12:35 – Cooking Fat 14/1 E/W

The 613 days absence may put a few people off, but there are plenty of reasons to expect a big run today.

Pauline Robson has an exceptional record with her runners returning from a lengthy break. She has a 32% S/R with runners returning from a break of 300 days or more; 10 wins (& 6 placed) from 32 runners for an A/E of 1.61. Incredibly, she has a 38% S/R with runners returning from a break of 600+ days although that’s only from a sample of 8 runners. Regardless, it’s clear that she’s able to ready one after a break.

His former trainer, Dianne Sayer, always thought a lot of this horse abs she was quoted as saying that “he is a real talent…. he likes to be fresh so he won’t run again in a hurry”.

Brian Hughes takes the ride and it’s worth noting that he’s ridden him to 3 of his 4 wins under rules. He’s been in great of form of late and the booking of the champion jockey should be considered a signal of intent.

Pauline Robson has only sent 7 runners to Doncaster since 2016; 3 of them won and another finished a close 2nd.

Cooking Fat is on his last winning mark (fences) and his last win over hurdles came off a 5lb higher mark. The cheekpieces go back on having been replaced by blinkers on his last 5 starts. When the cheekpieces were first applied, he was running a great race behind Mister Whitaker before falling late on and he won when blinkers went on for the first time. Hopefully the rejigging of the headgear can help here.

Plenty of runners in this lineup have something to prove and as a result, Cooking Fat looks like an attractive each way option with just 9 runners lining up.

2:20 – Gabrielle Du Seuil 11/2

Two miles around Fakenham is ideal for a precocious front runner, and that’s exactly why Gabrielle Du Seuil is.

4th in a couple of races in France back in 2019, she was with David Pipe for the majority of last season but they ran out of time to run her. She held an entry for the Triumph Hurdle so she must’ve been held in relatively high regard.

She made her belated British debut at Uttoxeter a month ago, sporting a hood which is retained today. A tad keen, she jumped nicely in the lead until fading on the run to two out. Weak in the market (15/2 out to 28/1), she ran as the market suggested she would and she’s more than entitled to improve for that run, her first for 599 days. The yard’s horses have generally improved for their first run this season; their strike rate with horses on their second start of the season is 15% compared to 10% on seasonal debut, for an A/E of 0.67 and 1.06 respectively.

That race has worked out pretty well; the first 3 finished 1-3-4 in a deeper race at Exeter next time out, while the 4th won well NTO.

David Pipe brings 1 runner on the 550+ mile round trip to a track he has a phenomenal record at. He has a 47% S/R at Fakenham (17 wins from 37 runners, A/E 1.27) while that record improves further when he only had 1 runner at the track; 58% S/R (11 wins from 19 runners) for an A/E of 1.44.

The handicapper initially gave her a mark of 120 but has since dropped her a colossal 10lbs for her first run in the U.K, which allows her to sneak into this weak 0-110 handicap.

Tom Scudamore, who has a 62% S/R when riding David Pipe’s lone runner at the track, retains the ride and I think he’s a superb jockey from the front.

Everything looks set for a big run here and I’d be bitterly disappointed if she isn’t bang there at the finish.

12:30 Newcastle – Skiddaw Tara 6/1

1:50 Ascot – Drumcliff 11/1 E/W

2:05 Haydock – Mcgowan’s Pass 15/2 E/W

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Skiddaw Tara

Well beaten on his seasonal reappearance/chase debut, his run wasn’t as bad as the margin of defeat suggests. He was running against rivals rated 6lbs to 15lbs higher than him while 3 of the 4 that finished ahead of him had a run under their belt. He was given a fairly educational ride; he was made to make his own mind up at the majority of his obstacles and was amongst horses throughout the race. As the leading group quickened, Skiddaw Tara was not asked for an effort and was allowed to come home in his own time.

It was a run that left the impression that there was plenty more to come. It’s also worth noting that he came on significantly for his first run last season so a much better effort can be expected today.

Nicky Richards has had 3 winners in the last week, albeit at short odds, and he has a solid 21% S/R at Newcastle (A/E 1.07). Ryan Day has ridden the selection on all bar one of his starts under rules to date so him getting back in the saddle has to be seen as a positive.

Described as a proper old fashioned chasing type, 3 miles on soft ground will pose no issues to him while the more galloping track today looks sure to suit.

It’s also interesting to see the application of cheekpieces for the first time. Nicky Richards has an extraordinary recent record with runners wearing cheekpieces for the first time; since 2018, the form figures read: 81331F1113213; 6 wins & 2 placed from 13 runners.

On handicap chase debut, his mark of 117 looks workable and this is significantly weaker than the race he made his chase debut in.

