Ballymore: Envoi Allen 4/6
RSA: Minella Indo 7/2
Coral Cup: Protektorat 14/1 EW
Champion Chase: Defi Du Seuil 5/4
Cross Country: Tiger Roll 10/11
Boodles/Fred Winter: Night Edition 22/1 EW
Champion Bumper: Queens Brook 9/1 EW
1:30 – Ballymore Novice Hurdle
Gordon Elliott gave everyone a scare when he openly admitted to considering the Supreme for his star novice ENVOI ALLEN. Luckily for many ante-post punters, he runs here instead and he has outstanding claims. Seven from seven under rules including a three grade 1’s (two over hurdles and one in bumpers), his form has received numerous boosts. He beat leading Martin Pipe fancy, Front View on his hurdles debut before winning the Royal Bond; he had subsequent grade 1 winner Abacadabras in 2nd with Irish Champion hurdle runner-up Darver Star back in 3rd. Those two performed very well in the Supreme and the Champion Hurdle respectively; his form continues to get stronger.
Stepped up to 2m4f in the Lawlor’s of Naas, he won comfortably enough but some have criticised that performance, stating that he didn’t pull away in the style of a horse that fully relishes the intermediate trip, but it’s important to remember that Naas has a stiff uphill finish and not many draw clear up that hill. He’s never been a horse to win by wide margins but he always looks in control and he’s a very efficient jumper. His Champion Bumper victory has worked out well and it proved his ability to handle the track and the travel involved. He’s a short price but he deserves to be.
THE BIG BREAKAWAY and THE BIG BREAKAWAY are both lovely types and deserve to take a chance in a race of this nature. This represents a big step up in class for both and I worry that this might come too soon in their careers. They’ll be top chasing prospects for next term.
SPORTING JOHN has been brought along steadily by Phillip Hobbs but he’d always shown a high level of ability. He beat Harry Senior on debut over two miles (who already had a run under his belt) with a further three next time out winners in behind. He still had plenty of work to do approaching the last (traded at 100 in running) but he powered home once Barry Geraghty got serious with him. He won another race at Exeter before stepping up in class and distance at Ascot. He ran out a ready winner that, beating the useful Pipesmoker with Master Debonair failing to stay the trip. He looks the chief danger to the favourite.
VERDICT: ENVOI ALLEN
2:10 – RSA Novice Chase
Traditionally a trial for future Gold Cup contenders, the last 18 winners have contested a graded chase while 19 of the last 21 winners had at least 3 runs over fences; you need a horse that’s tough and battle hardened. Despite their only being ten runners, there is plenty of depth to this contest.
The one I can’t have at the head of the market is CHAMP. He’s a very inconsistent jumper – brilliant at times but equally poor on occasion which was demonstrated when he fell in the Dipper. He just appears to lose concentration which you can’t afford to do at the highest level. He reminds me a bit of Might Bite – very talented by equally quirky. Nicky was able to get another run into Might Bite after he fell in the Kauto Star but he was unable to do the same with Champ as the meeting at Kelso he was intended to run at was abandoned.
MINELLA INDO defied the trends to win the Albert Bartlett as a lightly raced maiden. The manner of that win was nothing short of spectacular; he was keen throughout the gruelling contest but still managed to win in the style of a very good horse. He’s had another light campaign to this point with just two starts over fences to his name; beaten by Laurina on his chase debut over an inadequate trip, he put in a nice round of jumping to beat subsequent grade 3 winner Captain CJ on his most recent outing. He has to improve on what he’s shown over fences but I’m struggling to shake the memory of last year’s Albert Bartlett and the drastic improvement he showed. He looks like a typical RSA winner and Henry De Bromhead will have schooled him a ton at home.
ALLAHO twice finished behind Minella Indo in Grade 1 novice hurdles last term and I thought he would stand a better chance in the Marsh. He was very impressive on his last start over 2m5f, going enthusiastically from the front. For my mind, he has something to find with Minella Indo and I’m not sure he’ll relish this test at this stage of his chasing career.
