20th November – Ascot Tip

2:05 – Count Meribel 6/1 E/W

A 9/1 shot for last seasons BetVictor Gold Cup, I thought connections might go back for that race but instead they seem to have lowered their sights which could well prove to be a smart move.

For the first time since beating Le Breul in a Novice Chase back in November 2018, Count Meribel runs in a race that isn’t graded.

Furthermore, he has a fantastic record when fresh; his form figures first time out since 2016 read: 2112. The most recent 2nd came when chasing home Lostintranslation, form that made him a leading fancy for the BetVictor Gold Cup.

Interestingly, his record in October and November in the last three years is: 1111126. Outside of those months, his form figures read: 265P47P. Evidently, he’s one that comes to hand early and so the absence is seen as a positive.

It’s also worth noting that he’s won around Ascot before and four of his five wins have come going right-handed. While he’d prefer the ground a tad quicker, it should be fine for him so conditions are very much in his favour.

Regular ride Mark Grant is onboard so don’t read anything into Sam Twiston-Davies riding Earlofthecotswolds.

Off 142, I expect Count Meribel to be competitive now he’s in calmer waters. He’s only had 7 starts over fences so he’s not fully exposed yet.

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