Winless Ones To Watch 23/24 – Review

It was a case of “what might have been” for last year’s list. Eleven of the seventeen to run managed to win, with the likes of Masaccio & Act of Authority winning on seasonal debut and recording further victories during successful campaigns. 

And yet, a big win proved frustratingly elusive. L’eau Du Sud’s agonising second in the Betfair Hurdle at 28/1 was the notable near-miss, and he could have theoretically featured on this list again despite three brilliant runs in top-grade handicaps. I expect him to take high rank as a novice chaser this term.

Perhaps it was Kandoo Kid that best encapsulated the fortunes of last year’s column; despite going up twenty-pounds in the handicap, his form reads 2212P23, with the sole win coming at an SP of 6/5. His season concluded with an admirable third in the Topham, and despite his lofty mark, I can envisage him running a big race in Coral Gold Cup; he goes well at Newbury and is unexposed at the trip despite looking for all the world like he’ll relish it.

Of the others that featured, Alfie’s Princess and Hasthing are horses I’m keen to keep onside this season. Both are rated 119 and I would be disappointed if they weren’t able to improve significantly beyond that.

Winless Ones To Watch will be returning for 2024/25 on Racing TV’s website!

 

Act of Authority

Record: 161316

P/L (£1 win only): -£0.86

A good season all in all, winning three of his six starts over hurdles, all in novice company. Does have a kink and his trainer has suggested he’s not one for winter ground. Perhaps he could be aimed at the Silver Trophy at Chepstow on his reappearance as he is still unexposed over intermediate trips and his last run suggested he might appreciate further.

Alfie’s Princess

Record: 11532

P/L (£1 win only): +£1.88

Started well with two good wins in novice company and was set tough tasks thereafter, always running with credit. Only rated 119, I suspect she could still rate a fair bit higher, especially if sent chasing.

Astronomic View

Record: 3222314

P/L (£1 win only): -£2.67

Incredibly frustrating as his record shows. In truth, he should have won more (Bangor in December was certainly a missed opportunity) and winning by 21 lengths at Warwick hasn’t helped his mark. 

Big Ambitions

Didn’t run.

Danton

Record: 21PP24

P/L (£1 win only): -£3.50

Incredibly unlucky on handicap debut when he should have won at 8/1, and duly won next time out when upped in trip. Went amiss on his third start and clearly all was not well, but did bounce back with a good 2nd at Chepstow. Not fluent on chasing debut, there are still more races to be won with him.

Diyaken

Didn’t run.

Fever Dream

Record: 4212

P/L (£1 win only): -£2.75

Massive eyecatcher on handicap debut over 2m when given no chance. Not seen for 6 months but was a huge gamble at Fakenham, going off 8/11 on a day where Christian Williams had a few very well backed, but he couldn’t convert. Won easily on his first start over 3m and ran well upped 12lbs in a better race next time. Still one with upside, particularly over fences.

Gentleman Jacques

Record: 3324467

P/L (£1 win only): -£7.00

Shaped well on his first few starts but has become disappointing, finishing tamely on more than one occasion and wind surgery doesn’t seem to have helped. 

Hasthing

Record: 1176

P/L (£1 win only): -£0.59

Looked very raw when winning two novice hurdles, but giving 6lbs to Pic Roc now looks like very good form. Given no chance at Newbury and then ran okay in the EBF final where there are reasons to mark that run up. Undoubtedly has more ability than a mark of 119.

Hoe Joly Smoke

Record: 32

P/L (£1 win only): -£2.00

Ran well on his reappearance in a good novice hurdle, and bumped into a progressive rival in Ed Keeper when denied on handicap debut. That was in December and we haven’t seen him since, which is a shame as he is clearly talented and more than capable off 120.

Hymac

Record: P321

P/L (£1 win only): +£2.5

Started inauspiciously when pulled up on chase debut, clearly amiss. They slowly built him back up, culminating in a win at Cheltenham’s April meeting over a marathon trip. Could still be more to come and maybe one for those October/November amateur jockey’s races at Cheltenham.

Immortal

Record: 38P

P/L (£1 win only): -£3.00

Tragically passed away after pulling up sharply on his final run. Was constantly well backed and was a gorgeous horse that we undoubtedly never saw the best of.

Irish Panther

Record: 232

P/L (£1 win only): -£3.00

A complete wrong-un. I knew there was a chance he could be, so I only have myself to blame. His bumper form is great and he ran behind some very smart types on his first two runs over hurdles, but then manages to get stuffed 24 lengths in a Killarney Maiden Hurdle in May. He’ll undoubtedly look well handicapped, and will disappoint those that give him a chance.