COPPERHEAD’s rapid improvement culminated in an impressive win in the Reynoldstown on heavy ground. In an attritional affair, he beat Two For Gold by 17 lengths; fancied pair Pym and Sam Brown both pulled up having never looked comfortable which does dent the form to a certain extent. Regardless, it was hard not to be impressed with him that day and he looks fully equipped to deal with a test like the RSA. A good jumper with plenty of experience, he looks to have a good chance of being the 3rd horse in 9 years to complete the Reynoldstown/RSA double. If there is a concern, it would be that his last race might’ve taken a lot out of him.
It’s interesting that Robbie Power rides SLATE HOUSE as opposed to Copperhead. In an interview, puppy seemed to imply that he had the choice but the vibes about the Kauto Star winner were stronger. He has plenty of talent, but he does put in some poor jumps and he’s coming off the back of a brutal race in the Cotswold Chase.
PYM was never at the races when pulling up in the Reynoldstown where the heavy ground counted against him. Prior to that, he’d looked progressive over fences and his defeat of Imperial Aura marked him down as a promising stayer. Usually a good jumper, he can run well at a price for all that he lacks the class of some of his rivals (Perhaps I’m just trying to justify my failed ante-post bet with this one!)
EASY GAME is another I backed ante-post following his narrow defeat to Faugheen in the Flogas. I did so on the belief that, if he did run here, he’d probably be his stable’s sole representative so Allaho’s inclusion does concern me. He’s untested at the trip but the Flogas has provided four RSA winners in the last eleven years. Two of Willie’s four RSA winners ran in the Flogas; Florida Pearl in 1998 and Cooldine in 2009 both completed the double. With the race looking strong, I wouldn’t be in a rush to back him at his current price of 10/1 and I don’t hold out much hope for my ante-post bet.
VERDICT: MINELLA INDO
2:50 – Coral Cup
One of the toughest races of the week, only one of the last ten winners went off shorter than 10/1 (Aux Ptits Soins in 2015, 9/1). No first season novice has ever won the race and we’ve generally seen class prevail here; ten of the last eleven winners went on to contest a grade 1 or grade 2 on their next start.
JP McManus looks to hold a leading chance with DAME DE COMPAGNIE, BIRCHDALE and recent purchase ALFA MIX. They have differing profiles and they all have a chance but I’m prepared to look elsewhere.
PROTEKTORAT looks to hold a leading chance. A 5-year-old French bred with just 8 starts over hurdles, he fits the profile of a typical winner. French breds have a great record in the race; they’ve won five of the last ten renewals, four of which were aged five or six which highlights their precocious nature. Furthermore, 31% of 5-year-old runners have won or placed in the last decade.
He’s run twice at Cheltenham (eight of the last ten winners had run at Cheltenham before). He beat Imperial Alcazar and Welsh Saint in a listed race, both of whom won on their next run. Last seen at Trials Day finishing 3rd to leading Albert Bartlett contender Harry Senior (giving him 5lbs). He was a tad unlucky that day as he found himself behind a wall of horses as the front few kicked for home. Still, he’s proven himself in graded company and still has potential to improve with just 8 hurdle starts to his name.
A powerful traveller that jumps well, a test like the Coral Cup should suit him perfectly. Owner John Hales tasted success in this race with Aux Ptits Soins in 2015 and the Skelton’s have proven themselves in readying one for a big handicap at the Festival.
VERDICT: PROTEKTORAT EW
3:30 – Champion Chase
The absence of Altior is a sad one – this was shaping up to be the best race of the festival but National Hunt racing has a habit of depriving us of the clashes we most want to see.
