3:42 Ayr – Grand Morning 16/1 E/W
4:02 Hereford – Hollywoodien 8/1
Grand Morning
A tad speculative (regular readers will know that I love a speculative punt in a handicap), but there are reasons to expect a revival today.
While chasing has not gone to plan, some of the selections hurdle form reads well. He beat the ill-fated Cubomania (giving him 3lbs) back in February 2018 in a novice hurdle; he went on to make a very useful chaser. After that run, he won a handicap at Newcastle on heavy ground off today’s mark of 120 as a 9/4 favourite.
Since then, it’s been a mixed bag. He failed to beat a rival home on his first three starts over fences, but he reverted to hurdles in January 2020 at Ayr off 125, where he finished second to Portrush Ted, who retired rated 144 (won off 131 that day). He was well beaten on his next start in a Grade 3 handicap, before going back over fences this term.
His first start this season was very encouraging and easily his best over the larger obstacles. He finished second to Mighty Thunder, who has since won the Edinburgh National and is now rated 139.
Two no shows since mean he’s now back over hurdles where conditions are ideal. His record at Ayr is: 112, while all of his wins have come on heavy ground. Back down to a mark of 120, which he has won off before while he has only had six starts over hurdles. He should run a big race if all is well and if the cheekpieces help.
Hollywoodien
The winner of this race last year, there has been encouragement on both of his starts this term.
He was third to Ibleo and Paddy’s Poem at Sandown after a 301 day absence; both of those have won since, as has the fifth.
He was then sent for wind surgery and he made a fairly quick reappearance at Wetherby, where regular rider Aidan Coleman, who gets a lovely tune out of him, was replaced by Adrian Heskin. He was stationed very wide throughout, as if he was looking for better ground before coming under pressure as the field turned for home. He was not knocked about at all once his chance was gone and it would not surprise me if they had today’s race in mind; he pulled up in a different Wetherby handicap before winning this race last year.
Back at Hereford in a weaker looking race, the overnight rain is a slight concern but he has won on ground officially described as soft before although he wouldn’t want a bog, with his record on good to soft or better reading: 211
Tom Symonds is having a great season while he has a 25% S/R in handicap chases at Hereford, while Aidan Coleman has a 31% S/R when riding for the stable. Since 2020, the duos form figures read: P3111231231
Gortroe Joe is unlikely to run which decreases the amount of pace in the race; Pingshou could go forward dropping back in trip, as could one of the Skelton trio.
But Hollywoodien looks overpriced at present and a big run is expected.
overandclear.com 