7:05 – Morraman 10/1 (11s with B365)
8:05 – Diva De Vassy 10/1
Morraman
With Donald McCain flying along at present after recording three wins from six runners when the jumps returned on Saturday, it seems only right to focus on his horses at Bangor; a track he has a terrific record at. In handicap hurdles across since 2017, he has a 21% S/R (A/E 1.44) and is profitable to back blindly.
Morraman shaped encouragingly on his reappearance at Cartmel a few weeks ago following a 246-day break, with Abbie McCain content to let him sit in last throughout while you could almost call him detached at times. As the tempo increased, his jockey was not in a rush to make a move and realistically, he didn’t have a chance of winning given where he was positioned and the patience he was ridden with. It was a lenient ride but he stayed on nicely at the finish.
It’s worth noting that he has often needed his first run after a break. On his starts under rules following an absence of 56 days or more, he has beaten just 28% of his rivals. On his second run following a break, he has form figures of 312, beating 87% of his rivals. As such, I would expect him to improve significantly for his last run.
His last win came back in April 2019 off a mark of 115; that was a comfortable success and he has run well from marks in the 120s previously which leaves me to believe that his current mark of 117 is well within his range.
Abbie McCain has built up a great rapport with the horse while both the ground and the trip should suit. All in all, a good effort should be expected.
Diva De Vassy
An open contest where a few have fair claims. Sir Tivo has improved significantly out of the blue while both Away at Dawn and Shiroccan Roll are lightly raced in this sphere with scope for progression.
However, I’m willing to take a chance on Diva De Vassy who has slipped ten pounds in the weights in just four starts despite being quite lightly raced in this country.
After debuting for Jennie Candlish in a listed race, she claimed her sole win next time out in a dramatic race where she unquestionably enjoyed a favourable trip round while many of her rivals were either fell or were hampered. Still, she showed a fine attitude and jumped well to beat She’sasupermack who won on her next start.
Set some tough tasks since after that victory, she underwent wind surgery before her penultimate start; she shaped with promise on her first start afterwards before a modest effort over hurdles more recently. It sometimes takes horses a couple of runs to adjust after a wind op and I’m of the opinion that the run over hurdles was just a confidence booster, with chasing inevitably on the agenda for afterwards.
Back over fences and equipped with a first time visor, I expect a better effort this time around. She won when cheekpieces were applied for the first time while Jennie Candlish has a 17% S/R (A/E 1.46) when one of her horses runs in a visor for the first time; her record improves further when just looking handicap chases (S/R 29%, A/E 1.88). In fact, the form figures of her runners in handicap chases equipped with a first time visor since 2014 is: 11215P31P154231
Furthermore, the trainer has a 22% S/R (A/E 1.47) in handicap chases at Bangor (although Zolfo accounts for a fair few of those wins) while Sean Quinlan getting back in the saddle is a positive in my view.
The concern would be that the selection likes to race handily but there is plenty of early pace on here, so the visor will need to spark her up. If she can get into a prominent position early, she’s capable of a bold run at a big price.
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