DEFI DU SEUIL is likely to be a short price in Altior’s absence. His JLT win over Lostintranslation has worked out well and he’s six from eight at Cheltenham. I doubted his jumping last season but he’s come on leaps and bounds in that department this term. His new found slickness over an obstacle has allowed him to become a top-class two-mile chaser. He won the Tingle Creek with a great leap at the last before beating Un De Sceuax again in the Clarence House; the latter was a steadily run affair but the turn of foot he showed between the final two flights was seriously impressive. In a small field that lacks a certain pace angle, that acceleration could prove the difference.
CHACUN POUR SOI beat Defi at Punchestown on just his second start for Willie Mullins. I wouldn’t be in a rush to take that form literally given that Defi had a long season and probably wasn’t at his best that day. Both have improved that clash and CPS still has plenty of scope to keep progressing given that this will be just his fifth start for Willie. His defeat of Min in the Dublin Chase is the best two-mile form on offer this season (on times) but there is a doubt about his ability to handle Cheltenham given that he’s never been here.
Tactics could be key here – I believe that CPS’s best chance of winning is to make all. He’s a good jumper and with no clear pace angle, it gives him an opportunity to set the fractions.
Paul Nicholls is represented by POLITOLOGUE and DYNAMTIE DOLLARS. The former has finished 4th and 2nd in the last two renewals of this race but he was beaten convincingly by Defi when last seen in the Tingle Creek. Dynamite Dollars made a very encouraging reappearance behind Altior in the Game Spirit. He faded late on but showed up well for a long way and he’s entitled to improve significantly for that. He was forced into making the pace last time out when BUN DORAN fell early on – he could go from the front here but he’s far from certain to. The concerns with DD would be the potential bounce factor and the fact that he was beaten on his two runs at Cheltenham. He remains with plenty of potential but he could be one for the Celebration Chase at Sandown later in the year.
SCEAU ROYAL is a regular in these races. A powerful traveller, he often runs well but finds one or two too good at the highest level.
VERDICT: DEFI DU SEUIL
4:10 – Cross Country
TIGER ROLL bid for his 5th Cheltenham Festival win and a hat-trick of victories in the Cross Country. He made a very encouraging reappearance in the Boyne Hurdle, where he travelled well for a long way before tiring late on. Gordon Elliott made no secret that he was not fully tuned up for that effort but he was understandably delighted with that run and it was great to see him travel with zest and enthusiasm. There’s very little to say about him that hasn’t already been said – he’s a legend of a horse and a repeat of last years dominant display would be more than enough to win this again.
EASYSLAND is a new and worthy challenger. He’s won every start in this discipline in which he’s completed (he did fall a couple of times early into his cross-country career). Crucially, he’s also won at Cheltenham; only 3 winners of this had not previously run at the course. He was a good winner here in December, defying a mark of 139 to win comfortably. He’s had a prep run since then and has been notably been purchased by JP McManus; he’s won the race 6 times and has notoriously targeted this race. It would be fair to say that he’s the toughest rival that Tiger Roll has faced in this race, but he is only a 6-year-old and he may be one for the future (I’d be half tempted to bet on him winning this in 2021!)
This looks to be a match between the front two in the market.
VERDICT: TIGER ROLL
4:50 – Boodles (Fred Winter) Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Until Band of Outlaws victory last season, there hadn’t been a winning favourite since 2010. In that time, six of the eight winners returned at price of 25/1 or greater. Juvenile’s can improve dramatically throughout the season so this is a tough race to gauge. Keep to small stakes.
A few trends to note: 10/15 had three starts over hurdles, only 2/10 had won more than once and 7/15 had raced against their elders.
It’s no surprise to see JP McManus with a strong hand in a Cheltenham handicap. ARAMAX and MICK PASTOR are nice types but they’ve been well found in the market so I’m prepared to look elsewhere.
Gordon Elliott has talked up the chances of TRONADOR during the preview evening circuit which is interesting considering he also has Aramax, RECENT REVELATIONS, GEALACH & Saint D’OROUX. Elliott has a superb record in this race but it’s unusual to see him with so many in this year’s renewal. He’s only had twelve runners in the last nine years – make of that what you will.
