Marsh: Itchy Feet 9/2
Pertemps: The Storyteller 12/1 Ante-Post
Ryanair: A Plus Tard 7/4
Stayers’ Hurdle: Ronald Pump W/O Paisley 10/1 EW
The Plate: Simply The Betts 6/1 Ante-Post
Mares’ Novice Hurdle: Dolcita 15/2 EW
Kim Muir: Kilfilum Cross 33/1 Ante-Post
1:30 – Marsh Novice Chase
In nine renewals, all nine winners ran in a graded chase while seven of the nine winners won a graded chase on their last start. Furthermore, all nine winners had run over hurdles at a previous festival.
ITCHT FEET fits the bill following his impressive win in the Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown; Defi Du Seuil did the double last year. It was a good performance considering it was only his second run over fences and his first came in a three-runner race. I was taken by the way he travelled to join the leaders approaching two out; he pecked on landing at that fence but he was straight on the bridle after and he powered to a comfortable victory, ahead of the re-opposing MIDNIGHT SHADOW. A good 3rd in last year’s Supreme, the ground will be no problem and he looks to hold a leading chance.
Willie Mullins has won four renewals of this race. It was as slight surprise to see Allaho not run here but that decision was probably be made with the knowledge that FAUGHEEN was coming here. A Neptune and a Champion Hurdle winner, he’s a remarkable horse; to win two grade 1 novice chases as a 12-year-old is unheard of and his win in the Flogas will live long in the memory of many racing fans; it’s worth noting that none of Willie’s four winners ran in the Flogas, which tends to be more of an RSA trial. It would be phenomenal if he were to win here. Willie is also represented by dual Champion Hurdle runner-up MELON. He comes alive in the Spring and the reapplication of cheekpieces is a plus but he does need to improve on his chase form to date. BAPAUME and TORNADO FLYER also represent Mullins but both need to find extra in this company.
MISTER FISHER stayed on nicely to beat Good Boy Bobby over course and distance (that rival was well behind Itchy Feet on his next outing) and he’s shown enough pace to win over two miles. He was considered for the Arkle but this looks a more suitable race for him. He prefers good ground so he’d want it to dry out as much as possible.
SAMCRO is somewhat of an enigma. He’s had a wind operation after a tame finishing effort behind Faugheen and any market support for him would be interesting.
RESERVE TANK hasn’t fully convinced over fences yet but he did thrive in the spring last season. He hasn’t been seen since November and he may be one for Aintree or Punchestown (where he won two grade 1’s last season)
SAINT SONNET is a dark horse for Paul Nicholls. I remember him talking his chances up at a preview night before he’d even run for him. He comfortable won at Catterick and while he boasts some good French form, it would be some training performance for him to win this on just his second start in Britain.
VERDICT: ITCHY FEET
2:10 – Pertemps Handicap Hurdle
I have mixed feelings about this race. We all know that racing is full of plots, but this race actively encourages uncompetitive behaviour – only two of the last twenty-three Pertemps Final winners had won a qualifier. In qualifiers, 6th is the new 1st!
I backed THE STORYTELLER for this after he snuck into 6th in the Leopardstown qualifier. Three of the last four winners had qualified through that race and Davy Russell clearly did not ride him to win that day. A winner of the Plate back in 2017, he was a tad short of top class over fences but he’s rated 16lbs lower over hurdles so it was a shrewd move by connections to go down this route. The 7lb rise by the British handicapper is fair given his previous festival exploits and Davy Russell has ridden three of the last four winners of this race; his patient style is well suited to the new course. He’s a short price now but his claims are obvious and it would be a surprise if he wasn’t bang there at the finish, especially when you consider that all seven of Elliott’s runners in the last four years have finished in the top five.
ROCKET LAD is an interesting one. He showed some smart form in bumpers before translating that ability to hurdles earlier in the winter. He broke his maiden at Gowran Park in a race that’s worked out extremely well; Drury (2nd) has won twice subsequently while Run Wild Fred (3rd) has won two of his next three starts (including a grade 3 when lowering the colours of Lord Royal) while Silver Sheen (4th) won his next three and was a leading fancy for this before being ruled out through injury.
He was lame on his next run before reappearing in the grade 2 novice hurdle on Trials Day. He travelled like a dream throughout and looked a real threat on the turn for home but he pulled up quickly without being asked for an effort. On the back of that, it was very surprising to see him run just 8 days later in a Pertemps qualifier. It was a farce of a race, with just 7 runners (and one refusing to race) and Rocket Lad plodding out the back without ever being put into the race. Still, his 6th place finish ensured his place in this race and this race. There are two possibilities: this is a plot or the horse has completely lost his way. He sports a first-time hood and Patrick Mullin, his cousin, is is an eye-catching jockey booking – from 23 rides, he’s ridden 6 winners & 9 places for Emmet which is a fine strike rate. He’s still lightly raced and this has been a race where inexperienced, Irish runners have thrived in recent years. There are risks attached, but he’s worth a small EW bet.
2:50 – Ryanair Chase
I’ve flipped and flopped over this race but I’ve finally settled on A PLUS TARD. He has the typical profile for a race like this and his emphatic victory in the Close Brothers lives fresh in the memory.
MIN is a good rival and it’s unfortunate that Chacun Pour Soi couldn’t show what that form at Dublin was worth. He looks in need of a greater stamina test these days, as he demonstrated when winning at Aintree – beating the Champion Chase winner Politologue by 20 lengths in the Melling. He’s yet to win at Cheltenham and while chasing home Altior isn’t bad form, I have a feeling that he’s missed his chance to win here.
