4:00 – Miladygrace 8/1 E/W
Miladygrace shaped with a fair amount of promise on her seasonal reappearance at Kelso and there’s every reason to expect an even better performance today.
Weak in the market, she travelled nicely and jumped well, which was nice to see given it was her first start in a handicap and she was running against the boys. She traded at a quarter of her SP in running as she still looked to be going well enough at 3 out. She was soon ridden and couldn’t go with the leading group of 4, but she wasn’t given a hard time by Tommy Dowson and she left the impression that she’d come on nicely for the run, as indeed many of Phil Kirby’s runners have.
Dropped 3lbs for that run, this looks a much easier race; back against her own sex, most of whom are out of form.
It’s important to bare in mind that the yard tend to have a low-key start to the season. Their all time S/R in September & October is just 5.85%. This improves to 10.45% in November (looking just at NH races).
Furthermore, the yard are amongst the winners, with 4 winners and 3 placed from 17 runners in the last week (all codes).
Phil Kirby runs two in the race, but Tommy Dowson has chosen to ride our mare which must be seen as a positive.
The yard have a 17% S/R in handicap hurdles at Sedgefield (A/E 1.12, +£61.12 to a £1 stake at BFSP)
That record improves markedly when looking just at those ridden by Tommy Dowson; 38% S/R for an A/E of 2.3, albeit from just a sample size of 16.
The step up in trip promises to suit Miladygrace as she has plenty of stamina in her pedigree (half sister to a point winner, out of a point winner who’s a sister to a useful 2m4f hurdler) and she looks a solid E/W bet in a weak race.
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