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27th November – Doncaster Tip

1:25 – Barton Knoll 14/1 E/W (16s available with Bet365)

This is a competitive race and you can make a fair case for most, but Barton Knoll looks overpriced to me considering he ran far better last time out than his finishing position suggests.

Sent off a 20/1 shot, he jumped well on the front end and was still bang there as he jumped the second last upsides the eventual winner, Morning Vicar, and traded at even money in running. He faded quickly thereafter, losing 5 places after the last. His trainer later reported that “he took a blow running down to the last fence” and that “he should be sharper next time”.

Of those that finished in the first 6, only one didn’t have a recent run under their belts and most arrived in very good form. As such, you can mark up the effort of Barton Knoll.

Barton Knoll is a course and distance winner; he won second time out back in 2018 at Doncaster in a novice chase. The good ground will also be ideal for him.

John Mackie has only had 6 runners since Barton Knoll ran 3 weeks ago, recording form figures of: 213303. The trainer has a good record at the track, with a 24% S/R in handicap chases here (+£47.93 to a £1 stake to BFSP, A/E 1.93)

Sean Quinlan, who has been in great form, takes the ride. He was on board for Barton Knoll’s last win; an emphatic 11 length win over this trip at Haydock on good ground off just a 4lb lower mark than he races off today.

With only 9 runners, Barton Knoll looks a solid E/W prospect.

20th November – Ascot Tip

2:05 – Count Meribel 6/1 E/W

A 9/1 shot for last seasons BetVictor Gold Cup, I thought connections might go back for that race but instead they seem to have lowered their sights which could well prove to be a smart move.

For the first time since beating Le Breul in a Novice Chase back in November 2018, Count Meribel runs in a race that isn’t graded.

Furthermore, he has a fantastic record when fresh; his form figures first time out since 2016 read: 2112. The most recent 2nd came when chasing home Lostintranslation, form that made him a leading fancy for the BetVictor Gold Cup.

Interestingly, his record in October and November in the last three years is: 1111126. Outside of those months, his form figures read: 265P47P. Evidently, he’s one that comes to hand early and so the absence is seen as a positive.

It’s also worth noting that he’s won around Ascot before and four of his five wins have come going right-handed. While he’d prefer the ground a tad quicker, it should be fine for him so conditions are very much in his favour.

Regular ride Mark Grant is onboard so don’t read anything into Sam Twiston-Davies riding Earlofthecotswolds.

Off 142, I expect Count Meribel to be competitive now he’s in calmer waters. He’s only had 7 starts over fences so he’s not fully exposed yet.

19th November – Market Rasen Tip

2:03 – Evander 17/2 E/W

A keen going sort, Evander was progressive over hurdles last season and he made a very encouraging debut over fences on his most recent start.

Despite having the joint-second lowest official rating, Evander was extremely well backed for the Beginners’ Chase at Sedgefield; having opened at 10/1, he went off a 3/1 favourite.

He was quick over his fences and showed a useful ability to fiddle one when he got in close, which is a valuable attribute for a novice to have. He set a very strong gallop from the front which eventually led to him tiring on the run to the second last. He can be expected to come on significantly for that run and he shaped far better than a 16 length defeat would suggest. It was also notable that the hood, which he’d worn on all starts to date, was left off last time out. However, it returns to day and that could bode well for his chances.

Furthermore, he did show a tendency to jump slightly out to his right. As such, the switch to a tight, right handed track looks the right move especially given his run style.

With just 9 runners, Evander looks a solid E/W proposition now he’s back in handicap company. He was very progressive last term and after a promising debut over the larger obstacles, he looks capable of landing a handicap chaser this term off his current mark.

Cheltenham Festival 2021 – Pertemps Final – Ante-Post Selections

With four months to go till the Cheltenham Festival, it might seem crazy to some that I’m already eyeing up the handicaps given the uncertainty around targets for the season. However, there looks to be plenty of upside about my two selections for the Pertemps Final and I envisage that if they line up, they’ll be right at the head of the market come the off.

The Irish have dominated this race of late, winning the last five renewals. In that time, the Irish have only had 29 of the 119 runners (24%). Last year, the Irish had a 1-2-3-5 from just 8 representatives, while Gordon Elliott saddled his 3rd winner in as many years as Sire Du Berlais beat his stablemate, The Storyteller. Both Gordon and JP are represented in my selections.

The Bosses Oscar 25/1 E/W

Tower Bridge 33/1 E/W

Both will be recorded to a stake of 0.5pts E/W

The Bosses Oscar

An 11/1 chance for last years Martin Pipe, The Bosses Oscar had a horrendous trip that day. He made multiple jumping mistakes and was off the bridle a long way from home which meant he found himself in 17^th place as the field turned for home. However, he stayed on in the style of a horse with a big engine as, despite being hampered at the last, he finished a never-nearer 5^th. It’s worth noting that Sire Du Berlais finished 4^th in the 2018 Martin Pipe before winning back-to-back renewals of the Pertemps.

