2:55 – The Cob 13/2 E/W (7s available with Bet365)
A good race, but I was surprised to see The Cob open at such a big price.
He makes his handicap debut here off 124 having finished 2nd, 3rd and 1st in three starts over hurdles. There are reasons to think that his opening mark may be a touch lenient.
He made a very encouraging debut over hurdles when finishing 3 lengths behind the now 135 rated chaser Ubetya. The winner had the benefit of two previous runs that season (1 over hurdles). Despite being keen and some sketchy jumps, The Cob plugged on well despite being headed three out where he looked like being beaten much further than he eventually was; the front two pulled 11 lengths clear. The 3rd to 7th are now rated: 120, 119, 95, 126 and 114 respectively.
His jumping was sloppy on his next start at Warwick where he finished 3rd, but that was a fair race. The winner, Hooligan, won an introductory hurdle on his next and only subsequent start (rated 135) while the runner up, Nicholson, is rated 134 and is held in high regard. Also, the horses that finished 4th and 6th that day are now rated 127.
The Cob won a weaker race at Uttoxeter over 2m4f last time out, but his jumping was much better and the way he finished the race despite pulling hard was visually impressive and he looks to be improving.
It’s also worth noting that the yard only had 2 winners in October when The Cob last ran.
Ben Pauling has only ever sent 16 horses to Haydock (2 wins, 3 placed) but he makes the near 6 hour round trip with just the 1 runner on the card; backing the trainer when he only has one runner on the card (hurdles) would have yielded a profit of £120.16 to a £1 stake. The inform David Bass (9 wins and 2 placed from 21 rides since Nov 21st) takes the ride.
His race fitness and his proven ability to handle testing ground will be key here, with 4 of his rivals lacking a recent run. There looks to be plenty of pace on here, with Oscars Leader, Ebony Jewel and Minella Charmer all being confirmed front runners which should help The Cob to settle.
Goobinator looks an awkward type and was given an incredible ride to win last time out while Hijack needs to bounce back for all that he is lightly raced. Oscars Leader was allowed to dictate a slow pace when 2nd behind Mister Coffey LTO while Ebony Jewel lacks a recent run.
As such, I’m siding with The Cob who looks overpriced at present.
overandclear.com 