Gowel Road – 25/1
Given Proschema’s bitterly disappointing run at the weekend, our earlier stab at the County looks a forlorn hope. As it was NRNB, no harm has been done and I was determined to find an alternative at a big price… and I believe I’ve found one.
Gowel Road is considered to be one of the livelier outsiders for the Supreme, which I can understand given his progressive profile. While it’s a weak renewal of the festival opener, if he’s a 25/1 shot for that race then surely he should be shorter than 25/1 for the County considering his mark of 137!
And in a recent interview with Nigel Twiston-Davies, they seem to be leaning towards the handicap route with their progressive novice, noting that “the County Hurdle probably should be better” (Here’s the video – skip to 52:48 for the interview with NTD, 56:40 for the discussion on Gowel Road)
It wasn’t just the discussion over this target that was interesting. In fact, Nigel was quite glowing in his praise for the horse, stating that “he’s one of the nicest young horses we’ve had for a long time”; quite high praise indeed.
He made his debut at Ffos Las where he met one of the more hopeful Ballymore outsiders, Bear Ghylls who already had the benefit of two starts under rules, including one over hurdles. Gowel Road shaped with a tremendous amount of promise that day having been held up and forced to go wide round the long, sweeping bend to make headway. He traded at 1.2 in running as he mounted a serious challenge to Bear Ghylls, but he was very green inside the final two furlongs which enabled Nicky Martin’s runner to edge out a narrow winner, with the pair pulling nearly ten lengths clear of the remainder.
He was a tad disappointing next time out in what was a slowly run Introductory Hurdle at Newbury, which wouldn’t have aided Gowel Road’s cause given that he was held up. Again, he looked green once asked for his effort but he did stay on well at the end to finish a never-nearer fourth, while the fifth has since won his next three starts.
Given a generous mark of 122 for his handicap debut, he rewarded strong market support to win readily, despite momentarily looking in trouble. With a view to the County, it must be seen as positive that he has already experienced a handicap given that we know how frantic a Cheltenham handicap can be.
His last run came back in novice company, in a race which has been one by the likes of Al Ferof and Chantry House. In opposition was a Good Ball, who had beaten the selection previously, with Gowel Road arriving on four-pound better terms with that rival despite conceding a penalty to most of the field. Given a more positive ride, he and his old foe engaged in a great battle on the turn for home and despite looking a tad awkward, Gowel Road found extra impressively in the closing stages, pulling away to win by over five lengths, with a useful bumper horse a further four lengths behind. Given that he was conceding nine pounds to Good Ball, who is rated 131, there are reasons to believe that a mark of 137 underestimates Gowel Road, who still has plenty of scope for improvement.
With five-year-olds winning eleven of the last twenty-two renewals, novices also have an impressive record in the race; the selection ticks both boxes. It’s also worth noting that thirteen of the last fifteen winners were rated in the 130s.
Of course, there are some concerns. As previously mentioned, he has shown plenty of greenness at times but you can put an optimistic spin on that by highlighting the clear potential for improvement. He’s also bred to stay much further while this race has often gone to former flat performers.
But the new course at Cheltenham looks sure to suit given there are only two hurdles to jump in the final seven furlongs and how strongly he finishes his races.
25/1 looks a huge price to me.
overandclear.com 