4:52 – Waterbreak 16/1 E/W
A summer bumper with thirteen runners (including seven newcomers)… what am I thinking tipping in this!?
If it wasn’t for the research I undertook when studying Chris Gordon’s Aucunrisque for my Horses to Follow list, I would’ve avoided this race like the plague but the market may well be underestimating Waterbreak here.
Chris Gordon’s S/R in bumpers with horses having their first run in a bumper is just 3.6% (A/E 0.44). In a recent interview, he noted that “I don’t want them to win bumpers first time out, I don’t think it does then a world of good. I want them to go there and have a nice time”.
His S/R in bumpers with horses having their second run in this sphere is 15% (A/E 1.53); a significant increase and given what he has said in the past, it’s not a surprising one. If you take his runners from 2018 and onwards, the above figure improves to 30% (A/E 2.09).
Waterbreak was very well backed on his debut under rules (11/1 into 2/1) having been pulled up in a point to point in his sole previous outing. He set out to make all and went well for a very long way (traded at 2.1 in running) before fading out of contention inside the final two furlongs.
While he was beaten a long way, there were excuses; he lost both hind shoes and was trodden on by another horse which caused a couple of cuts. Still, Tom Cannon was pleased with him noting that “he’ll be a nice horse for the future”. Chris Gordon also said that he’d be aimed at another bumper and considering that he’s for sale, a good run here would help his cause!
His sire, Califet, has a decent 12% S/R in bumpers (A/E 1.01) and are actually profitable to back blindly while his dam is a half sister the smart Andreas, who reached a mark if 162 and was a proper two-miler, while he was also precocious enough to win a couple of times as a three year old in France.
At a price, I’m willing to take a chance on Waterbreak improving a fair amount from his last run which should see him in the shake up here.
overandclear.com 