21st September – Warwick Tip

3:15 – Outonpatrol (HTF) 12/1 EW (4 places with PP/Betfair)

One of my horses to follow for the season, Outonpatrol makes her handicap debut in a fairly competitive event but she is capable of making her presence felt.

A point to point winner, she has always been held in high regard but has taken some time to settle down; Alan King refereed to her as “a bit of a hot head” when she first arrived. Despite her attitude, she was sent off the 3/1 favourite for her rules debut in a bumper at Uttoxeter. However, she pulled Oakley Brown’s arms out for the majority of the race which eventually saw her fade into 7th, with stable mate Wynn House winning at 16/1.

She finished down the field on her hurdles debut, but Alan King reported that she “needed the outing quite badly”. With that in mind, she shaped fairly encouragingly behind some good rivals.

As such, it wasn’t a surprise to see her step forward on her next run, finishing 2nd to NTO winner Penny Mallow.

However, the standout run came LTO at Wincanton where she finished 4th in a race that is working out well. Kissesforkatie (1st) looked set to go very close in her next start until she fell at the 2nd last, while Lunar Baby (2nd) won a handicap off 116 on her next start and is now rated 122. Cill Anna won her next three starts (including a listed race) and is now rated 135, while Who’s The Boss (5th) went close in a couple of handicaps off 114. Even the 6th placed finisher, Prussia With Love, managed to boost the form despite being beaten by 15 lengths as she readily won a handicap off 102 in July.

On that evidence, an opening mark of 114 looks workable especially when you consider the scope she has for progression and I’m sure she’ll be more mature mare (both physically and mentally) for her absence.

We haven’t seen her since, but she was reportedly being aimed at a spring campaign before lockdown intervened so she should be ready for her reappearance on the back of a wind operation. This trip looks ideal and she seems quite versatile in terms of ground.

Alan King is 7/37 with mares making their handicap debuts (A/E 1.05), with a further 18 of those placing and it’s hoped that Outonpatrol can continue that fine record.

My one concern would be that she may need her first run as she did last season but I suspect she will be more forward this time around.