2:45 – Nadaitak 10/1 E/W

Ben Pauling makes the 600+ mile round trip to Kelso to run two in this novice chase, but I’m of the opinion that Nadaitak is the stables best chance of victory.

A winner on the flat, his future was always expected to be over 3 miles once sent jumping. A grade 2 novice hurdle winner at Doncaster back in 2019, he ran with plenty of credit in the Albert Bartlett but we didn’t see him on the track last season.

He made his belated reappearance over hurdles last month and for all that he was disappointing, I wouldn’t read too much into that. On his first start for 581 days, he was bound to need it, with his trainer saying “Nadaitak was always going to need the run having had over 18 months off the track, so anything he did on Saturday was going to be a springboard for later in the season”. He also added that “he doesn’t do much at home so we’d struggled to get him cherry ripe first time out, he’ll certainly strip fitter for the run”

It’s also worth noting that he was beaten 24 lengths on his first run back of the 2018/19 season before winning nicely next time out.

Ben Pauling has spoken quite highly of him in recent months. On his stable tour with Tote, he said “he stays forever and is a big rangy horse who could he quite smart over a staying trip and a fence. I’m not saying he’s a guaranteed RSA horse but he could be ideal for something like the National Hunt Chase”

The yard has been amongst the winners, while Ben Pauling has a 20% strike rate with chase debutants (27% S/R with chase debutants having had a prior run over hurdles in the same season)

Tom Bellamy, who’s ridden the selection on 3 occasions (1 win), ventures all the way to Kelso for just 1 ride on the card. He’s only ever had 1 previous ride at the track.

It’s also interesting to see the cheekpieces go back on having been left off last time out; when they were applied for the first time over jumps, he won a Grade 2 by 22 lengths.

The top 6 in the market are only separated by 6lbs on official ratings (although Mighty Thunder had to concede 10lbs all around) but Nadaitak was rated 141 in his peak and clearly hopes are high for his chasing career. At the prices, he’s worth siding with.

2:40 Exeter – Quick Wave 6/1 E/W

3:15 Exeter – Petite Power 8/1 E/W

---

Quick Wave

It’s Venetia’s time – so says the cliche – but for as much as that trope is overused, there’s no denying that she’s in flying form at present.

In the past two weeks, she’s had 8 winners and 9 placed from 26 runners and she sends just the one runner down to Exeter today; she has an 18% S/R when only sending 1 runner to Exeter.

Robbie Dunne has been doing well for the trainer of late, with 3 wins and 3 places from 9 rides since October.

It’s also important to note that Venetia has won this race twice in the last four renewals, including last year with Espoir De Guye.

Quick Wave has only had 6 starts for Venetia since joining the yard in 2018; she’s not been the most straightforward but the talent is certainly there.

Having shown some smart form in France as a four year old, her record over fences in reads: 212 and while she went up 7lbs for finishing 2nd at this track LTO, I believe this mark is still workable.

Crucially, we know she goes well fresh which isn’t too surprising given her trainer. Her appeal is also made stronger by her front running tactics and there’s a strong chance that she’ll get an easy lead here. Having gone close over 3m last time out and given the conditions, she could make this a real test from the front. Dusty Lark is known to go forward too but on his first run for 621 days there have to be doubts over whether he’ll adopt those tactics. Even if he does, the trainer has commented in the past that she likes racing alongside horses so that shouldn’t inconvenience her.

---

Petite Power

This is sure to be a thorough test of stamina which will definitely suit Petite Power.

He really made his mark last term, winning back to back handicap chases Cheltenham and Uttoxeter at the age of 10. He finished 2nd in this race off today’s mark of 125 last year before his ever rising mark meant he had to go up in grade. To his credit, he did finish 3rd in a Grade 3 handicap at Warwick but he returns to a much more realistic level here.

His run in the Durham National was disappointing, but that was on unsuitability quick ground. He was a staying on 4th last time out at Cheltenham in a 0-140 having been readily outpaced, but he plugged on well and this extreme test of stamina will be much more suitable.

Liam Harrison knows this horse extremely well having ridden him on his last 7 starts, while he rides at a 22% S/R for Fergal O’Brien, a trainer that remains in good form.

The front two pulled 19 lengths clear of 3rd when Petite Power finished 2nd in this race last year. While he isn’t in as good form as this time last year, this will suit him more than most abs he should run another big race providing Father Time hasn’t caught up with him.

2:55 – The Cob 13/2 E/W (7s available with Bet365)

A good race, but I was surprised to see The Cob open at such a big price.

He makes his handicap debut here off 124 having finished 2nd, 3rd and 1st in three starts over hurdles. There are reasons to think that his opening mark may be a touch lenient.

He made a very encouraging debut over hurdles when finishing 3 lengths behind the now 135 rated chaser Ubetya. The winner had the benefit of two previous runs that season (1 over hurdles). Despite being keen and some sketchy jumps, The Cob plugged on well despite being headed three out where he looked like being beaten much further than he eventually was; the front two pulled 11 lengths clear. The 3rd to 7th are now rated: 120, 119, 95, 126 and 114 respectively.

