3:54 – Lady Jane P 4/1
A useful bumper mare for Fergal O’Brien, with her best run coming when second in a listed race, she switched to Adrian Wintle’s yard at the start of this season.
For her stable debut, she opened an 11/8 shot for her second novice hurdle appearance, but the market did not speak in her favour. Going off at 4/1, she travelled strongly and traded at a low of 1.4 in running as the field entered the straight. An untidy jump at the last may well have cost her the victory, with Nifty Getaway eventually emerging on top as the front two forged clear. The winner went on to finish second in a better race under a penalty, and has since been given a mark of 115.
That makes an opening mark of 104 for Lady Jane P look more than fair; especially when you bare in mind that she was not expected to run that well last time out.
Adrian Wintle’s yard debutants have a dismal record, with an A/E of 0.14 (<1% S/R). On their second start, the A/E improves to 1 – a marked uptick. He’s also profitable to follow at Stratford, operating at 14% S/R (A/E 1.87). Kevin Brogan has a 25% S/R when riding for the yard, although all of those wins and 75% of those rides have come on one horse.
Progressive heads the market following a facile win last time out, but that came in a very weak race & she should face competition for the lead here; Aliomaana tends to race prominently while My Little Toni has also gone forward in recent starts.
All things considered, Lady Jane P should have a great chance here.
overandclear.com 