3:35 Newbury – Regarding Ruth 16/1 E/W
4:30 Doncaster – Doyen Dancer 11/2
Regarding Ruth
An open event, but the diminutive Regarding Ruth looks way overpriced at present.
A winner on her seasonal reappearance for the second consecutive season, she posted another respectable effort in a deeper race next time at Market Rasen; the winner of that has finished 3rd and 2nd on his next two starts while the runner up is now eleven pounds higher in the weights following a series of good efforts an emphatic win last time out.
Her last two runs are easily forgiven; the first came on unsuitability soft ground while the other was in a jumpers’ bumper which only served as a means of keeping her ticking over through the winter.
Lucy Wadham and Bryony Frost’s partnership has proved a fruitful one and its notable that Bryony rides for Lucy here instead of Neil King. When paring up in handicap hurdles, the pair have an impressive 24% strike rate (59% place rate) while the yard have been in good form of late.
Three miles on quick ground is exactly what this admirable mare wants and given these conditions, she looks sure to give a bold showing.
Of her rivals, I do think a few of these have something to prove. Dhowin fell at the first less than 2 weeks ago while Howling Milan wouldn’t be the most consistent or prolific although he is officially four pounds well in. Others are returning from breaks, switching from fences or have stamina to prove. With few doubts surrounding Regarding Ruth, she looks a big price.
Doyen Dancer
Doyen Dancer was very well backed for his debut for Fergal O’Brien but it was clear that all was not well from an early stage. Paddy Brennan reported that he was hanging left, which abundantly clear upon watching the race back while he could never get competitive in what was a fiercely run race over the minimum trip.
Off since, this winning pointer faces vastly different conditions today. Switched to fences, stepping up in trip and on a left handed track all looks likely to suit given what we know about him. Closely related to Real Steel, his dam is a half sister to a Grade 3 winning chaser while on appearance he looks the type to take to fences. It’s also worth noting that Fergal’s runners have been profitable to follow on their first run over fences when running in a handicap.
Speaking of the trainer who is a master of getting one ready after an absence which eliminates the concern a 96 day break brings, his recent record at Doncaster is phenomenal; since 2020, his 17 runners here have recorded six wins with a further six placing. If just looking at those ridden by Paddy Brennan, his record improves to 6 wins from 10 runners with a further one finishing second. Those winners came at: 6/1, 9/2, 5/2, 12/1, 9/2 and 5/1 so it’s not as if they were all extremely short prices.
A fair few of those are coming off a break too and the market leader, One More Fleurie, is running under a penalty but is not well in at the weights. Furthermore, the horse he beat last time is a 25 race maiden over jumps.
With that in mind, Doyen Breed appeals as the most fascinating contender and he’s a decent price to boot.
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