2:45 – Almost Gold 4/1
The least exposed of the five runners, Almost Gold should be up to winning over fences off this mark having previously won off today’s mark over hurdles.
Sent off favourite or second favourite for all three of his chase starts to date, his most promising run came on his penultimate run at Huntington. In a race where only three ever got into contention, Tom O’Brien looked confident as they jumped three out (traded at 1.55 in running), despite being several lengths adrift of the eventual winner (Chase the Wind) and the third place finisher (Alexander the Grey)
Ultimately, the jockey gave his mount too much to do; he closed on the winner all the way to the line but never looked like reaching him. That race has worked out well: the winner placed on his next two starts, the 3rd & 4th both won on their next start while the 5th won three of his next five starts.
He couldn’t back that effort up when next seen at Exeter, but they was on soft ground which doesn’t suit the selection. His record on good/good to soft is: 93143352
His record on soft(or worse) is: 77409
Hence, the good ground today will be in his favour.
Ian Williams and Tom O’Brien team up with their only runner/ride on the card: the selections record under Tom O’Brien is: 741332
Under other jockeys: 9730459
The booking of Tom O’Brien, in my mind, underlines their intent.
It’s also worth noting that he’s run well on both of his seasonal reappearances; finishing 3rd over hurdles off today’s mark before finishing 2nd over fences.
He’s shown a tendency to jump slightly out to his left at times so the return to a left handed track should help him.
This lightly raced 7yo is out of a chase & point-to-point winner and is closer related to chase winner, Oscar O’scar. Given his pedigree and the form he’s shown to date, it would be disappointing were he not able to win over fences from this mark.
4/1 in a 5 runner race is more than a fair price.
overandclear.com 