1:50 – I K Brunel 25/1 E/W
3:00 – Colorado Doc 25/1 E/W
I K Brunel
With Olly Murphy having his best run of form all season, I’m surprised to see I K Brunel at such a big price.
Well thought of, connections cut his chasing campaign short after two fair efforts to preserve his novice status.
Sent back over hurdles last time out, he shaped quite well over three miles under a patient ride. He travelled into it well, closing on the leaders in the approach to 3 out but he didn’t appear to stay the trip. The softer ground over an intermediate trip looks like suiting much better. Although recent trainer comments indicate he wants better ground, I’d argue his best form has come on soft and it was initially thought that softer ground would see him to best effect.
Through October and November, the months when I K Brunel ran on all starts this season, Olly Murphy was operating at a 7% S/R (A/E 0.44).
In the last two weeks, he’s been operating at a 19% S/R for an A/E of 1.43; the corner has well and truly been turned.
Furthermore, Olly Murphy’s 11 runners at Ascot have returned two winners and four seconds.
A patient ride could pay dividends here, with Paddy’s Motorbike, Nordano & Lightly Squeeze being amongst those who like to go forward.
With all things considered, I K Brunel has good each way claims at a big price.
Colorado Doc
An open looking race, there are a lot of familiar names here, many of whom have been running in similar events for a while.
To my mind, very few of these could be considered well handicapped – Good Boy Bobby has always been well though of and a mark of 144 should be within his remit, while Domaine De L’Isle is back on his last winning mark – that win came in this race last season. I expect him to be a popular selection with first time blinkers added, although he has been in awful form this season.
With that in mind, I’m taking a chance on Colorado Doc. He’s 10yo now but he’s only had 5 starts under rules. A prolific pointer, he finished 2nd on two starts over hurdles and his chase debut over an inadequate trip before bolting up in a handicap off 126 over 2m3f.
A keen going sort, he stepped up in trip to 3m2f on his seasonal reappearance. Fresh throughout, he ran well for a long time before tiring on the turn for home, which is understandable given how he went through the race. Connor Brace also reported that he lost his action late on, and understandably looked after him, pulling him up having never asked him for an effort.
That would’ve blown the cobwebs away and dropping him back in trip seems a wise move. He’ll relish the testing ground and in such conditions, I like that he’ll have a light weight on his back. Still very unexposed under rules, David Brace has never had a runner at Ascot before and he’s not to bring horses to the premier tracks unless he thinks he has a chance.
With many bookies paying 4 or 5 places, I think he’s worth an E/W bet.
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