1:00 Southwell – Little Light 11/2
2:40 Kelso – Timetoroe 9/2
Little Light
Regarding Ruth backers will know that I have a soft spot for the Lucy Wadham/Bryony Frost partnership. In handicap chases, the duo have a 26% strike rate when pairing up for an A/E of 1.43. It’s also worth noting that Lucy Wadham is 6 from 17 in handicap chases at Southwell, while an additional three finished in the frame.
One of their wins came on Little Light in this race twelve months ago, where she won cosily in first time blinkers. That headgear has only been applied once this season, and that was on her seasonal reappearance where she ran with credit while shaping as if in need of the run.
Tried in a visor in a deep race on her penultimate start, that run is forgivable and while her previous run was well below par, it came on very deep ground while she ran in cheekpieces (that had been forgotten in the prelims, resulting in a fine for the trainer)
Back at Southwell, with blinkers back on and back on the same mark as twelve months ago, the better ground should work in her favour while her rivals aren’t the most inspiring bunch; Azzuri is ludicrously well handicapped on his best form but he’s far from certain to produce what we know he can.
Lucy Wadham said in a recent stable tour that Little Light has had a very stop-start season due to a foot problem, which may explain her recent below par runs. However, she also mentioned this race as her target so this has clearly been the plan for some time. With that in mind, a bold bid seems likely.
Timetoroe
Archie Watson has been in fine form of late (primarily on the flat), recording six wins in the past couple of weeks.
He sends Timetoroe, a lightly raced mare, on the ~700 mile round trip to Kelso for a rather weak looking race. He’s only ever had one runner here, which did not end in success but his raids at Scottish tracks have proved incredibly successful. At Scottish tracks, he has a 31% S/R and an A/E of 1.25; again, the majority of these runners are on the flat.
A point to point winner, Timetoroe has raced exclusively over the minimum trip on three starts under hurdles thus far but there is plenty of stamina in her pedigree. She’s a half sister to Timeforben, whose three wins came over 2m7f+ while her dam, who herself won a point, is a half sister to a couple of horses who won over 3m+.
She showed promise in bumpers before winning on her hurdles debut under a bold front running ride. With Misstree Song, now rated 107, four lengths behind in second, there are reasons to think that a mark of 109 may prove a shade lenient for Timetoroe especially allowing improvement from the step up in trip.
She hasn’t built on her debut over hurdles but it’s notable that her best performances have come after an absence so the 111-day break can be viewed as a positive.
overandclear.com 