2:19 – Eau Top 9/2
Having run with credit on all three starts last term, he struck me as a horse who would improve next season. In fact, Ben Pauling has stated in the past that he thinks Eau Top is a “nice horse” and that “I’ve been in no rush with him”
Having drifted from 14/1 to 50/1 on hurdles debut, he shaped nicely to finish 4th in testing conditions at Hereford in December. I don’t think he really appreciated the deep ground that day; his sire, Barastraight, has only had a couple of jump winners in recent seasons but the most notable of them is Easy Game – a Grade 2 winning hurdler/chaser (Grade 1 placed) for Willie Mullins who is best on good ground.
It’s also worth noting that the stable were going through a very rough time when Eau Top made his reappearance. They’d only just begun to have runners again after a faulty batch of hay meant they had no runners from the 7th November till the 3rd December. In the two weeks after resuming, they only had 1 winner and 1 place from 21 runners (3rd Dec – 17th Dec, Eau Top ran on the 14th Dec)
Following that effort, he was extremely well backed for a novice hurdle at Ludlow (14/1 into 4/1). He travelled powerfully throughout and held every chance as they turned for home before fading on the approach to the last. Again, the ground might have been a factor in him tiring.
Either way, that race as worked out well. Allart (1st) won NTO before finishing 5th in the Supreme, Java Point (2nd) kept good company all season and looks a winner in waiting (and he’s one of my 20 HTF), Hunting Percival (3rd) won NTO and Prussia With Love (5th, 8 lengths behind Eau Top) bolted up in a handicap off 102 NTO.
His most recent outing came in a competitive handicap (handicap debut) at Newbury, again in testing conditions. Having been held up in rear throughout, he made nice headway as the field turned for home. He latched on to the leading group as they jumped 2 out, but again he tied on the nearly 3 furlong run to the line after the last in heavy ground, eventually finishing 6th.
That race has worked out very well: the 2nd and 4th won NTO, the 7th and 8th both placed on their next (and only run) since while the 9th and 10th have both won since.
Furthermore, he looked a far more settled horse on his most recent start. He had been very keen in previous starts and his jumping had been sloppy, but he put in a much more professional performance at Newbury which bodes well for this season.
Ben Pauling makes the 8 hour round trip to Sedgefield with 2 runners; Eau Top looks to have the better chance of the pair. Tom Bellamy rides both. The yard have been operating at a 20% strike race since the restart, with an A/E of 1.26 in handicap hurdles.
A mark of 107 looks workable and this is a weaker race than last time out. I think the better ground should suit and it would be disappointing if he can’t go close.
overandclear.com 