Ittack Blue

Record: 5117

P/L (£1 win only): -£2.19

Very poor on his seasonal reappearance and won two low level races at Market Rasen in May. Well backed on handicap debut but disappointed, and did so again on chase debut. Hard to see much upside from here.

Kandoo Kid

Record: 2212P23

P/L (£1 win only): -£5.80

Went up 20lbs in the handicap and yet returns a massive -83% ROI; sometimes, racing isn’t fair. A real admirable chaser, he took to chasing really well and ended his season by placing in the Greatwood Gold Cup and the Topham. I think there’s still more to come from him over three-miles, and I can see him running in the Coral Gold Cup as he has already proven he likes Newbury.

L’eau Du Sud

Record: P225

P/L (£1 win only): -£4.00

Another hard luck story. 2nd in the Betfair Hurdle (cantered into the lead a long way from home at 28/1) and the County, he was then only beaten just over a length in the Scottish Champion Hurdle. I did have doubts about his attitude but no longer, and despite narrowly missing out on some major prizes, I think he can take high rank as a novice chaser.

Leading Choice

Record: 136

P/L (£1 win only): +£3.00

Defied a 448-day absence to win on reappearance and was set some tough tasks thereafter. Should be capable in handicaps off 117.

Masaccio

Record: 125102

P/L (£1 win only): -£0.83

Won a good novice hurdle on debut and his narrow 2nd to Jingko Blue, giving him weight, reads well now. Wasn’t disgraced in the Challow and after a poor run at Ayr when well fancied, he bounced back to finish a good 2nd in a competitive Aintree handicap. Not the biggest, I don’t think he’ll make a chaser but could be another for the Silver Trophy.

New Found Fame

Record: F3244P

P/L (£1 win only): -£6.00

Well backed and mounting a challenge when taking a heavy fall on chase debut, and he never recovered from that. Has been plummeting in the handicap and hard to see him reversing that trend.

Quantum Storm

Didn’t run.

October 2nd – Newton Abbot Tips

3:15 – Roger Pol

A dual bumper winner, the first of those (which came on his rules/seasonal debut) has worked out quite well; the second won on his hurdling debut next time out and is now rated 120, while the third, Cuthbert Dibble, made up into a very useful novice hurdler last season and is a horse I have high hopes for. The fourth went on to win two of his next three starts in bumpers.

A couple of solid efforts in defeat followed before a victory on his final start of the season, beating a horse thought worthy of lining up in the Grade 2 bumper at Aintree.

A full brother to Minella Crooner, he’s a half-brother to two other winners, which includes Adrrastos, who Jamie Snowden had plenty of success with. He jumped well when second in his P2P and Jamie reported that he “jumps like a bunny”. As a smaller type, he could be easier to get fitter for a run first time out.

Jamie won this race last season with Sea The Clouds and, generally, his novice hurdlers in the early part of the season have run well in recent campaigns. In September/October/November of 2021 & 2022, his record with runners on hurdling debut reads: 56236211621141 – 5 wins & 4 placed from 15 runners (A/E 1.68).

With the Murphy & Skelton yard well represented, I feel there’s value in Roger Pol’s price. I expect him to be ridden handily, as he often was in bumpers and it’d put his experience and good attitude to best effect.

3:45 – Bells of Peterboro

A trappy race with some interesting types.

I pondered over this race for a while but eventually came down on Bells of Peterboro who has a few things in his favour.

Sent off the 85/40 favourite for this race last year on just his second chase start, he was a respectable second that day on ground that would’ve been quicker than ideal. With multiple pace angles here and with soft ground expected (which won’t benefit many in this race), this should present a stronger test of stamina this time around which will suit.

He’s also three-pounds lower now, despite running some good races over fences subsequently. A close 2nd to Tea For Free thereafter, the winner won again next time out and was sent off 3/1 for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase at Doncaster, while the fourth also won shortly after. Tommie Beau was eleven-lengths behind Bells of Peterboro that day, yet Bells of Peteboro will reoppose on nine-pounds better terms here.

Admirably consistent (for all that he doesn’t win all that often), this will be just his fifth start over fences and a mark of 117 is well within his range given his exploits over hurdles. Tim Vaughan hasn’t run many recently, but with four runners on the card, they’re starting to emerge. He also has a solid 17% strike rate in handicap chases at Newton Abbot (profitable to back blind).

