12:00 – Kemble’s Cascade 8/1 EW (WITHOUT Your Darling and Perfect Myth)
8s with PP/Betfair and Bet365
This is an intriguing novice hurdle and I think it’s one to keep an eye on with a view to the future.
Your Darling is clearly held in high regard and took the scalp of Flinteur Sacre at Newbury while Perfect Myth is a mare in flying form having improved markedly over the summer.
However, the one that looks a big price to me (18s-22s in the conventional market) is Kemble’s Cascade, who’s himself is well thought of and has ran well enough in bumpers to suggest that he can win over hurdles.
Well supported on his debut back in April 2019 (6/1 into 7/2), he responded well to the urging of Gavin Sheehan and despite going very wide on the turn for home, he burst through to lead inside the final furlong before running green, eventually finishing 2nd. Still, it was an encouraging run and the winner (Stoner’s Choice) went on to run well in listed bumpers and has performed well over hurdles while the 3rd (Dundrum Wood) is rated highly by Olly Murphy.
He didn’t appreciate the heavy ground on his next start (but still ran well with credit behind some nice types), before running well in an AW bumper at Lingfield. Having been held up, he did well to make up ground on the leaders given the nature of the track, eventually finishing 3rd.
He’s bred to make a jumper; by Kalinisi out of a half sister to the useful 2mile hurdler/chaser (2006 Grand Annual runner up), Tiger Cry. He’s a half brother to 3 winners, including Wee Tiger (hurdle winner on good ground) and Pumped Up Kicks (4 time winner on good for Gordon Elliot and Dan Skelton, rated 132 in her peak)
There are plenty in here with potential, but Kemble’s Cascade seems a big price and given how the market is dominated by 2 horses, this looks like a good opportunity for a W/O bet.
The selection will like the ground and has reportedly schooled very well. He’s been well thought of for some time and having shown plenty in 3 bumpers, he looks the type to progress over hurdles.
overandclear.com 