12:30 Newcastle – Skiddaw Tara 6/1
1:50 Ascot – Drumcliff 11/1 E/W
2:05 Haydock – Mcgowan’s Pass 15/2 E/W
Skiddaw Tara
Well beaten on his seasonal reappearance/chase debut, his run wasn’t as bad as the margin of defeat suggests. He was running against rivals rated 6lbs to 15lbs higher than him while 3 of the 4 that finished ahead of him had a run under their belt. He was given a fairly educational ride; he was made to make his own mind up at the majority of his obstacles and was amongst horses throughout the race. As the leading group quickened, Skiddaw Tara was not asked for an effort and was allowed to come home in his own time.
It was a run that left the impression that there was plenty more to come. It’s also worth noting that he came on significantly for his first run last season so a much better effort can be expected today.
Nicky Richards has had 3 winners in the last week, albeit at short odds, and he has a solid 21% S/R at Newcastle (A/E 1.07). Ryan Day has ridden the selection on all bar one of his starts under rules to date so him getting back in the saddle has to be seen as a positive.
Described as a proper old fashioned chasing type, 3 miles on soft ground will pose no issues to him while the more galloping track today looks sure to suit.
It’s also interesting to see the application of cheekpieces for the first time. Nicky Richards has an extraordinary recent record with runners wearing cheekpieces for the first time; since 2018, the form figures read: 81331F1113213; 6 wins & 2 placed from 13 runners.
On handicap chase debut, his mark of 117 looks workable and this is significantly weaker than the race he made his chase debut in.
Drumcliff
An interesting race but I get the impression that you might not have to be that well handicapped to win this.
Drumcliff has been around for a while now and he hasn’t won since May 2018, but there are plenty of reasons to think that today might be the day.
He’s coming here off the back of a great run behind Espoir De Guye, who is one of the favourites for the 3:00 Ascot on the same card. His only other start at the track resulted in an emphatic 12 length win over today’s trip back in 2018 so he clearly likes it here. The cheekpieces that were equipped for the first time LTO are retained today.
Harry Fry is in terrific form of late, recording 6 wins in the last two weeks from 19 runners. He does very well at Ascot too, operating at a 24% S/R (A/E 1.27)
The most interesting factor is the booking of Aine O’Connor. The useful conditional comes to England for 1 ride and she has a 24% when riding for Harry Fry (38% for JP owned Fry horses) while her last 9 rides for the trainer have finished in the first four.
Even more significant is the fact that she’s ridden Drumcliff to his last two wins so booking her must be seen as a significant positive. Those wins came off marks of 129 and 139; he races off 130 today. While he may not quite be the horse he once was, his last run augured well and his first win in over 2 years could be around the corner.
McGowan’s Pass
With 8 runners and the favourite hailing from a yard that is desperately out of form, this race is crying out for an each-way bet.
Mcgowan’s Pass stands out to me at the prices given he is sure to appreciate the testing conditions. His three wins have come on heavy ground, while his overall record on heavy ground (outside of graded company) reads: 21134122. Sandy Thomson’s runners tend to thrive in testing conditions, operating at an 18% S/R (43% place) on heavy compared to an 11% S/R (30% place) on good/good to soft.
While the bulk of his form is over 2miles, he looks as though he’ll appreciate further these days, with his trainer noting that fact in a stable tour back in October.
His 2nd’s behind The Con Man (subsequent winner) and Main Fact (won 5 on the bounce since) towards the back end of last term read well, while he was only narrowly denied by a race fit rival on his seasonal reappearance with the pair 20 lengths clear of the remainder.
Sandy Thomson makes the near 400 mile round trip to Haydock for just 1 runner and the yard have been in good form, with 3 winners from 12 runners in the last couple of weeks.
overandclear.com 