In the immediate aftermath, pundits were praising his effort as one of the more eye-catching runs of the week, highlighting him as an early contender for the (now defunct) novices’ handicap chase. Interestingly, Gordon has decided to stick to hurdles this season; he noted in his stable tour that he’d be “pretty hopeful” that he can win a valuable handicap hurdle.

He made a winning seasonal reappearance at Thurles back in October as he somewhat miraculously survived a steward’s enquiry. The form of that win doesn’t leap off the page but he won with a bit in hand despite inexperience and he would’ve almost certainly needed the run given the trainers modus operandi and that was just his 5^th run over hurdles.

Still young and completely unexposed over 3-miles, which he should relish, he looks a standout contender for a trainer that has proven his ability to ready one come the big day in March and one that had landed the 1-2 in both 2018 & 2020.

His current mark in Ireland is 139 meaning he’ll certainty get in the race, providing he qualifies of course. On that note, I’d be shocked if his next race isn’t in a Pertemps qualifier. He could well be seen next in the Leopardstown qualifier over Christmas which has proven a successful stepping stone in recent years. A top-6 effort there would see his price shorten significantly.

With Column of Fire reportedly set to go over fences, The Bosses Oscar stands out as Elliott’s main contender.

Tower Bridge

Having been chasing for the last two seasons, it was very notable to see Tower Bridge declared for the Pertemps qualifier at Market Rasen on the 19^th November for what will be Joseph’s first ever runner at the midlands track.

Despite running some good races over the larger obstacles, Tower Bridge’s jumping often left a lot to be desired. He was often well fancied for some competitive handicaps (6/1 for the Close Brothers Novices’ Chase, 7/1 for the Troytown, 8/1 for the Paddy Power Chase) but his jumping was always his Achilles’ heel. Still a maiden over fences after seven runs, reverting to hurdles looks the smart move.

Crucially, he boasts some impressive Festival form. 5^thin the Albert Bartlett in 2018, he belied his poor jumping to finish 2^nd to A Plus Tard in the 2019 Close Brothers, staying on well at the finish. While he was no match for the subsequent Grade 1 winner, he was 5 lengths clear of the 3^rd in spite of his poor jumping.

It’s also worth noting that he’s only had 5 starts over hurdles so he’s far from exposed in this discipline. As well as finishing 5^th in the Albert Bartlett, he also finished 3^rd in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree behind Santini and Roksana while it’s easy to forget that he won the Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m6f at Leopardstown (for all that it wasn’t a vintage renewal)

The British handicapper has allotted him a mark of 145 for his run at Market Rasen, which looks well within his scope and it must be of significance that his shrewd connections have ventured all the way to Market Rasen for a Pertemps qualifier. A 6^th placed finish would be ideal, but there’s plenty of other opportunities to get him qualified if he fails to finish in the top 6 here.

Joseph O’Brien has proven himself well able to prepare one for a Cheltenham handicap; he had two winners back in 2019 with Band of Outlaws and Early Doors while he went close in 2020 with Us and Them and Embittered.

Furthermore, JP McManus has won the Pertemps four times, while he’s also had five hit the frame in the last 8 years; it’s a race he’s known to target.

18th November – Warwick Tip

2:40 – Aquila Sky 7/1 E/W (PP/Betfair 4 places)

Aquila Sky has been in my tracker since his eye catching stable debut back in March. Now running in a handicap for the first time, he appeals as the type that could improve beyond his current mark.

Having previously been with Harry Fry, Aquila Sky made his debut for Sam Allwood at Doncaster back in March where he finished a fast finishing 4th. Keen early, his late progress despite a lenient ride led to a stewards enquire into his performance. While he clearly hasn’t been the most straightforward, he clearly demonstrated that he has a fair amount of ability. The first 3 from that race are rated 129, 126 and 125 respectively while the 5th is rated 120. It is worth noting that he was receiving 7lbs the 1st and 3rd.

He ran for the 3rd time over hurdles 36 days ago, where once again he caught the eye. Having travelled powerfully in rear, he took much closer order approaching two out. He was staying on into 3rd on the approach to the last but he jumped poorly and landed awkwardly, which led to Robbie Dune easing him down for a number of strides according to the stewards report. He shaped far better than a 28 length defeat would suggest and he’s sure to have come on for his first run of the season.

A mark of 115 is workable without being a gift, with the handicapper clearly taking a stern view of his 4th at Doncaster. However, the way he travels, in my view, leaves the impression that he might still be far batter than that mark.

9 of Sam Allwood’s 10 winners under rules have come in handicaps; he’s 5 from 21 in handicap hurdles (24% S/R, A/E 1.53) while Lorcan Williams is a good booking for this conditional jockeys’ event.

To my mind, Aquila Sky looks to have greater scope for improvement than most of his riders and his keen way of going looks sure to suit handicaps.