1:55 Plumpton – Oscarsman 25/1
2:45 Hereford – Oscar Robertson 6/1 E/W
Oscarsman
Somewhat speculative given that he’s pulled up on his last two starts, but this is a wide open race and there are reasons to expect a better effort here.
Despite pulling up last time, he showed up very well for a long time before weakening out of it. Stepped up to 3m2f for the first time, he went from the front and still led the field as they jumped 3 out. It’s also worth noting that Prabeni, the other horse that was prominent throughout, pulled up too and the winner/runner up were both held up.
He weakened quickly which is a concern, but Debestyman, another one of Suzy Smith’s horses, ran a very similar race on his first run if the season before finishing a fantastic 2nd at Cheltenham on his next start.
As such, Oscarsman’s disappointing run LTO could have solely been down to fitness, especially considering he was running over a stamina sapping trip. He encouraged with the way he travelled for the majority of the contest and he drops down in grade here and is 2lbs lower than last time.
Suzy Smith has a great record at Plumpton. She operates at a 19% S/R here, and backing all of her runners blind would’ve yielded a profit of £161.81 to a £1 stake at BFSP (A/E 1.39); her strike rate improves to 25% when just looking at handicap hurdles at the track (A/E 1.62)
Micheal Nolan and Suzy Smith combine for a 50% S/R at Plumpton (5 wins from 10 runners, improves to 4 wins from 5 when solely looking at handicap hurdles), and the jockey comes here for just 1 ride.
Oscaraman is a course and distance winner and despite the risks attached, he looks overpriced at 25/1 considering that many of his rivals lack a recent run and/or have something to prove.
Oscar Robertson
Oscar Robertson shaped with a fair amount of promise on his chasing debut 3 weeks ago.
Sent to the front early on, his jumping was quick and accurate for the most part, so much so that he traded at 5/2 in running (from an SP of 12/1) before making an uncharacteristic mistake at the 12th which effectively ended his chance of winning. He appeared quite laboured after that, but he rallied well to finish 4th, albeit beaten comfortable by the winner, Guy. He was dropped 1lb for that run, too.
Bar that one mistake, his jumping was very good for a novice and the way he shaped suggested that he’d improve a lot for the run (as did the market, as he was very easy to back during the day). In fact, he improved significantly from his first run last season; 7th on debut at Chepstow, he left that well behind when winning by 6 lengths at Wetherby on his next start.
Minella For Me won in impressive style at Wetherby on Saturday, appearing as though he benefited from his first run. As such, it would be no surprise to see Oscar Robertson take a significant step forward here.
By Oscar out of an unraced sister to a couple of chase winners (3m2f winner Great Grimsby and the useful Ellerslie George, so was rated 145 at his peak), he’s bred to be a chaser and Tom George wasted no time in sending him over fences.
The soft ground will pose no problem to him as his win came in very testing conditions, and he’s likely to make this a good test from the front. The home bend is quite sharp so it can pay to be handy, especially as it’s a downhill run to the last.
Tom George has a 17% S/R at the track (A/E 1.13), while Jonathan Burke is enjoying a great run of late.
With just 9 runners in the field, 5 of whom haven’t run over fences, Oscar Robertson looks a solid E/W proposition.
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