During the depths of a Covid-ridden winter this time last year, I had an abundance of time to ponder about Cheltenham, with many an evening spent surveying the ante-post markets.
My circumstances are significantly different this year, but as I find myself on the train to Paris I thought I would make it a productive journey by taking my first significant deep dive into the festival betting.
Of course, I’m often thinking about horses with a view to March but this is the first notable chance I’ve had to jot down my musings without distraction.
Enough rambling – let’s make haste!
Tel me – how is she 16/1?
Back Telmesomethinggirl at 16/1 for the Mares’ Hurdle
Last year’s impressive Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle winner has been on my mind for this since the retirement of Black Tears and the news that Concertista will be sent over fences this season.
Having been a benefit race for Willie Mullins in previous seasons, with the first 5 renewals going the way of the Closutton trainer, Henry De Bromhead’s mare produced a terrific performance to win last years renewal, delivering a 1-2 for De Bromhead.
And while backing a Mullins horse for a mares race at Cheltenham has been standard procedure for years, he’s actually failed to win any of the last three renewals of the Mares’ Hurdle. While he’s still respected in this sphere, his grip isn’t as vice-like as it was and De Bromhead has proven to be a wonderful trainer of mares.
Back to Telmesomethinggirl; upon rewatching last years race, she appeared to relish the undulations and her finishing effort up the hill was particularly impressive. While the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle and the Mares’ Hurdle are run on different tracks, she clearly relishes Cheltenham and that factor cannot be underplayed.
Her reappearance was a tad disappointing, there are plenty of reasons to forgive that run.
Firstly, she was giving away 10lbs to the majority of the field due to her Cheltenham success, which is no easy task.
And perhaps just as significantly, Henry De Bromhead has stated that “the Mares’ Hurdle is her ultimate aim” and that they are working backwards from March. According to reports, she looked quite big in the parade ring and so she is likely to come on significantly for her reappearance.
For her price to double for Cheltenham, in my opinion, is a severe overreaction and she is still the standout contender at this stage. Three who are shorter than her in the beating almost certainly won’t run here (Concertista, Epatante, Elimay) while another Mullins mare, Shewearsitwell, has been impressive but hasn’t been seen since October 2020.
For all that I can see, 16/1 is far too big and that price should be taken. For those that don’t have Bet365, Sky are 14/1 which is more than fair.
Handicappers To Note
Noble Yeats
Sent chasing after just one start over hurdles, he quickly justified that decision with a good win on his chasing debut.
The form of that win is working out well, with Gabynako (2nd) and Magic Daze (3rd) winning next time out.
His next two starts have been quite interesting – he’s been ridden with extreme patience, never threatening on either occasion but keeping on at the finish.
The decision to run him in a two-mile handicap last time out was particularly confusing as he definitely looks in need of further.
Given connections, it would not surprise me if there was a long-term plan here. It’s hard to say it Cheltenham is the goal but he certainly has a big race in him and I’ll be keeping a close eye on him this season.
Skybet are understandably cautious, and are only offering 10/1 for Noble Yeats to win any race at the festival.
No Ordinary Joe
He was the first horse I crossed off my list when assessing the Greatwood but I was extremely impressed by his effort.
Far too keen throughout, it seemed inevitable that he would fade out of contention once push turned to shove. And yet, as the field jumped the second last, No Ordinary Joe was seemingly going as well as anything and while he eventually gave way to West Cork and Adagio, this was a very promising run.
Considering this was his first run for six months and that his past two starts came against inferior opposition, to acquit himself as he did in such a competitive handicap bodes extremely well for his future prospects.
We know the Henderson/JP combination are to be feared in festival handicaps and in No Ordinary Joe, they could be dealing with a future graded level performer currently on a mark in the 130s. The potential has always been there and he was thought good enough to make his hurdling debut in a grade 2.
He could even win a handicap before turning up at Cheltenham. I’m very keen on this horse and I look forward to seeing how he is campaigned.
overandclear.com 