Winless Ones To Watch 2022/2023

Review

This was third season of the “Winless Ones To Watch” – and it was an honour to have the list published on RacingTV’s website this time around.

The goal is always the same: highlight interesting horses that could sneak under the radar due to not winning in the previous season; and I’d like to think that goal was achieved this time around, with plenty from the list popping up at decent prices, particularly in the early parts the season. The likes of Blenkinsop & Sonigino, in particular, flew the flag and were a joy to follow.

I always stress that this is not a list of horses to back blind, and I try to pinpoint the conditions that would make them of betting interest; but upon reviewing all 20 horses, I was happy to find that someone would have made profit to a level stake if they completely ignored my advice and did back every runner blind!

Total P/L (£1 stake, win only): +£6.84 (SP), +£12.63 (BSP)

ROI: 10.4% (SP), 19.1% (BSP)

Seventeen of the twenty made the track, ten of whom won, with several winning multiple times.

All in all, I think it was a success and I am already planning 2023/2024’s list!

Star Performer

BLENKINSOP

P/L (£1 stake, win only): +£7.31 (SP), +£8.32 (BSP)

Winning four from five and going up twenty-seven pounds in the handicap as a result, Blenkinsop, like his siblings, improved significantly in his second season under rules. His only defeat came in the Sefton – his first run for over three-months and his attempt at three miles. Bred to make a chaser, I don’t think a mark of 131 will stop him winning more races.

Good

Autonomous Cloud

P/L (£1 stake, win only): +£4.50 (SP), +£5.77 (BSP)

Looked a natural over fences, and after finishing second on his first three chase starts (never beaten more than two lengths), finally got off the mark in a good race at Uttoxeter in March. Started the season rated 116 and is now rated 130. Full of stamina, he could be one for races like the Midlands National next season.

Blow Your Wad

P/L (£1 stake, win only): +£1.86 (SP), +£2.29 (BSP)

Frustrating in bumpers and retained his quirks for the first half of the season, although a wind-op and tongue-tie seemed to help in that regard. Rated 132, he’s always been well regarded and now he looks to be getting his act together, he can make a nice novice chaser next season.

Kellahen

P/L (£1 stake, win only): +£9.00 (SP), +£10.00 (BSP)

The most profitable horse on this list having won on seasonal reappearance at 12/1. Somewhat hamstrung by that win and the mark he was subsequently given, he’s run with credit in three starts since, far from disgraced back in 6th in the EBF Final. He’s capable of winning more races.

Marble Sands

P/L (£1 stake, win only): +£2.66 (SP), +£3.70 (BSP)

Had rock-solid novice form from 2021/22 and duly won a couple of novice hurdles to start 2022/23. Caused a minor shock in the Sidney Banks, before finishing best of the British in the Ballymore and shaping well in the Sefton. Should make a chaser and he’s still unexposed over three-miles.

Russian Ruler

P/L (£1 stake, win only): +£1.24 (SP), +£1.44 (BSP)

Looked fully of talent but finishing effort was weak on his first three starts of the season, but he seemed to turn a corner in winning his next two starts. Rated 127 and with his smooth-travelling, front-running style, he’ll be very interesting over fences.

Sonigino

P/L (£1 stake, win only): +£2.80 (SP), +£3.06 (BSP)

Seemed likely to go over fences but following a smooth success on seasonal debut at Chepstow, connections decided to stick over hurdles. He won two more times, went off 7/1 for the Greatwood when disappointing before finishing a fine third at Aintree, when ridden with unusual patience. No surprise if he improves again next season given connections.

Okay

Collectors Item

P/L (£1 stake, win only): -£0.53 (SP), -£0.16 (BSP)

Won a couple of novice hurdles at short odds and was narrowly denied in the Grade 2 Prestige at Haydock. Jumping often lacked fluency and he isn’t the biggest, so I wouldn’t be so sure about his prospects over fences.

How Will I Know

P/L (£1 stake, win only): +£0.63 (SP), +£0.67 (BSP)

Only saw him twice but showed plenty, shaping with promise behind Grey Dawning on hurdles debut before winning cosily next time out (second has franked that form). On that form, he looks potentially very well treated off 122 providing he is none the worse for whatever has kept him off the track since January.

Idem

P/L (£1 stake, win only): -£2.00 (SP), -£2.00 (BSP)

Was due to go over hurdles but seemingly met with a setback as he only reappeared in February. He ran twice in the 2022/23 season, both in bumpers and shaped well despite market weakness. He has since won on hurdling debut (6th May) in an ordinary race, but he did it nicely and still rates a useful prospect.

