Triumph: Solo 4/1
County: Aramon 16/1 EW Ante-Post
Albert Bartlett: Redford Road 33/1 EW
Gold Cup: Al Boum Photo 7/2
Foxhunters: Caid Du Berlais 14/1 EW
Grand Annual: Us And Them 25/1 EW
Martin Pipe: Front View 8/1 Ante-Post
1:30 – Triumph Hurdle
I’ve found this race incredibly difficult to weigh up.
I was initially in the camp of ALLMANKIND. Once considered to be close to Derby standard as a two-year-old, He’s three from three since switching to Dan Skelton. A grade 1 winner at Chepstow where he comfortably beat CERBERUS, he’s a headstrong front runner who’s grinded his rivals into submission. He’s impressed with the way he’s maintained a strong pace throughout his races and the time of his last two runs show that he may be a bit more controlled than on debut. His form has worked out very well, he’s an agile jumper and assistant trainer Tom Messenger said that “he’s the most exciting horse we’ve had”. The concern would be his ability to dictate affairs in a field where some of his rivals like to go forward. It will be a remarkable performance to make all in this field and I’m happy to side elsewhere at the prices.
GOSHEN is another to have looked “Freakish” since transitioning to hurdles after winning three successive handicaps on the flat. He’s one that has gone well from the front but he did react positively when taken on for the lead last time. He does jump right which would be a significant concern in this field. Gary Moore has stated that he’s “potentially the best horse I’ve had” and the way he’s decimated fields indicates that he’s a horse of serious ability.
ASPIRE TOWER leads the Irish charge. The Spring Juvenile hurdle he fell in has provided five of the last ten winners of the Triumph; A WAVE OF THE SEA won, staying on best of all after Aspire Tower fell and Cerberus appeared to pull himself up. I’m not sure that’s the strongest form.
SOLO was a very impressive winner of Adonis. His performance earned a mark of 157 which many have criticised as being too high, but it was hard not to like the style in which he won. He travelled and jumped like a dream and while his competition was not of the highest quality, it was the most complete performance by a Juvenile this term. With the race likely to be run at a frantic pace, his uncomplicated style will allow him to sit in and pick up the pieces should the pace be too strong. Paul Nicholls did the Adonis/Triumph double with Zarkandar back in 2011. He’s also represented by SIR PSYCHO who is another likely to be staying on at the finish.
2:10 – County Handicap Hurdle
Sixteen of the last nineteen winners were novices or second season hurdlers while the Irish have a great recent record in the race.
Willie Mullins has performed very well in this race recently; in the last 10 years, he’s won it 4 times and had a further 7 finish in the first 4 from 27 runners. This year, he’s represented by ARAMON, who gets in here off just 149; only 1 pound higher than his Irish mark.
He makes his handicap debut after 8 consecutive runs in Grade 1 company; it’s not as if he couldn’t compete either, as he managed to win and finish 2nd twice at the highest level.
Sent off just 8/1 for last year’s Supreme, he ran a far better race than a finishing position of 6th suggests. He made smooth headway to chase the leaders at 2 out (trading at a low of 3.0 in running) but he faded after the last on ground far slower than ideal for him.
After a below par seasonal reappearance in the Matheson (It’s been well documented that Willie’s have generally needed their first run), he ran a much better race in the Irish Champion Hurdle; I’d encourage everyone to re-watch that race as it was an eye-catching performance. Held up, he still hadn’t been asked for an effort at the 2nd last despite being 8th. Nursed along to close, he stayed on nicely to finish a fine 5th, only beaten 8.5 lengths.
Aramon’s path isn’t too dissimilar to Arctic Fire’s – the 2017 winner. He arrived here after running in 10 consecutive graded races, proving that class horses can win this race.
He also fits a few other trends for this race; 16 of the last 19 winners were either novices or second season hurdlers while 12 of the last 16 winners (including the last 4) began their career on the flat – Aramon ticks both of those boxes.
2:50 – Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle
This has traditionally been a nightmare for punters; Seven of the last ten winners have returned at a double figure SP; including a 50/1 shot and three at 33/1.
It helps to focus on those with plenty of experience and solid graded form. The last fifteen winners all won or placed in a graded hurdle while fourteen of the last fifteen winners ran in a graded hurdle last time out. Only Minella Indo had less than three runs over hurdles.
REDFORD ROAD makes plenty of appeal as an each way option. He beat Champagne Well in the Bristol Novices’ Hurdle here back in December. He beat Champagne Well that day who was beaten by Thyme Hill the time before and was in the process of running a good race in the Coral Cup before blundering at the 2nd last. Winners of the Bristol have a great record in the Albert Bartlett – Twelve have attempted the double since 2000, resulting in four wins and three places; Unowhatimeanharry (2016) & Kilbricken Storm (2018) were the latest success stories.
