1:50 – I K Brunel 25/1 E/W

3:00 – Colorado Doc 25/1 E/W

---

I K Brunel

With Olly Murphy having his best run of form all season, I’m surprised to see I K Brunel at such a big price.

Well thought of, connections cut his chasing campaign short after two fair efforts to preserve his novice status.

Sent back over hurdles last time out, he shaped quite well over three miles under a patient ride. He travelled into it well, closing on the leaders in the approach to 3 out but he didn’t appear to stay the trip. The softer ground over an intermediate trip looks like suiting much better. Although recent trainer comments indicate he wants better ground, I’d argue his best form has come on soft and it was initially thought that softer ground would see him to best effect.

Through October and November, the months when I K Brunel ran on all starts this season, Olly Murphy was operating at a 7% S/R (A/E 0.44).

In the last two weeks, he’s been operating at a 19% S/R for an A/E of 1.43; the corner has well and truly been turned.

Furthermore, Olly Murphy’s 11 runners at Ascot have returned two winners and four seconds.

A patient ride could pay dividends here, with Paddy’s Motorbike, Nordano & Lightly Squeeze being amongst those who like to go forward.

With all things considered, I K Brunel has good each way claims at a big price.

---

Colorado Doc

An open looking race, there are a lot of familiar names here, many of whom have been running in similar events for a while.

To my mind, very few of these could be considered well handicapped – Good Boy Bobby has always been well though of and a mark of 144 should be within his remit, while Domaine De L’Isle is back on his last winning mark – that win came in this race last season. I expect him to be a popular selection with first time blinkers added, although he has been in awful form this season.

With that in mind, I’m taking a chance on Colorado Doc. He’s 10yo now but he’s only had 5 starts under rules. A prolific pointer, he finished 2nd on two starts over hurdles and his chase debut over an inadequate trip before bolting up in a handicap off 126 over 2m3f.

A keen going sort, he stepped up in trip to 3m2f on his seasonal reappearance. Fresh throughout, he ran well for a long time before tiring on the turn for home, which is understandable given how he went through the race. Connor Brace also reported that he lost his action late on, and understandably looked after him, pulling him up having never asked him for an effort.

That would’ve blown the cobwebs away and dropping him back in trip seems a wise move. He’ll relish the testing ground and in such conditions, I like that he’ll have a light weight on his back. Still very unexposed under rules, David Brace has never had a runner at Ascot before and he’s not to bring horses to the premier tracks unless he thinks he has a chance.

With many bookies paying 4 or 5 places, I think he’s worth an E/W bet.

3:35 – Monsieur Lecoq 7/2

Having won this race two years ago off a lowly mark of 122, he improved significantly last season, reaching a peak mark of 151 in the process.

A winner of the 2019 Welsh Champion Hurdle, he finished a narrow 3rd in the Greatwood off 145 and he was 2nd in a grade 3 handicap at Ascot off 150 behind the repeat winner, Not So Sleepy. Those efforts were separated by a great run in the International Hurdle.

By the time connections bravely went to Ireland for the Irish Champion Hurdle, he was probably over the top and he ended the season with a couple of disappointing runs.

He made his seasonal reappearance over fences where he was a tad disappointing before finishing 6th a listed race in France a couple of months ago. The 3rd that day has since won a Grade 3 where as the winner was 3rd in that same race so the form is reasonable and while Monsieur Lecoq was below par again, we’ve seen the trainers runners in France improve significantly when returning to the UK.

He’s won over course and distance and he’s also placed in an Imperial Cup while the testing ground will be right up his street. The likes of Totterdown & Highway One O Two will ensure there’s a strong pace, while the hooded Guard Your Dreams made all to win last time out.

This is the easiest race he’s encountered for a while and he’s dropped back to a workable mark. Conditions of the race look close to ideal and the yard are in flying form; her runners in December recorded form figures of: 12P1F12, with the faller trading at 1.15 in running when falling at the last. It’s also worth noting that she’s only ever had 4 runners at Sandown, resulting in one win and three 2nd place finishes.

1:45 – Le Cameleon 9/1 E/W

I’ve always had a lot of time for this horse and long time readers might remember him featuring in my “eyecatchers of the week” series.

Set a tough task on chase debut, he shaped well without setting the world on fire but Nick Williams has a reputation for bringing his chasers on gradually.

In the last 5 seasons, he’s only had 2 winners over fences when tackling them for the first time from 22 runners (9% S/R, A/E 0.55). The last first time out chase winner he had was back in 2017.

In contrast, he has a 33% S/R with his chasers second time out in the same time period (6 wins and 3 placed from 18 runners, A/E 1.38). This season, his second time out chasers have a record of 121.

Nick Williams has a fair 17% S/R at Market Rasen (22% with his chasers) and this race looks winnable.

Le Cameleon is bred to excel over fences and he won a handicap hurdle a shade cosily off 120 last season. On that basis, a mark of 122 shouldn’t be beyond him and indeed I believe he has potential to surpass that mark. He tended to jump right on chase debut so going this way should suit and I think he has a great chance.

1:15 – Zoutoise 7/1 E/W

A winner of a bumper and a novice hurdle, connections wasted little time in sending this enthusiastic mare over fences.

She made a very promising debut over the larger obstacles at Huntingdon; her jumping was slick and she traded at 1.61 in running before tiring over the 2m4f trip. That would’ve stretched her stamina and despite leading on the turn for home, she looked a tired horse at the 2nd last. Despite that, she shaped far better than her finishing position suggests.

Connections then targeted a listed novice chase at Bangor; a bold call considering she was only rated 119. She was the lowest rated of the 8 strong field but she shaped encouragingly. As the field approached the 3rd last, a leading group of 5 pulled away from the rest which included Zoutoise. She couldn’t cope with the quality of Zambella and Stormy Ireland and she eventually faded into 6th, but once again it was an encouraging effort.

Dropped 3lbs for that run, a mark of 116 looks exploitable and the sharp nature of Market Rasen looks certain to suit. This 0-120 also represents her easiest task over fences to date.

Tom George operates at a 22% S/R in handicap chases at Market Rasen (A/E 1.16); backing them all would’ve given you a profit of £34.26 to a £1 stake at BFSP.

A half sister to 7 winners including the high class Whisper, Zoutoise retains plenty of potential in this sphere and this looks like a good opportunity.