Maclaine

P/L (£1 stake, win only): -£1.63 (SP), -£1.46 (BSP)

Won on seasonal reappearance at Fontwell and after disappointing on his next start, has run well to place in two handicaps after wind-surgery. Still looked a work-in-progress but looks a chaser and no surprise if he improves over fences. Can get three-miles but needs to settle.

Disappointing

Briery Express

P/L (£1 stake, win only): -£3.00 (SP), -£3.00 (BSP)

Made an encouraging reappearance but didn’t take to chasing thereafter.

Fame And Concrete

P/L (£1 stake, win only): -£5.00 (SP), -£5.00 (BSP)

Has looked desperately slow and is now rated 99. Had been well backed in a couple of low-grade handicaps but hardly got competitive.

Keplerian

P/L (£1 stake, win only): -£3.00 (SP), -£3.00 (BSP)

Promise on stable debut, but despite a host of entries, only ran three times in total. Was frequently a NR, with connections seemingly unsure on what best suits in terms of conditions.

Lucky So And So

P/L (£1 stake, win only): -£1.00 (SP), -£1.00 (BSP)

Pulled-up having never travelled on his only start, looking as if something was amiss. Has won two point-to-points since.

Nollyador

P/L (£1 stake, win only): -£4.00 (SP), -£4.00 (BSP)

Ran four times, beaten 20+ lengths on all occasions. He has often travelled well through his races, so whether he can improve for handicaps (only rated 103) remains to be seen. Certainly has the potential to be better than that, but has been frustrating thus far.

Technology

P/L (£1 stake, win only): -£3.00 (SP), -£3.00 (BSP)

Promise on his first two starts but was too bad to be true when last seen. Could be of interest in handicaps over three-miles on better ground.

Didn’t Run

Adjournment

Make My Day

Next Left

15th October 2022 – Stratford Tip

3:54 – Lady Jane P 4/1

A useful bumper mare for Fergal O’Brien, with her best run coming when second in a listed race, she switched to Adrian Wintle’s yard at the start of this season.

For her stable debut, she opened an 11/8 shot for her second novice hurdle appearance, but the market did not speak in her favour. Going off at 4/1, she travelled strongly and traded at a low of 1.4 in running as the field entered the straight. An untidy jump at the last may well have cost her the victory, with Nifty Getaway eventually emerging on top as the front two forged clear. The winner went on to finish second in a better race under a penalty, and has since been given a mark of 115.

That makes an opening mark of 104 for Lady Jane P look more than fair; especially when you bare in mind that she was not expected to run that well last time out.

Adrian Wintle’s yard debutants have a dismal record, with an A/E of 0.14 (<1% S/R). On their second start, the A/E improves to 1 – a marked uptick. He’s also profitable to follow at Stratford, operating at 14% S/R (A/E 1.87). Kevin Brogan has a 25% S/R when riding for the yard, although all of those wins and 75% of those rides have come on one horse.

Progressive heads the market following a facile win last time out, but that came in a very weak race & she should face competition for the lead here; Aliomaana tends to race prominently while My Little Toni has also gone forward in recent starts.

All things considered, Lady Jane P should have a great chance here.

Racing is having an Identity Crisis

The initial idea behind this piece stemmed from Great British Racing’s “Everyone’s Turf” campaign – a £1.6m marketing initiative designed to attract audiences to the racecourse, with Jermaine Jenas as the frontman[1].

The announcement of this campaign received a mixed reaction on social media, but there seemed to be more criticism than praise which shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise; and while I wouldn’t be one to join the dogpile, I did find the 48-second advert[2] to be rather cliché and quite underwhelming given the level of backing the project has.

Influencer-led marketing has seen a huge growth in popularity in the past decade, and it has been tremendously successful in some instances when the “influencer” and the brand/product are well-suited; but it is not an automatic recipe for success and some studies[3][4] have suggested that consumer support and trust in these campaigns is declining. It would be rather apt for racing to adopt a marketing style just as it begins to decline in effectiveness – after all, we revel in being a few years behind the rest of the world.

My original article was going to delve deeper into the above, but the recent revelation of a “shocking fall” in racecourse attendance[5] and a few conversations with friends about the race day experience made me realise that the “Everyone’s Turf” campaign is simply an illustration of a wider problem: racing is struggling with its identity.