I’m prepared to put a line through his last run. The drop back in trip wouldn’t have suited and he was having his 5th start in 100 days so he may well have been over the top. Freshened up since, he won’t lack for fitness being trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies and he looks overpriced.
3:30 – Gold Cup
The showpiece of the week and we have a very open renewal this year.
Starting with the defending champion: AL BOUM PHOTO. There hasn’t been a back-to-back winner of the Gold Cup since Best Mate completed the treble in 2004. Many will point to that as a negative for his chances but I don’t believe there’s much credence to that belief. Only 8 reigning champions have taken their chance since Best Mate; their record is: 22FP35P4 – not great, but only one of the five to complete finished outside the first four.
It’s also encouraging that Willie has mirrored last year’s light preparation; Henrietta Knight prolonged Best Mate’s longevity by giving him a light campaign so that can only be viewed as a positive for Al Boum Photo. He’s only an 8-year-old with just 15 starts under rules so he has plenty of miles left in the tank. Having looked as good as ever at Tramore last time out, I think he has an outstanding chance of doing the double. After all, it took Willie Mullins all this time to win a Gold Cup and when you consider the class of horse he’s had over the years, this lad must have something special about him!
SANTINI is the definition of a ‘Marmite’ horse; you either love him or you hate him. I’m not a fan but I can completely understand why many will fancy him: His run in the RSA last season was superb considering his interrupted preparation (he suffered a foot injury a couple weeks before the race and had a reoccurrence of the issue just a week before the festival) – that form looks very solid now and second season chasers do well in this race. With just five chase starts to his name, you’d expect there to be improvement to come.
He’s been labelled as a plodder which is a tad harsh but he’s certainly not the quickest and I worry about his tactical speed in a race of this nature. He has fallen short in his two attempts at a Grade 1 over fences (no horse in the past 20 years has on the Gold Cup without winning a Grade 1 over fences first) and I believe he has to improve significantly to win this. I’m not sure whether the first-time cheekpieces are necessary and only 1 winner in the last 17 years has worn headgear. Al Boum Photo should be the clear favourite over him.
LOSTINTRANSLATION was as short as 9/2 for this earlier in the season after beating Bristol De Mai on his beloved Haydock. He bitterly disappointed in the King George but he was seemingly never right that day and he’s had a wind operation since then. It’s worth noting that connections could not find a specific reason for his disappointing performance at Kempton so the wind operation is not certain to help. His novice form with Defi Du Seuil reads well and if he can return to the form of his Betfair Chase victory, he’d have a chance. Still, you have to forgive his dismal run last time out and he’s short enough in the betting.
After disappointing on his reappearance behind Road to Respect, DELTA WORK won two consecutive Grade 1’s, thrusting him firmly into the Gold Cup picture. Winner of the Pertemps as a 5-year-old and 3rd in last year’s RSA, he boasts solid Festival form and he looks to have improved this season. It’s also worth noting that he missed his intended preparation at the Dublin Racing Festival last season so his RSA effort can be upgraded. His jumping had been questionable but he’s been slicker on his last two starts. Mark Walsh will deputise for the injured Jack Kennedy; expect him to deliver Delta Work late. He has a lot in his favour.
Beaten horses in last year’s Gold Cup have a poor record; Native River is the only horse this century to win a Gold Cup having been beaten in the race previously. This brings CLAN DES OBEAUX’S claims into question; I’ve been back and forth with him but I’ve finally decided to oppose him. I like the fact that he’s had a lighter campaign this season (ran at Ascot after the King George last season) but I just don’t think he’s a Gold Cup horse. I’m not convinced by the argument that they made too much use of him last year as he was only narrowly ahead of Al Boum Photo when they started their final circuit. He reminds me of Silviniaco Conti – very good horse, but not a Gold Cup horse.
The interesting one for me is KEMBOY. A faller at the first last year, he was the shortest price of the Mullins quarter that day. He made amends for that hiccup by winning the Aintree Bowl & the Punchestown Gold Cup in good style, beating Clan Des Obeaux and Al Boum Photo respectively. Not at his best this term, he was only 3.5 lengths behind Delta Work on his seasonal reappearance (Willie’s were all needed their first run) before a sloppy round of jumping cost him in the Irish Gold Cup; he made an error at every flight in the back straight but was only beaten by 1.5 lengths in the end.
Kemboy has been seen to best effect when allowed to go from the front as it seems to help him get into a rhythm. With Native River now missing the race, none of the four horses (Might Bite, Invitation Only, Definitely Red & Native River) will line up this year. With a lack of alternative pace angles, this could allow Kemboy to dictate matters at the head of affairs. He has plenty of class and a very high cruising speed; if he can get to the lead without much competition, he can go very close.
