5:10 – Bogoss Du Perret 25/1 EW
A horse who’s had his fair share of issues since winning here over today’s distance (fences) but it was encouraging to see him run twice run within 48 days last season, even if the form figures are uninspiring.
However, it’s important to note that on both occasions he was running over an inadequate trip on ground that would’ve been far too testing for him; his only win to date under rules came over 3m2f on good ground and he’s a 3 time point-to-point winner on a sound surface. As such, 2m1f/2m3f on heavy was hardly going to see him to best effect and he did shape with some promise on his second start. In my mind, they were prepping him for a run in the spring/early summer before covid interrupted.
As such, the return to 3m2f on good ground at the track where he recorded is last win are all positives, as is the booking of Bryony Frost, who comes here for just one ride.
His win came off a mark of 89 and he’s now rated just 81 over hurdles. Some may see him running over the smaller obstacles as a negative but he’s rated 13lbs higher over fences so connections look to be trying to exploit this reduced mark.
Jimmy Frost wouldn’t boast the highest strike rate (~6% in total), but that figure improves markedly when looking solely at runners ridden by his daughter and over 3m+ trips; his strike rate improves to ~13% (46% place) with an A/E of 1.09.
A few of his opponents hold solid claims but these class 5 handicaps can often through up a surprise and it can pay to side with an outsider.
With just 9 runners lining up, he looks a fair EW proposition at a big price.
overandclear.com 