5:15 – Neville’s Cross 5/1
Novice handicap hurdles can be a tricky puzzle to solve, but Neville’s Cross has some solid form in the book and I suspect that he has more scope for improvement than most of his rivals.
Sent off a well supported 4/6 favourite on his sole point-to-point start, he looked to hold a leading chance until he slipped on the bend approaching 3 out. The winner of that race won his next start and the 2nd won his next two.
He bumped into an Irish raider with prior experience on his debut in a Hexham bumper before running over hurdles for the first time at Chepstow in November. Weak in the market, he showed up well for a long way before fading into 4th in attritional conditions. That was a fair race; the front two are now rated 125 & 132 respectively, while it’s also worth noting that the 6th & 7th are both now rated 122.
The selection improved on his next run when finishing 5th at Wetherby. Although the 5th of 7 finish does not leap off the page, he held a leading chance at the 2nd last until a bad blunder halted his momentum; Stan Sheppard gave him a lenient ride thereafter, never picking up his whip. The form of that race is solid in the context of today’s race; the front 4 are now rated: 125, 118, 122 and 115 respectively.
He performed a tad below market expectations on his most recent outing (3rd) but again its worth pointing out that the race has worked out well. The winner was an odds on favourite rated 125 going into the race (and he was allowed to dictate matters from the front), while the runner up again finished 2nd in another novice hurdle and is now rated 115. The 4th placed horse also won on her next start.
In his starts under rules to date, he’s appeared to lack the pace for 2 miles and his breeding suggests this step up in trip will suit; by Stowaway out of a full sister to Bahrain Storm (useful stayer on the flat, won over 2m7f over fences), he’s a half brother to a 2m5f winner and he looks a staying chaser in the making.
It’s also worth noting that all his starts under rules to date have come on softer ground than he’ll experience today. However, his point to point was run on good, Bahrain Storm went best on a sound surface (and the selections dam was kept mostly to good ground) and he’s a nice mover who should appreciate a sounder surface.
Tom Lacey and Jonathan Burke have been in great form since the restart. Their record when teaming up (since 1st July) is: 111114531P443; 6 wins and 2 places from 13 starts.
From a mark of 109, Neville’s Cross should be competitive upped in trip and he looks the type to improve now handicapping.
overandclear.com 