I quite like the chances of NIGHT EDITION at a decent price. He made an encouraging debut for David Pipe when 4th at Taunton behind the re-opposing BLACKO and ZOFFEE. He was conceding experience to both of those rivals and he did show up well for a long way; he wasn’t given a hard time once he was beaten and it left plenty to work on.
Stepped up to grade 2 company on his next start on Trials Day, he ran a superb race to finish 2nd to the more experienced GALAHAD QUEST. It was encouraging to see him stay on well up the hill and it was a massive step up on his hurdles debut. It wasn’t a strong Triumph trial but the 4th place horse, Monte Cristo, did win on his next run to give the form some substance.
Night Edition broke his maiden against his elders at Ludlow in cosy fashion. Given a more prominent ride, he travelled best throughout and always looked in control. Tom Scudamore never had to ask his mount for a serious effort as he cruised to the lead on the bridle. The half length margin of victory definitely understated his dominance.
He’s clearly progressing nicely and he boosts all important Cheltenham form. French breds have a good record in this race and he is well bred; by Authorized out of listed winner on the flat who’s a half-sister to Melon. 133 is a fair mark; horses rated 124-134 have won 13 of the last 15 winners of this race. David Pipe won this in 2007 with Gaspara and he’s had a further four placed from just 13 runners in the race.
VERDICT: NIGHT EDITION EW
5:30 – Champion Bumper
APPRECIATE IT heads the market after winning a grade 2 at the Dublin Racing Festival. That was a seriously impressive performance over what looked like a stacked field (although his main market rival, Eric Bloodaxe, was effectively pulled up after reportedly feeling lame). Willie Mullins has a terrific record in this race; he’s won it nine-times and managed a 1-2-3-5 in 2018. It’s worth considering that when he’s had multiple runners in the race, it’s paid to look beyond the shortest in the betting: Relegate and Briar Hill were 25/1 (2018 & 2013) while Champagne Fever was 16/1 – FERNY FOLLOW and FIVE BAR BRIAN are his other representatives this year.
Appreciate It deserves to be favourite but he’s a very short price – on that basis, I’m happy to take him on.
QUEENS BROOK looked very good when winning at Gowran Park on heavy ground. She powered clear at the finish in very testing conditions and reports about her have been glowing. Jamie Codd is very sweet on her and Gordon Elliott has compared her to previous Champion Bumper winner, Fayonagh, saying that “On homework, you’d say this mare is a nicer mare (than Fayonagh)”. Elliott is very selective in sending horses here; he’s only ran three in as many years, resulting in two winners and a fourth. Clearly, he only sends his best and Jamie Codd has ridden both of his winners. When asked about his best chance of the week, Jamie responded by saying: “All three have chances… but I’m really looking forward to Queens Brook and finding out how good she is”. Soft ground is a big help and she can go very well.
David Pipe has two live chances with ISRAEL CHAMP and PANIC ATTACK. The former has won two listed bumpers and is only rated 1lb lower than Appreciate It. He also boats winning form at Cheltenham so he looks a solid proposition. Panic Attack bolted up in a listed mares bumper at Market Rasen on debut when trained by Willie Mullins. I was there that day and you couldn’t help but be impressed by the performance considering her rivals had already displayed a good level of form. The fact that the 1-2 in that race were both Irish trained isn’t surprising given they normally excel in bumpers; 20 of the 27 winners of the Champion Bumper were trained in Ireland.
THE GLANCING QUEEN is running in the race for the 2nd time having finished 5th in last years renewal. She’s been off the track since winning the grade 2 mares’ bumper at Aintree and this is a good option for her as they’ll be keen to retain her novice status for next season. Lat years renewal has worked out extremely well so she isn’t without a chance at a big price, if returning at peak form.
VERDICT: QUEENS BROOK EW
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