a handicap over the same distance on the same day) and this race is generally a very strong piece of form; it has provided three of the last seven winners of the Northern Trust Novices’ Handicap and last year’s renewal produced a JLT 4th (Kildisart) and the 3rd in the Plate (Spritofthegames)
If Imperial Aura does run well, be sure to back SIMPLY THE BETTS for the Plate!
VERDICT: IMPERIAL AURA
5:30 – National Hunt Chase
Given the demands this race places on a novice, it’s not surprising that experience often comes to the fore; the last 10 winners averaged 7.1 chase starts between them.
I wrote a piece a few weeks ago on LORD DU MESNIL; you’ll struggle to find a more experienced novice chaser in training. He’s had 10 chase starts in Britain and 6 in France but he’s only just started to fulfil his potential. Starting the season on a mark of 115, he hasn’t been out of the first two in his 6 runs this campaign. He won both the Tommy Whittle and the Last Fling; winning two very competitive handicaps at Haydock within 9 days is an impressive feat. Described as a “Future Grand National horse” by connections, he loves soft ground as is a very efficient jumper. An official rating of 153 makes him the highest rated horse in the race, for all he’s had more chances to show his ability than the others; runners rated 150+ are 4/10 in the last 9 years.
Richard Hobson is in superb form; just three of his twelve runners since the start of February have finished outside the front two, including four wins. Sam Waley-Cohen is a great jockey booking (he won the race in 2009 on Tricky Trickster)
The bulk of the ante-post discussion surrounded Champagne Classic and CAREFULLY SELECTED; I was firmly in the champagne camp and his absence was undoubtedly a blow to many ante-post punters. Carefully Selected is a classy horse who’s been aimed at this race all season after finishing 3rd in a grade 1 novice hurdle over 3 miles at the end of last season. Sent off at odds on for his 3 chase starts to date, his jumping has left a lot to be desired which greatly concerns me given the demands of the National Hunt Chase.
SPRINGFIELD FOX is a superb jumper and deserves to take his chance here after two decisive handicap victories.
It’s always important to consider the mounts of Jamie Codd and Derek O’Connor. The former rides RAVENHILL for Gordon Elliott. He does have plenty of chase experience but he did fall when last seen over three months ago; no last time out faller has won this race in the last 30 years.
FORZA MILAN has the services of Derek O’Connor. Formerly with Jonjo O’Neill, he was last seen finishing behind Carefully Selected at Naas. He looks like he’ll relish a strong test of stamina and isn’t without a chance.
VERDICT: LORD DU MESNIL EW
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