2:30 – No Risk Des Flos 7/1 E/W
An interesting, tight handicap with a nice mix of profiles, but No Risk Des Flos has threatened to be a very nice horse for some time and it would be a tad disappointing if he couldn’t prove better than a mark of 128.
A useful novice last season, he was still quite raw but he demonstrated a good level of ability when winning two of his five starts over hurdles and running with credit on two other starts. His most recent run was his most disappointing, but it’s entirely possible that he was over the top by that stage and I’m happy to forgive that effort.
His pedigree suggests he will relish this step up in trip, with Olly Murphy reportedly keen to keep him over the minimum distance last season due to his immaturity. Following a break, he should be closer to the finished article and the extra distance can help him find some improvement.
The trainer hasn’t made a blistering start to the season but there have been better signs in past week, with a couple of short priced winners while others have ran with plenty of credit too. It’s also worth noting that Olly Murphy has a 25% strike rate at Fontwell although most of those wins have come at relatively short prices.
There are dangers in this lineup but I think No Risk Des Flos could develop into a type that is competing in some of the higher quality handicaps throughout the season.
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