4:10 – Foxhunters (Hunters’ Chase)
Reigning champion HAZEL HILL bids to retain his crown as he looks to become the fourth back-to-back winner of the race since 2012, following in the footsteps of Salsify, On The Fringe and Pacha du Polder. The 12-year old arrives here after being beaten by Minella Rocco at Wetherby after jumping poorly. He reportedly had a slight muscle strain after the race which probably explains his below par performance. Still, it’s far from ideal preparation and age is not on his side; only 2 winners in the past 43 years were aged 12 or older and it only 1 winner since 1990 was over the age of 11. At the prices, I’m happy to oppose him.
MINELLA ROCCO has enjoyed a career renaissance since switching to hunter chases. He’s two from two in this sphere and his defeat on Hazel Hill reads very well if you take the form literally (there are reasons to question it). A National Hunt Chase winner and a Gold Cup runner up in his hay day, he was unquestionably classy but I couldn’t have him here for love nor money. Backing familiar names has not proven to be a profitable strategy in this race; Ucello Conti could only manage 5th last year despite going off at 4/1.
Despite preview evening chat, Derek O’Connor rides Minella Rocco instead of STAKER WALLACE. Very lightly raced for a 9-year-old with just six starts in total, Derek described him as “exceptionally talented” and he’s won a point to point since his last run under rules (his first start for three years) His lack of experience would be a serious concern in a race of this nature; Stand Up And Fight was well beaten last year despite being widely touted, adding to the list of lightly raced types to be beaten. He reportedly needs soft ground to be at his best and I think there are better options, although I expect him to be well backed. He could be one for next year, if he can keep sound.
Before winning a point in February, Staker Wallace was beaten comfortably by BILLAWAY at Naas the time before (although the former was having his first run for three years). Billaway is on an upward curve and he’ll have the services of Patrick Mullins. That race was run in a slow time and it was interesting to see that his stable mate, the late Casey Jem, was the only horse being backed just before the off.
This is the event that David Maxwell spends fortunes for so SHANTOU FLYER is entitled to plenty of respect, especially after he finished 2nd in this race last season.
However, preference is for CAID DU BERLAIS for Rose Loxton. 5th in 2018 after a troubled passage (out the rear for much of the race before having to use a lot of energy to challenge the leaders, only to be picked off after the last), he had a troubled preparation last year. He only qualified for the race 12 days before, winning a point-to-point in very deep ground. That run clearly left a mark on him as he showed none of his usual zest and he was eventually pulled up. Rejuvenated after a 42-day break, he routed a decent field in the Punchestown Champion Hunters Chase, winning by 21 lengths.
Qualification has gone much smoother this time around; he won a point-to-point in January beating a useful rival. With top rider Will Biddick in the saddle, Caid Du Berlais can make it 3rd time lucky.
4:50 – Grand Annual Handicap Chase
With my ante-post fancies for this race have not turned up and I do not have a strong opinion on this race.
As such, I’m willing to take a chance on US AND THEM. 2nd in last year’s Arkle and for all that it wasn’t a vintage renewal, it did show that he acts at Cheltenham; thirteen of the last fifteen winners previously ran at the festival. After an encouraging seasonal reappearance, his form has dipped but he was running in heavy ground over a trip which probably stretches him. He was running a better race last time out before a mistake two out and it’s encouraging that Joseph O’Brien has freshened him up since; it’s likely that this was the plan.
A strongly run two miles looks ideal and he can go close at a big price.
5:30 – Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
Lightly raced types have thrived in this race as of late, with ten of the last eleven winners having less than 9 starts over hurdles to their name.
In particular, Irish novice hurdlers have won four of the last six renewals and they all arrived here having run in a graded race,
FRONT VIEW has been well touted since finishing 2nd in a grade 3 at Thurles on his most recent start following a 3 month break. Weak in the market before the off, he travelled powerfully in rear before making smooth headway to join the leaders approaching two out. He still hadn’t been asked for an effort when getting checked approaching the last, forcing him to switch wide. A poor jump at the last ended any chance of winning but he stayed on nicely to grab 2nd on the line. Blow by Blow (1st) and Champagne Classic (3rd) ran in the same race before winning the Martin Pipe in 2018 & 2017 respectively.
His form prior to that run is solid; he was 2nd to Envoi Allen on his hurdles debut, with the useful Entoucas back in 3rd. He then won a maiden when beating the talented Uthred (who won a listed bumper on his next start) with subsequent winner Jon Snow back in 3rd.
He represents last year’s winning connections and I think he’s got the potential to progress far beyond a mark of 139.
overandclear.com 