2:15 – Oscarsman 12/1 EW
I expect the market to be dominated by Carys’ Commodity and Tango Echo Charlie but i’m taking a chance on the lightly-raced 6-year-old, Oscarsman, in what is just his 2nd run in a handicap.
While he was pulled up on handicap debut, he dropped out rapidly that day at a fairly early stage of the race. That and the fact that we haven’t seen him since indicates to me that he had an issue that day so I’m happy to put a line through that run. That was a much more competitive race that today’s event (a class 3 on Boxing Day) and he wasn’t unfancied that day.
Also, he comes here having had wind surgery and he’s equipped with a tongue-tie for the first time so he might’ve had an issue with his wind.
Prior to that, he made all to win a soft ground maiden hurdle at Plumpton over 2m4f, displaying a good attitude to fend off the odds on favourite, Bean in Trouble. That rival has since won a handicap and is now rated 129.
That was certainly a career best performance but he had displayed promise on his hurdles debut when finishing 4th behind I K Brunel and Eden Du Houx. He reportedly hated the very heavy ground at Lingfield on his next start so I’m happy to look past that effort.
The deluge of rain in recent days have left the ground at Stratford to be described as Soft-heavy in places. However, the going stick read as 6.7 on Saturday and which no rain forecast over the 12 hours, it could ride closer to soft than heavy; ground which I think is ideal for the selection (having been withdrawn on account of the going when it became to quick in the past)
Suzy Smith has only had 7 runners since racing resumed, resulting in just 2 places. However, they were the only 2 runners to go off at a single figure price (15/2 & 6/1) with the rest going off at 20/1 and bigger.
Furthermore, the trainer has only had 13 runners at the track, resulting in 2 wins and 4 places (level stakes profit of 6.5pts to a 1pt stake). Oscarsman is the yards sole runner on the card and makes the 6 hour round trip.
Michael Nolan has a good record for this trainer over hurdles; they have 9 wins from 37 runners for an impressive 24% strike rate (A/E 2.54) Backing them blind to a £1 stake would’ve yielded a profit of £61.87
He tends to race prominently (which suits Stratford as it’s a sharp track) and I hope he’ll go from the front as he did when winning his maiden.
If fit and if adopting those tactics, I think he’ll go close.
overandclear.com 