2:39 – Shanty Alley 11/2
While Shanty Alley has yet to win over fences, he’s only had 5 starts over the larger obstacles and he looks a winner in waiting.
Having won a maiden hurdle back in January 2019, Ben Case was quick to say that “his future is over fences”. As such, it wasn’t a surprise to see him race only 2 more times over hurdles before making the switch to chasing last season.
He’s often ran with credit last term and it was notable to see strong market support for him on each of his last 4 starts. The price changes were: 7/1 into 7/2, 9/1 into 4/1, 6/1 into 9/2 and 5/1 into 3/1. As such, it’s clear that better has been expected.
In fact, he looked certain to get his first win over fences LTO. He coasted clear on the approach to 3 out (traded at 1.05 in running) before coming down at the 3rd last. He just appeared to lose his concentration; it was the first fence after they turned for home and he had a rival jumping alongside him for most of the way round, so the first time cheekpieces could be to help him keep his mind on the job. Also, Ben Case has an A/E of 1.13 when applying cheekpieces for the 1st time.
On the plus side, him falling at 3 out saved him a lofty rise from the handicapper; the handicapper can’t increase the ratings for anything that happens before the 2nd last. If he’d fallen 2 out, he certainly would’ve gone up a few pounds.
That also allows him to contest a 0-110 handicap for just the 2nd time, having looked like bolting up in the 0-110 he competed in LTO.
Ben Case has done well since the restart, with 4 winners and 8 places from just 21 starts. He has a 21% S/R in staying handicap chases at Uttoxeter while he’s also built a great relationship with Bryan Carver in recent months.
Bryan Carver has ridden 6 times for Ben Case, resulting in 3 wins and 2 places (and 1 fall). Backing them blind would’ve yielded a profit of £44.98 to a £1 stake at BFSP for an A/E of 2.86.
It’s also worth noting that Bryan Carver, who is excellent value for his 5lb claim, had ridden 2 winners and 4 places from just 6 rides in handicap chases at Uttoxeter.
As with any horse coming back from a break, fitness has to be taken on an element of trust but Ben Case is adept are readying one first time out and Shanty Alley has run well fresh in the past. As such, everything looks set for a big run.
Easy Bucks is likely to be a short price considering he’s officially 3lbs well in under a penalty. However, the race he won completely fell apart, with 3 of the top 5 in the market failing to complete (2 down at the first) and the other vastly underperforming. While he is lightly raced, he’s far from certain to repeat that effort in a deeper race for a stable that has been far from prolific in recent months.
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