2:12 – Stimulating Song 11/1 EW
4:32 – The Bay Birch 5/1
Stimulating Song
This is one of those races where I was very keen to find an E/W angle, given that I don’t think it’s a strong race.
Friend or Foe is sure to be popular given his lightly raced profile and how successful Paul Nicholls was on Friday, but he’s well found in the market. It is worth noting that he was in training all of last season but didn’t run due to the ground so the long absence isn’t a concern.
Stimulating Song is a horse I’ve always thought a lot of. He clearly has ability, but he was very keen in his races throughout most of last year and wore a hood in 7 of his 8 starts.
Still, he kept good company all season once switched to hurdles. He made his debut over obstacles in an introductory hurdle that has worked out very well. He finished 4th that day, behind Marie’s Rock (1st, looks a top class mare), The Con Man (2nd, rated 138) and Ebony Jewel (3rd, rated 126)
He then finished 6th at Newbury in a good novice hurdle (Mister Coffey won) before comfortably beating the 124 rated Adicci at Wetherby.
The only time he didn’t run a solid race was in the EBF Final, where I think he was over the top having already run 7 times that season.
His reappearance at Ffos Las was encouraging. For all that he was brushed aside by Milkwood, he ran with credit against two good rivals and I think he’ll come on a lot for that run.
It’s also interesting to note that Sam Twiston-Davies, who rode him for the first time LTO, retains the ride.
If you look on the Racing Post app, the fact that Milton Harris is 0-17 in the last 2 weeks might put you off, but his jumpers this month have form figures of: 35235, although that last 5 was a 5th of 5.
Furthermore, Milton Harris has a 19% S/R in handicap hurdles at Chepstow (16 runners, 3 wins & 4 placed, A/E 2.36)
Only a 5yo, Stimulating Song looked more professional on his recent outing and it’s likely that he’ll have matured over the summer. I’m of the opinion that 2 miles on a relatively stiff, left handed track like Chepstow is ideal for him and the test that a handicap presents should bring about the best in him.
4:32 – The Bay Birch
It’s not too difficult to make a convincing case for this mare.
Having won this race last year from a mark of 145 (8lb higher than she is today), she struggled for consistency last term but she still ran some good races in tough fields, including an 8th place finish in the Grand Annual.
She made an extremely encouraging reappearance at Warwick 19 days ago; weak in the market (9/2 out to 9/1), she travelled powerfully throughout and coasted in the lead on the approach to 4 out. She was going best of all as they turned for home (traded at 1.26 in running) but she looked to tire late on, fading into 3rd. Perhaps her weakness in the market was a result of her not being fully wounded up for this and with the benefit of hindsight, that could’ve been a prep run for this race at Chepstow.
The handicapper has even dropped her 1lb for that effort, which surprises me. That day, she was running against some race fit and inform rivals while the front two have run well again since.
Matt Shepherd doesn’t have too many runners but he had a nice winner at Ffos Las on Thursday and he has a great record at Chepstow. In handicap chases, he has an 18% S/R (improved to 21% when only looking at runners ridden by Stan Shepard) for an A/E value of 1.41.
Despite her rising age, she looked in great form last time out and everything looks set for a big run.
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