1:42 Ayr – Sophie Olivia 10/1 E/W
4:17 Ascot – Off The Planet 9/1 E/W
Sophie Olivia
With conditions sure to be testing and with only 2 of the 9 runners having run this season, I’m siding the mare that is proven on testing ground and often goes well fresh.
Her record when returning from a break of longer than 100 days is: 312F; that fall came on her last start when she looked certain to finish in the first 2 (traded at 1.5 in running) before falling at the final fence. That was a very good effort considering she was batting with Bafana Blue, who came into the race looking for a 3-timer and he was 3lbs well in under a penalty.
That was over 3 miles and while stamina did not look to be an issue, she had exclusively raced over 2m/2m4f prior to that run; 2m4f on stamina sapping conditions should play to her strengths.
She races off the same mark as LTO, and while her only win came off 6lbs lower, she’s demonstrated enough ability to suggest that she can win off this mark. This will be just her 6th start over fences too, so she’s far from fully exposed.
Martin Todhunter has his string in good form, with 2 winners and 2 placed from 5 runners in the last week. Sean Quinlan rides the mare for the first time, deputising for the injured Danny Cook, but he does get a fair share of rides for the yard and has ridden Chocolat Noir (the trainers only other runner on the card) to a 3-timer over recent months.
There looks to be a fair bit of pace on here (Caltex, She’sasupermack and Well Above Par all like to go forward) which will suit the hold up tactics of Sophie Olivia, and it can pay to be patient when the going is testing at Ayr.
With just 9 runners, she’s a good EW option.
Off The Planet
There are plenty of well regarded types in here with good pedigrees, but Off The Planet has the benefit of race experience and his bumper debut was very promising.
5th in a slowly run bumper (finishing speed of 110%) at Worcester in October 2019, he was held up throughout and trapped on the inside which meant he didn’t get a route through until very late on. He didn’t pick up instantly, but he was strong at the finish and Richard Johnson reportedly struggled to pull him up after the line.
That race has worked out well; Lord Baddesley (2nd) looked a very useful prospect when winning a novice hurdle earlier this month, as did Midnight River (3rd). Off the others, Cadmar (4th, won NTO), Israel Champ (6th, dual listed bumper winner) and Papa Tango Charly (7th, expensive purchase and placed in decent novice hurdles) give the form a very solid look to it.
Phillip Hobbs ensured a fairly quiet month but he’s started to hit form in recent days, with 4 winners from his last 7 runners.
Furthermore, he has a 19% S/R in bumpers at Ascot (4 wins & 6 placed from 21 runners, A/E 1.41) and Johnson/Hobbs have a 20% S/R in bumpers when teaming up; that improves to 25% when just looking at October bumpers (A/E 1.13)
The absence isn’t ideal, but he was due to run in the spring on better ground but that opportunity never arose.
He’s a half brother to a bumper winner and his dam is a sister to a bumper winner so while he will appreciate further once he goes over hurdles, he has what it takes to win a bumper beforehand.
There are plenty with potential in here, but as one of just two runners with experience in the lineup, Off The Planet looks a fair EW proposition with just 9 runners. It’s also interesting to note that all of the last 6 winners of this race had run at least once under rules prior to lining up here.
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