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Drumcliff

An interesting race but I get the impression that you might not have to be that well handicapped to win this.

Drumcliff has been around for a while now and he hasn’t won since May 2018, but there are plenty of reasons to think that today might be the day.

He’s coming here off the back of a great run behind Espoir De Guye, who is one of the favourites for the 3:00 Ascot on the same card. His only other start at the track resulted in an emphatic 12 length win over today’s trip back in 2018 so he clearly likes it here. The cheekpieces that were equipped for the first time LTO are retained today.

Harry Fry is in terrific form of late, recording 6 wins in the last two weeks from 19 runners. He does very well at Ascot too, operating at a 24% S/R (A/E 1.27)

The most interesting factor is the booking of Aine O’Connor. The useful conditional comes to England for 1 ride and she has a 24% when riding for Harry Fry (38% for JP owned Fry horses) while her last 9 rides for the trainer have finished in the first four.

Even more significant is the fact that she’s ridden Drumcliff to his last two wins so booking her must be seen as a significant positive. Those wins came off marks of 129 and 139; he races off 130 today. While he may not quite be the horse he once was, his last run augured well and his first win in over 2 years could be around the corner.

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McGowan’s Pass

With 8 runners and the favourite hailing from a yard that is desperately out of form, this race is crying out for an each-way bet.

Mcgowan’s Pass stands out to me at the prices given he is sure to appreciate the testing conditions. His three wins have come on heavy ground, while his overall record on heavy ground (outside of graded company) reads: 21134122. Sandy Thomson’s runners tend to thrive in testing conditions, operating at an 18% S/R (43% place) on heavy compared to an 11% S/R (30% place) on good/good to soft.

While the bulk of his form is over 2miles, he looks as though he’ll appreciate further these days, with his trainer noting that fact in a stable tour back in October.

His 2nd’s behind The Con Man (subsequent winner) and Main Fact (won 5 on the bounce since) towards the back end of last term read well, while he was only narrowly denied by a race fit rival on his seasonal reappearance with the pair 20 lengths clear of the remainder.

Sandy Thomson makes the near 400 mile round trip to Haydock for just 1 runner and the yard have been in good form, with 3 winners from 12 runners in the last couple of weeks.

1:45 – Duhallow Lad 4/1

We were on this one LTO when he finished 2nd at Bangor. He came from off the pace that day over a trip probably shorter than ideal where as the winner had the run of the race and a blunder two out ended any chance he had of closing on the winner.

Still, it was an encouraging effort and the step up in trip here looks sure to suit and he races off the same mark today (108); his two wins over fences have come off 105 and 107 and a race of this nature looks well within his reach.

Alan Jones makes the 7 hour round trip to Uttoxeter, a track he does well at (A/E 1.32), with just the one runner and it’s interesting that Tom O’Brien comes here for just one ride on the card; he’s ridden Duhallow Lad for both of his wins over fences and he operates at a 16% S/R when only having one ride at Uttoxeter (A/E 1.14)

This race isn’t the strongest; all of Kilbrew Boy’s form has been on quick ground while the same can be said of Master Vintage. Diamond Brig is feared most following his win over C&D on his first start for Henry Oliver, but the first 6 finished were separated by less than 5 lengths that day and he’s far from certain to repeat that performance.

12:45 – Dhowin 22/1 E/W

Formerly owned by Trevor Hemmings and trained by Jonjo O’Neill, he was sold for £40,000 back in September and subsequently went to Warren Greatrex.

His debut for the yard was full of promise. Restrained in rear early, he made nice headway going 5-wide around the bend to pursue the leading group. He wasn’t given a hard time and with two tired leaps in the straight, he tired into 6th but there are a few reasons to mark up that performance.

The yard were badly out of sorts when he ran last time out. In November, Warren had no winners (3 placed) from 37 runners. December has been significantly more productive thus far; 4 wins from 18 runners. That improves to 4 wins from 9 when looking at runners with an SP shorter than 20/1.

Dhowin had only recently joined the yard when he last run so they’ll know him better now while he did shape like a horse in need of his first run. It’s also important to note that his most recent start came on relatively quick ground but all of his form has come on a slower surface.

The step up in trip on more testing ground looks sure to suit while it was surprising to see him dropped 3lb for his most recent run when you consider that it was his handicap debut.

On the form of his win at Hereford where he cosily beat Exodela (2nd, rated 125) and Olly The Brave (3rd, rated 124 but was giving Dhowin 6lbs), a mark of 120 looks workable especially when you consider that this will only be his 5th start over hurdles. That win also came on his second start of the season having previously been beaten by 31 lengths.

While he looks a future chaser, a mark of 120 looks workable and conditions should be close to ideal. Connor Brace is a top conditional and I expect the selection to outrun his odds.