There is an increasing emphasis, when attempting to lure potential patrons to the racecourse, to focus on the amenities available to them once at the track rather than the sport itself, which is exemplified by the discussed advert’s focus on “great food” and the availability of outdoor space. The inevitable fashion trope also makes an appearance and while I understand the purpose of mentioning these elements of the racing experience, I struggle to believe that offering food, fresh air and the ability to wear clothes of your choice (as long as you’re abiding by the dress code) is the best we can offer as a sport. Those who have been following the Racing Post’s “Racecourse Price Index”[6] know that there are plenty of cheaper ways to spend an afternoon if you’re primarily looking for a social day out.

This isn’t intended as hit-piece on Great British Racing’s marketing strategy; rather, it is an acknowledgement that the horse and those involved in the sport are not the primary focus of the industries promotional activities.

And while I appreciate the view that these advertisements are not designed for the likes of me and those engaged enough with racing to be reading this article, it baffles me that we aren’t focusing on what separates racing from other recreational activities. Considering the current economic climate and the fact there has never been a greater range of leisure activities to indulge in, we should be doing everything possible to stand out – not blend in.

We have a unique product; such a USP should be a marketers dream and yet it seems as though we are cautious of committing fully to making the racing the main attraction.

Perhaps there is an element of shame to all of this. Racing has plenty of critics as we well know, both for welfare reasons and indeed due to its innate link with gambling. Putting these elements front and centre will undoubtedly attract some criticism, which the authorities are increasingly wary of. Furthermore, the quantity over quality fixture planning of late has certainly taken some of the shine away from day-to-day racing; if avid fans are struggling to get enthused, how can we expect the casual viewer to care?

Ted Walsh’s infamous “If you don’t like racing go and watch Peppa Pig” line is coarse but does have merit. Those that are strongly against racing will never embrace it – and you won’t entice them to the track with the promise of some fresh air and a £7 pint of Guinness in a plastic cup.

We should embrace what makes our sport great and unique. Although, we may need to address the glaring fixture issue if we are to get behind that message with conviction.

Formula One is a great example of an association putting the sport at the heart of its promotional activities. Following Liberty Media’s takeover in 2017, they began to embrace the intricacies of the sport, using the incredible amount of data they had to connect viewers to the spectacle they were watching, which appealed to both hardcore fans and new spectators who were learning about the sport[7].

Of course, they combined this with a focus on the personalities involved, with the hugely popular “Drive to Survive” series helping to form a connection and an affiliation with the participants like never before.

Liberty Media had faith in their core product and have reaped the rewards, with their Chief Executive, Greg Maffei, recently stating that “By all indications, Formula One has never been healthier”[8]. Viewing and social media figures have continued to thrive[9]. And while anecdotal, I have been amazed at the number of my friends that have transformed into die-hard Formula One fans in just a few short years.

You can draw plenty of parallels between horse racing and Formula One; of course, they both involve racing but you can easily make comparisons between the horse/jockey/trainer & car/driver/constructor relationships. Equally, both may seem relatively hard to follow for someone that is new to the sport, but explaining it in a way that is informative without dumbing it down certainly helps increase engagement.

Lewis Hamilton, when discussing how to reach new audiences back in 2012, said “It’s really a matter of getting the car in front of people… Once you hear it and see it, feel the noise – then maybe they’ll turn out for a race”. Ten years later and that’s exactly what happened, although getting the car in front of people was mainly done through digital means.

Perhaps I’m naïve, but I believe a similar outcome can be achieved in horse racing. It’s time to believe in the sport and focus on promoting those within it. 

[1] https://www.racingpost.com/news/jermaine-jenas-to-head-up-16m-campaign-to-woo-summer-crowds-to-racecourses/563898

[2] https://youtu.be/ztPeJxmXgLo

[3] https://www.marketingtechnews.net/news/2021/nov/22/juof st-6-of-consumers-believe-they-are-swayed-by-influencers/

[4] https://www.thedrum.com/news/2019/10/31/grey-and-yougov-find-96-people-the-uk-do-not-trust-what-influencers-say

[5] https://www.racingpost.com/news/members/latest/racing-leaders-point-to-perfect-storm-behind-plunging-attendance-figures/565275

[6] https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/ranked-how-much-is-the-cost-of-a-pint-at-british-and-irish-racecourses/558152

[7] https://thestrategystory.com/2021/07/19/formula-one-marketing-strategy/

[8] https://www.planetf1.com/news/f1-liberty-media-financial-health/

[9] https://www.sportskeeda.com/f1/news-how-formula-1-became-world-s-engaging-sport