His jumping was sloppy on his next start at Warwick where he finished 3rd, but that was a fair race. The winner, Hooligan, won an introductory hurdle on his next and only subsequent start (rated 135) while the runner up, Nicholson, is rated 134 and is held in high regard. Also, the horses that finished 4th and 6th that day are now rated 127.

The Cob won a weaker race at Uttoxeter over 2m4f last time out, but his jumping was much better and the way he finished the race despite pulling hard was visually impressive and he looks to be improving.

It’s also worth noting that the yard only had 2 winners in October when The Cob last ran.

Ben Pauling has only ever sent 16 horses to Haydock (2 wins, 3 placed) but he makes the near 6 hour round trip with just the 1 runner on the card; backing the trainer when he only has one runner on the card (hurdles) would have yielded a profit of £120.16 to a £1 stake. The inform David Bass (9 wins and 2 placed from 21 rides since Nov 21st) takes the ride.

His race fitness and his proven ability to handle testing ground will be key here, with 4 of his rivals lacking a recent run. There looks to be plenty of pace on here, with Oscars Leader, Ebony Jewel and Minella Charmer all being confirmed front runners which should help The Cob to settle.

Goobinator looks an awkward type and was given an incredible ride to win last time out while Hijack needs to bounce back for all that he is lightly raced. Oscars Leader was allowed to dictate a slow pace when 2nd behind Mister Coffey LTO while Ebony Jewel lacks a recent run.

As such, I’m siding with The Cob who looks overpriced at present.

1:12 – Numitor 11/2

We backed this one a couple of weeks ago when he ran a great race on his handicap hurdle debut to finish 3rd.

That race was run at a strong pace and Numitor was disputing the lead the whole way; the finishing speed was only 98% and the other horse up there with the pace, Adjourned, pulled up. The winner, 2nd and the 4th were all held up so Numitor did very well to finish where he did. He’s been raised 1lb for that run but you can mark that effort up.

It’s no surprise to see Numitor switch to fences so soon given his size; he’s about 18 hands and this imposing grey looks the type to take well to fences.

Heather Main doesn’t have too many runners, especially over jumps, but 67% of her runners in the last two weeks have run to form which is a positive. She hasn’t had a runner at Ffos Las since 2013, although she boasts a fair record of 1 win and 1 place from 6 runners at the Welsh track. She makes the near 6 hour round trip today with just 1 runner on the card.

Tom Scudamore, who is building a nice rapport with the selection having ridden him three times (includIng LTO), has an 18% S/R in handicap chases at Ffos Las.

2 miles is definitely on the sharp side for Numitor, but my hope is that Tom Scudamore bounces out in front and makes this a real test for the others; and we saw with Cloth Cap that Tom Scudamore can give a horse a great ride from the front!

I’m sure that Numitor will prove to be a better than his mark of 113 over fences. Whether today will be the day he proves it remains to be seen, but he’s worth siding with at the prices.

12:47 Bangor – Duhallow Lad 9/1 E/W

1:50 Newbury – Tea Clipper 10/3

---

Duhallow Lad

Rizzardo and Twotwothree are the standout contenders but they’ve been well found at the top of the market.

In an 8 runner race, I’m always keen to find an E/W angle and Duhallow Lad looks a viable option.

He’s won twice over fences from just 7 starts off 105 and 107; he races off 108 here. It is a slight concern that both of his wins have come at Plumpton, but Bangor is a tight left handed track also which bodes well.

He most recent win reads well; Le Coeur Net (2nd) had won twice in five subsequent starts while Finnegan’s Garden (3rd) has won three times in six subsequent starts.

He’s run well in far better races than this; he last start over fences came in a 0-135 at Aintree where he was only beaten 8 lengths. This race is far weaker.

You can put a line through his last run, which came over hurdles, as it was clearly a prep run for a return to fences. He won on his second start last season and was well backed to do so; market support would be significant.

Alan Jones doesn’t have too many horses, but they do generally improve for the run. In the last 5 seasons, his S/R with runners first time out is 9%. This improves to 16% second time out.

Duhallow Lad makes the 9 hour round trip to Bangor and James Best, who rode him at Aintree, takes the ride; he has a 20% S/R when riding for the trainer (A/E 1.7)

My hope is that they’ll ride him positively as that’s the style of running that’s yielded him his two wins to date. If so, he should be bang there at the finish.

---

Tea Clipper

An impressive winner of the Silver Trophy, Tea Clipper strikes me as a massively progressive horse who could still be significantly ahead of his mark. A 7lb rise for that win seems very lenient given he looked to have plenty in hand.

He was a short price favourite for a Cheltenham handicap a couple of weeks ago before being withdrawn on account of the going. Today’s good ground is right up his street; conditions in general look ideal.

Tom Lacey continues to be in great form and he has a solid 19% S/R at the track (A/E 1.18)

I’m normally inclined to take on favourites unless that look to have everything in their favour. This is one of the occasions when I’m struggling to see past the favourite.