2020/2021 Horses to Follow – Review

Last spring, I produced my first HTF list which comprised solely of horses that failed to win a race during the 19/20 season. Before I start my review, I would just like to say a massive thank you to everyone who shared their support for this little project of mine! There are plenty of HTF lists available these days, many of which are excellent, so I truly appreciate each and every one of you who so much as read my list!

Now, let’s get down to brass tacks…

Unsurprisingly, the twenty horses on the list endured very mixed fortunes. Three didn’t make the track, while eleven managed to win with six winning multiple times.

And those victories ranged from a class 5 handicap right to way up to a Grade 1!

If you backed every horse on every start (which was not advised!), you would have lost £14.32 to a £1 level stake (win only, at SP). At BFSP, you would’ve lost £0.63. In total, the seventeen horses that made the track ran a combined ninety-two times.

In terms of each horse, I’ve broken it down by the following:

  • Good
  • Okay
  • Bad
  • AWOL

These are arbitrary assessments and are not determined by profitability, although that certainly played a part in determining how successful their season was.

Good

Bravemansgame

  • Form: 211132
  • Return (£1 stake at SP): +£0.96

Promising without being outstanding in bumpers back in 2019, he was always going to improve for obstacles and so it proved. 2nd to subsequent Betfair Hurdle winner, Soaring Glory on his debut over hurdles, he improved significantly from that to win three times in a row, culminating in an emphatic success in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle. 3rd in the Ballymore at Cheltenham and 2nd in the Sefton at Aintree, he looks set to embark on a novice chase campaign next term. Given the general weakness of the staying novice hurdlers this season, he could well emulate Denman, who he has often been compared to, in winning the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase.

Cadzand

  • Form: 21101
  • Return (£1 stake at SP): +£2.41

Following an eye-catching debut over hurdles behind the subsequent listed, Grade 2 and Grade 1 runner-up, Do Your Job, Cadzand quickly went one better on his next start before winning impressively on his handicap debut off 129. Given that success and his lightly raced profile, he was sent off the 11/2f for the Betfair Hurdle but he could never get competitive under a patient ride. His season concluded with a victory in novice company under a double penalty, while connections may now send him over fences.

When discussing Cadzand, I gave a mention to another Skelton novice hurdler; Midnight River. He won three of his six starts this term and he was running a good race in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree (well backed) when falling three out. He remains one to keep onside.

 Cloth Cap

  • Form: 311P
  • Return (£1 stake at SP): +£10.33

I’m sure connections still see him as a Grand National horse”, I wrote of Cloth Cap… so close yet so far! He made a fair return to action at Cheltenham on his first start of the season on ground softer than ideal before bolting up in the Ladbrokes Trophy. That sudden improvement coincided with first-time cheekpieces, the adoption of front running tactics and a return to genuinely good ground for the first time since finishing third in the Scottish National back in 2019. He then beat higher rated rivals in the Premier Chase which resulted to in him shortening significantly for the Grand National’ the dream was alive! As the 11/2f for the big race, everything was going well before he weakened quickly on the run to four out, with Jonjo O’Neill reporting that he made a noise. He’ll be nine going on ten next season and given his new mark of 157, he’s likely to find life much tougher in the next twelve months.

Killer Clown

  • Form: U63123
  • Return (£1 stake at SP): -£0.50

While he only won once this season, I thought he was worthy of being mentioned in this section given his consistency towards the end of the season and his rise in the weights. Beginning the year off 124, I was unsure what route he’d take given he was still a novice over hurdles but his breeding and size suggested that he’d make a better chaser. Ultimately, connections decided on the latter. His unseat on his debut over fences was no fault of his own, and he shaped promisingly in a competitive handicap when next seen; a fair effort given his inexperience. He claimed his first win over fences on Boxing Day where he ran out an emphatic winner of a handicap at Sandown for which he was raised fifteen pounds. Following a break, he finished second in the Greatwood Gold Cup and third in a Sandown handicap off 141, where he didn’t get the clearest of passages. Flat tracks seem to suit and he’s well worth trying over three miles again next season.

Mint Condition

  • Form: 1141242
  • Return (£1 stake at SP): +£6.38

A mark of 115 looked lenient for this son of Black Sam Bellamy and he quickly proved that to be the case. His three wins came before the turn of the year, with those victories coming off marks of 115, 123 and 127 respectively. While he couldn’t add to his tally in 2021, he did finish 2nd in a Grade 2 novice hurdle and he was only narrowly beaten off 138 on his most recent start. Now rated 140, he could well be sent over fences as he’s certainly bred to make a chaser. Regardless, it’s been a superb season for Jennie Candlish’s seven-year-old who is now twenty-five pounds higher in the weights in comparison to the start of the season.

Misty Whisky

  • Form: 1123P
  • Return (£1 stake at SP): -£0.80

Another from the list that did their winning early, Misty Whisky won two handicaps on her first two starts of the season. While her jumping still lacked fluency, her innate ability that saw her win a listed bumper in 2019 was pulling her through although in deeper company, it continued to be a barrier. She did finish second in the Lanzarote and third in a Grade 2 novice hurdle and a mark of 124 is still workable but she will need to improve her jumping.

