12:47 Bangor – Duhallow Lad 9/1 E/W
1:50 Newbury – Tea Clipper 10/3
Duhallow Lad
Rizzardo and Twotwothree are the standout contenders but they’ve been well found at the top of the market.
In an 8 runner race, I’m always keen to find an E/W angle and Duhallow Lad looks a viable option.
He’s won twice over fences from just 7 starts off 105 and 107; he races off 108 here. It is a slight concern that both of his wins have come at Plumpton, but Bangor is a tight left handed track also which bodes well.
He most recent win reads well; Le Coeur Net (2nd) had won twice in five subsequent starts while Finnegan’s Garden (3rd) has won three times in six subsequent starts.
He’s run well in far better races than this; he last start over fences came in a 0-135 at Aintree where he was only beaten 8 lengths. This race is far weaker.
You can put a line through his last run, which came over hurdles, as it was clearly a prep run for a return to fences. He won on his second start last season and was well backed to do so; market support would be significant.
Alan Jones doesn’t have too many horses, but they do generally improve for the run. In the last 5 seasons, his S/R with runners first time out is 9%. This improves to 16% second time out.
Duhallow Lad makes the 9 hour round trip to Bangor and James Best, who rode him at Aintree, takes the ride; he has a 20% S/R when riding for the trainer (A/E 1.7)
My hope is that they’ll ride him positively as that’s the style of running that’s yielded him his two wins to date. If so, he should be bang there at the finish.
Tea Clipper
An impressive winner of the Silver Trophy, Tea Clipper strikes me as a massively progressive horse who could still be significantly ahead of his mark. A 7lb rise for that win seems very lenient given he looked to have plenty in hand.
He was a short price favourite for a Cheltenham handicap a couple of weeks ago before being withdrawn on account of the going. Today’s good ground is right up his street; conditions in general look ideal.
Tom Lacey continues to be in great form and he has a solid 19% S/R at the track (A/E 1.18)
I’m normally inclined to take on favourites unless that look to have everything in their favour. This is one of the occasions when I’m struggling to see past the favourite.
overandclear.com 