3:30 – Stayers’ Hurdle
It’s very hard to oppose PAISLEY PARK. Last year’s champion has looked even more impressive this term; he looks to travel better in his races now, which he demonstrated when beating SUMMERVILLE BOY with ease in the Cleeve, despite the latter getting the run of the race from the front. That rival is currently the 2nd favourite which indicates the strength of the Emma Lavelle trained star. Paisley has all the attributes you look for in a staying hurdler and he looks very solid.
EMITOM won the Rendlesham in good style last time out and there should be more to come from the lightly raced 6-year-old. Warren Greatrex has always raved about this horse and he’s no stranger to success in this race having won it with Cole Harden in 2015. There are more races to be won with him but it would be a big shock if he turned over the favourite here.
The most interesting outsider to me is RONALD PUMP. He’s improved significantly since winning a handicap off 102 in December 2018. His run in the Leopardstown Pertemps qualifier was very eye-catching. In rear throughout, he finished strongest of all to finish just one length behind Treacysenniscorthy (who made all), conceding over two stone to that rival. That performance saw him earn an Irish mark of 150 but the British handicapper took no chances with him, giving him a 6lb rise to 156. That makes him the joint-second highest runner in the race and this 7-year-old can continue on his steep upward curve. He was found to have an overreach after his most recent run over fences so you can discount that effort. He’s a thorough stayer and I really like the chances of him finishing behind Paisley Park.
4:10 – Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase
A race where lightly raced chasers have thrived in recent years, seven of the last ten winners had nine or less starts over fences while last years 1-2 only had thirteen chase starts between them.
I advised everyone to back SIMPLY THE BETTS if Imperial Aura performed well on Tuesday. He won comfortably with the front two pulling nine lengths clear of Hold The Note in 3rd, confirming that the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase on Trials Day was a very good race. The times already suggested as much; Simply the Betts ran the final circuit twenty lengths quicker than Cepage, who won a handicap chase over the same on distance on the same day. He took a pull on the turn for home as subsequent winner On The Slopes took up the running, but Simply The Betts picked up really nicely after the 2nd last, staying on really nicely up the hill. A 9lb rise now looks very lenient and he could be one to line up in next years Ryanair if he continues on this steep upward curve. He’s likely to be prominent (which suits in this race) and it’s hard to see him being far away at the business end.
4:50 – Mares’ Novice Hurdle
There are only four previous renewals to assess but the winners all have three things in common: They were French bred 5-year-olds trained by Willie Mullins.
This isn’t too surprising when you consider the proficiency of Willie in training mares and the fact that French breds tend to be quite precious.
DOLCITA fits the bill and has shown a fair amount on her two starts in Ireland. She bolted up in a maiden hurdle at Tramore; the 3rd won her next star while the 4th was 2nd next time out. Interestingly, this was the same race that Laurina made her Irish debut in and, like her, Dolcita is owned by Sullivan bloodstock; they’ve won this race for the last two years and did not have runners in either of the first two renewals. She was actually the ante-post favourite for this race on the back of her maiden victory.
She then lined up for the Grade 3 Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle. Seemingly the unfancied one of the Mullins trio, she drifted significantly in the market but ran a great race to be 3rd, just three lengths behind Minella Melody and half a length behind COLREEVY. Considering she was conceding experience to those rivals, this was an encouraging effort. She also made a few jumping errors at crucial stages but that experience should’ve done her a world of good.
MINELLA MELODY looks a stayer at this trip and may find this too sharp a test but she does warrant plenty of respect. She represents the same connections as Honeysuckle who would’ve surely won this race last year if she turned up. She deserves her place at the top of the market on what she’s achieved so far.
In truth, this is a very open race and you can build a case for many but I’ll take a chance on Dolcita.
5:30 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir
I backed KILFILUM CROSS a few weeks back following his 2nd at Kempton. He’s 1lb lower than when finishing 2nd to Any Second Now in last year’s renewal; that looks like good form now, with the Ted Walsh trained winner emerging as a leading Grand National challenger while a host of runners down the field have won subsequently. That was only his 2nd run for Henry Oliver and just his 4th run over fences so it was a very impressive effort to run so well in such a competitive handicap. It’s worth noting that six of the last eleven winners of this race had won or placed at a previous festival while the last five winners had not won earlier in the season – Kilfilum Cross fits both of those trends.
While he hasn’t been at his best this season, he ran well on his seasonal reappearance over an inadequate trip and there were excuses for his two below par efforts this term. His Kempton run was a welcome return to form and the 1lb drop in the weights for that effort seems generous. He’s been lightly raced for a 9-year-old with just 13 starts under rules (9 over fences) to his name so he still has potential to improve. Regular rider, Dave Crosse, reportedly said he’s the best horse he’s sat on and that he’s a 150+ horse in the making.
LE BREUIL warrants plenty of respect given his win in last year’s National Hunt Chase. Jamie Codd renews the winning partnership and he’s won four of the last eleven renewals of this race. This is always a competitive race but he’d be my bet if I hadn’t already backed Kilfilum Cross.
CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM caught the eye when staying on into 3rd in the Scilly Isles. His jumping has left a lot to be desired on his three starts over fences to date; his last run was a small step in the right direction but he’ll need to be even better in a big field with 21 fences to negotiate. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up and he’s got the right man onboard in Derek O’Connor so improvement isn’t out of the question.
BOB MAHLER represents the jockey/trainer combination that won with Missed Approach in 2018. Liked Missed Approach, he was last seen running in the Edinburgh National (Bob Mahler 1st, Missed Approach was 2nd in 2018) so this has been a tried and tested route. He wears blinkers for the first-time and has winning form at Cheltenham but only one winner in the last seventeen renewals won on their most recent start.
overandclear.com 