7:30 Sedgefield – Raemoir 40/1 EW (4 places)
Given how weak this race is, I was determined to find something that could go well at a big price.
Raemoir is more lightly raced than most of these and I believe he’s capable of running a big race at a huge price.
He ran quite well on his debut in a Newcastle bumper, eventually finishing 8th but he did show up well for fairly long way and wasn’t beaten all that far at the finish behind some useful types.
It’s been a mixed bag thus far over hurdles, but he did run fairly well in two novice hurdles at Kelso; both contained some well above average types. He finished 9th behind Cheddleton and Jabbaar on his 3rd start over hurdles, where his jumping was quite novicey but it’s his next run that stands out to me.
Sent off a 200/1 shot, he tracked the leading pair (125 rated Black Pirate and 126 rated Ebony Jewel) for much of the race, and he was the only one capable of keeping up with them as they turned for home. He was well beaten into 3rd in the end, but he shaped far better than most and the horses in behind him only managed to close on him as he actually attempted to go with the leading duo.
His jumping was much better and that performance indicated that a weak race like this should be within his reach. Doyen Breed (4th, rated 108), Artic Mann (5th, rated 95) and Six One Nine (6th, rated 108) finished behind him that day.
He disappointed on handicap debut on his most recent start but that was a class 4 and he’s been dropped 4lbs for that run. It’s also worth noting that it was his 6th run in 96 days, most of which were on heavy ground so it might’ve been one race too many.
Mike Smith has only sent 9 to Sedgefield in the last 5 years but he sends just the one on the 7 hour round trip here and the booking of top conditional, Blair Campbell, has to be a positive; he’s ridden 3 winners from 14 rides at this track.
As a lightly raced 5 year old, he rates as one of the more interesting contenders given that he looked to progressing over hurdles before his most recent start. He’s primarily been racing on very soft ground but his action and his breeding suggest that he should act on this quicker ground.
Joie De Vivre is the most likely winner and I expect him to start at a relatively short price. Phil Kirby and Micky Hammond both run two but they’re out of form while many of the others are running for the first time for their new yards, but the stable changes do not appear to be a positive move.
overandclear.com 