The Horses to Follow list has its first runner of the season on Saturday, with RETURN TICKET set to lineup the 1:40 at Uttoxeter; a class 2 handicap hurdle over 2 miles.
He makes his debut for Rebecca Menzies who is in a rich vein of form at present. In the last week, she’s had 3 winners from just 5 runners. For comparison, throughout the entirely of June and July, she only had 3 winners from 51 runners.
While many may see the stables upturn in form as a positive for Return Ticket’s chances, my concern would be that it’s a result of her horses accumulating fitness through prior runs. Her runners have generally looked in need of their seasonal reappearance and her three recent winners all had at-least two recent runs under their belts.
Furthermore, the fact that Return Ticket reverts to hurdles indicates to me that this is likely to be a prep run for a future outing over fences. I’ve been monitoring his entires throughout the summer and he’s been entered up multiple times in novice and handicap chases, so I expect him to return to that sphere sooner rather than later.
He’s equipped with a tongue tie for the first time which looks a sensible move considering that he often fails to find as much as he promises to. However, I think he’ll travel well but fitness will find him out late on. If that’s the case, he’ll be extremely interesting next time out, presuming he returns to fences.
It’s worth noting that Raecius Felix (who made the same owner/trainer switch as Return Ticket) made his seasonal reappearance over hurdles where he was well beaten, but he’s just been declared over at Cartmel for a handicap chase. Return Ticket is likely to follow a similar path.
As such, I will not be backing him on this occasion.
There are only five runners but three of them arrive in good form; CUBSWIN made all to beat the re-opposing BEYOND THE CLOUDS at Stratford a month ago. They’ve been raised six and four pounds respectively for their efforts and I’d expect Beyond the Clouds to reverse the form here.
That run was his first for Charlie Longsdon and having looked a tad rusty in the early stages, he shaped with great promise to close on Cubswin with every stride on the way to the line. He’s less exposed than the Neil King runner and a mark of 139 is fair when you consider some of his previous form; he beat Simply The Betts and Claimantakinforgan in a novice hurdle back in November 2018, giving the future Cheltenham winner 8lbs while Claimantakinforgan finished 5th in the Supreme on his next run. Brian Hughes, who rode him on all of his runs over jumps for Kevin Ryan, takes over in the saddle and he looks to have a leading chance.
Bryony Frost and Neil King have been in great form of late and Cubswin is likely to give a good account of himself from the front as he so often does. However, he’s on a career high mark and he may face competition for the lead from FLASHING GLANCE, who made all to win at Kempton back in November.
He’s only 2lbs higher than when winning that day, but his last run was extremely poor when equipped with a first time tongue tie (retained). He also concedes race fitness to all bar one of his rivals so connections may not be keen to get into an early skirmish for the lead with a race-fit Cubswin.
PURPLE KING comes here following a narrow victory at Southwell 12 days ago. He’s only 3lbs higher for that win but that’s not surpassing considering that seven jumped the last virtually in a line, with only three lengths separating that group at the finish. First time cheekpieces are enlisted to try and eek out further improvement and although Dr Richard Newland is a master of racking up winning sequences, he faces a higher caliber of opposition here which may prove beyond him.
PREDICTION:
1. Beyond the Clouds
2. Cubswin
3. Return Ticket
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