Return Ticket

  • Form: 5221314631P
  • Return (£1 stake at SP): -£3.97

Return Ticket was the inspiration for the list; I was a fan of him as a novice hurdler and I was convinced he would be capable of winning at over fences, for all that he kept flattering to deceive. It looked as though he might continue to do just that as he rattled the crossbar on his first two chase starts for his new trainer, Rebecca Menzies. However, he, like Cloth Cap, improved significantly once switched to front-running tactics and for the application of cheekpieces. His won two of his next three starts, with subsequent defeats coming in competitive novice chases or deep handicaps. He does have a tendency to make jumping mistakes towards the end of his races which will hold him back in the more competitive events. However, he will continue to pay his way and there are plenty of races to be won with him up north, especially when allowed to dictate from the front.

Okay

Java Point

  • Form: 52215
  • Return (£1 stake at SP): -£2.75

He caused me a headache when reappearing in the same handicap as Mint Condition back in October. Although he was well beaten in the end, he went well for a long way and certainly left the impression that there was more to come. It took until the end of March for him to finally get his win under rules and he recorded an RPR of 120 on each of his last four starts. While he hasn’t improved as I hoped, he is expected to go chasing next season and that is where we should see the best of him. Keep him in your trackers for novice handicaps.

Mega Yeats

  • Form: 233
  • Return (£1 stake at SP): -£3.00

It may seem odd to include a horse that didn’t win in this section but she is not a forlorn hope. Having switched to Mark Walford’s yard, she made a very encouraging debut for the stable in an AW bumper before finishing third in a couple of handicap hurdles. I hope that she will finally embark over fences next season; she won her point well, she’s out of a presenting mare who is related to chase winners and from a falling mark of 119, she could be interesting in novice handicaps. In fact, she’s on my shortlist for next season’s list.

Namib Dancer

  • Form: 1F
  • Return (£1 stake at SP): -£0.38

An easy winner on his seasonal reappearance, tragedy struck next time out as he suffered a fatal injury. RIP.

Outonpatrol

  • Form: 13278
  • Return (£1 stake at SP): +£6.00

It may seem harsh to only classify her as “okay” given her profitability, but I was a tad disappointed in her two most recent efforts. Her win on handicap debut was impressive and to her credit, she went close on her next two starts. Following a midseason break, connections stepped her up in trip to three miles which promised to suit but she didn’t quite perform as expected. There are plenty more races to win with her and perhaps she may go over fences given she’s out of a multiple point and chase winning mare and she herself won a point.

Unai

  • Form: 6P3331
  • Return (£1 stake at SP): -£2.00

After being comfortably beaten on his first two starts of the season, my hopes for him over the coming months couldn’t have been lower. However, his debut over fences in February breathed a new lease of life into his prospects. A couple of near misses followed before he finally claimed his first win under rules at Warwick in April. Given his preference for good ground, it’s entirely possible that Ben Pauling will keep him going over the summer. Only a six-year-old, he’s going the right way and he is capable of winning again when conditions are in his favour.

Bad

Bigmartre

  • Form: 495
  • Return (£1 stake at SP): -£3.00

After publishing my HTF list, it was brought to my attention that Bigmartre was put through the sales in May 2020, where he was presented defibrillating heart issues amongst other problems; he was unsold at £25k (thanks to Carl Hinchy for pointing this out). After that came to light, I thought connections may decide to retire him but they persisted, although his three runs saw him beaten a combined eighty-nine lengths. Now a ten-year-old, we may have seen the last of him on the racetrack. Regardless, he has been a fine servant for Harry Whittington and his owners down the years and I wish him all the best.

Count Meribel

  • Form: U7P56
  • Return (£1 stake at SP): -£5.00

Now they are some unappealing form figures. Quite simply, Count Meribel looked a shadow of him former self this season. Two poor displays of jumping to kick off the campaign saw a return to hurdles in December, but they did not help him rediscover his form. Now fifteen pounds lower than compared to the start of the season, a major revival is needed. Regular rider, Mark Grant, has recently stepped away from the saddle so I’d like to wish him a happy retirement.

Forever Des Long

  • Form: 85222
  • Return (£1 stake at SP): -£5.00

I can’t quite believe he didn’t manage to win this season as I would’ve had him in my top 5 from this list in terms of confidence. He reportedly had a issue with his heart after a disappointing seasonal reappearance which led to him having four months off the track. His return in an AW bumper was promising and he subsequently finished second on his next three starts. Still a maiden, it would seem a matter of time before he is found a winnable race.

Hold The Note

  • Form: 443524P
  • Return (£1 stake at SP): -£7.00

To call him frustrating would be an understatement. Headgear, trip and tactics have all been tinkered with to coax a win out of him but to no avail. The only plus side is that he’s still a novice over fences so he can be found a winnable race, but it would seem as though he’ll always find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Louis’ Vac Pouch

  • Form: 7F77794
  • Return (£1 stake at SP): -£7.00

Having shaped with plenty encouragement on his two starts for Phil Kirby last season, it has been a surprisingly poor season for the nine-year-old who has dropped nineteen pounds in the weights. With seemingly no excuses, he’s one to avoid for now although with his stable known to land a gamble, money for him should be noted.

AWOL

Beakstown

Finawn Bawn

Madiba Passion

That’s a wrap! If you’ve read this far then your commitment is to be commended!

I hope that in one way or another, you found the list and/or this review enjoyable and beneficial. Thank you for your support and keep an eye out for the 2021/22 Horses to Follow!

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