1:12 – Numitor 11/2
We backed this one a couple of weeks ago when he ran a great race on his handicap hurdle debut to finish 3rd.
That race was run at a strong pace and Numitor was disputing the lead the whole way; the finishing speed was only 98% and the other horse up there with the pace, Adjourned, pulled up. The winner, 2nd and the 4th were all held up so Numitor did very well to finish where he did. He’s been raised 1lb for that run but you can mark that effort up.
It’s no surprise to see Numitor switch to fences so soon given his size; he’s about 18 hands and this imposing grey looks the type to take well to fences.
Heather Main doesn’t have too many runners, especially over jumps, but 67% of her runners in the last two weeks have run to form which is a positive. She hasn’t had a runner at Ffos Las since 2013, although she boasts a fair record of 1 win and 1 place from 6 runners at the Welsh track. She makes the near 6 hour round trip today with just 1 runner on the card.
Tom Scudamore, who is building a nice rapport with the selection having ridden him three times (includIng LTO), has an 18% S/R in handicap chases at Ffos Las.
2 miles is definitely on the sharp side for Numitor, but my hope is that Tom Scudamore bounces out in front and makes this a real test for the others; and we saw with Cloth Cap that Tom Scudamore can give a horse a great ride from the front!
I’m sure that Numitor will prove to be a better than his mark of 113 over fences. Whether today will be the day he proves it remains to be seen, but he’s worth siding with at the prices.
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