3:29 – Distingo 20/1 EW (0.75pts total stake advised)
Storm Alex has drenched the UK meaning that the ground at Fontwell is now soft; and it’s only going to get more testing as the day goes on.
That won’t suit a few in this lineup but it shouldn’t inconvenience Distingo, who ran well in two very competitive handicaps last term in testing conditions.
He began last season with a solid 6th in a listed handicap at Sandown which has worked out quite well; the horses that finished around him that day were; Mack the Man (1st, looked set to go very close in the Betfair Hurdle on his next start), Protektorat (2nd, subsequent listed ‘winner’ and Grade 2 placed) and Song for Someone (3rd, subsequent Grade 2 winner), while Theo’s Charm (7th) and Ashutor (8th) would both win on their 2nd run after this race.
As is his style, he snuck into the race approaching 2 out having been held up but just failed to pick up the leading group. He ran off 132 that day – he’s now off just 124.
He ran a similar race on his penultimate start when 5th behind Mill Green, but he did trade at 2.2 in running that day before a last flight error ended his chance.
I’m willing to forgive his last run as his form tailed off similarly two seasons ago, where after 2 promising runs he failed to give his running. As such, he might be best when relatively fresh.
The trip is a bit of an unknown but I’ve always thought he lacked a gear for 2m so perhaps this slight step up in trip could help him.
Gary Moore’s record at Fontwell is well documented; Gary and Joshua combine for a 17% SR in handicap hurdles here (40% place, 1.14 A/E) for a BFSP profit of +56.34
The selection does come with risks attached and he hasn’t won for over 2 years, but he is capable of running a big race off this reduced mark. As such, I’m willing to take a chance on him in hope he can run as he has done on his last two seasonal reappearances. If he does, he shouldn’t be far away.
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