12:45 – Dhowin 22/1 E/W
Formerly owned by Trevor Hemmings and trained by Jonjo O’Neill, he was sold for £40,000 back in September and subsequently went to Warren Greatrex.
His debut for the yard was full of promise. Restrained in rear early, he made nice headway going 5-wide around the bend to pursue the leading group. He wasn’t given a hard time and with two tired leaps in the straight, he tired into 6th but there are a few reasons to mark up that performance.
The yard were badly out of sorts when he ran last time out. In November, Warren had no winners (3 placed) from 37 runners. December has been significantly more productive thus far; 4 wins from 18 runners. That improves to 4 wins from 9 when looking at runners with an SP shorter than 20/1.
Dhowin had only recently joined the yard when he last run so they’ll know him better now while he did shape like a horse in need of his first run. It’s also important to note that his most recent start came on relatively quick ground but all of his form has come on a slower surface.
The step up in trip on more testing ground looks sure to suit while it was surprising to see him dropped 3lb for his most recent run when you consider that it was his handicap debut.
On the form of his win at Hereford where he cosily beat Exodela (2nd, rated 125) and Olly The Brave (3rd, rated 124 but was giving Dhowin 6lbs), a mark of 120 looks workable especially when you consider that this will only be his 5th start over hurdles. That win also came on his second start of the season having previously been beaten by 31 lengths.
While he looks a future chaser, a mark of 120 looks workable and conditions should be close to ideal. Connor Brace is a top conditional and I expect the selection to outrun his odds.
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