County Hurdle – Proschema 20/1 NRNB (365, Sky, BetVictor)
Dan Skelton and Willie Mullins have been trading blows in the County Hurdle in recent years, with the pair winning three each in the past six renewals.
Having looked through the latter’s entries, there isn’t a standout contender so perhaps the former may reign supreme this term.
Dan Skelton has three entered Third Time Lucki and Cadzand here; both are possible runners although the Third Time Lucki could run in the Supreme while Cadzand was disappointing in the Betfair Hurdle last time out.
With that in mind, his best chance may come from his runner who is currently the biggest price of the trio – Proschema.
A very useful performer on the flat for Tom Dascombe where he peaked at a mark of 104, it is worth noting that thirteen of the last seventeen winners of the County started their careers on the flat, which includes the last five.
His dependence on good ground has meant that he’s only run five times over hurdles since October 2019. He kept good company in his novice campaign last term, with his sole victory coming when beating the now 149 rated chaser, Cheddleton while the form of his hurdles debut also reads well.
He made a very encouraging seasonal reappearance at Wetherby which set him up for a tilt at the Greatwood, for which he was sent off a 5/1 chance. Everything went wrong that day, with conditions quickly becoming extremely testing while he also lost a shoe, so his poor performance can be easily excused. Interestingly, both Superb Story and Mohaayed ran in the Greatwood in the same season as their County success.
Keen to avoid deep winter ground, Proschema has been keeping active on the all-weather, winning a couple of “Jumpers Bumpers’”. The form of those wins are not worth assessing but at least they’ve shown him to be on good terms with himself.
From his current mark of 131, he has threatened to win a big handicap for sometime and his patient running style will suit the nature of the new course, while the ground has been on the quick side on four of the last five occasions the Friday was on the 16th or later.
There is just one big question that remains…. Will he get in?
The mean lowest mark in the last eleven renewals was 132.2, while a mark of 131 would’ve only been high enough to run in three of those runnings.
However, there are two important factors to consider.
Firstly, handicap entries are extremely low this season, while County Hurdle entries are at their second lowest point in the last eleven years (89 this year vs Avg of 105.3 across the previous ten renewals) which may mean those with a lower mark can sneak in.
Secondly, Proschema is currently entered in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso on the 6th March; a race which brings a £100,000 bonus for any horse that can win at Kelso and follow up at Cheltenham.
With that in mind, there are four scenarios that I can envisage:
- He doesn’t run at Kelso but sneaks into the County off a low weight
- He doesn’t run at Kelso and doesn’t make the cut for the County
- He runs at Kelso, wins which gives him a 5lb penalty – enough to qualify for the County
- He runs at Kelso, doesn’t run well enough so won’t go to Cheltenham
Situations like this are what NRNB is made for.
If 1 or 3 happen, Proschema is sure to go off shorter than 20/1, while it’s money back if 2 or 4 happen.
Given his overall profile, he looks a good bet at 20/1 NRNB, especially considering that the majority of those at the head of the market are far from certain to run here.
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