4:00 – Miladygrace 8/1 E/W

Miladygrace shaped with a fair amount of promise on her seasonal reappearance at Kelso and there’s every reason to expect an even better performance today.

Weak in the market, she travelled nicely and jumped well, which was nice to see given it was her first start in a handicap and she was running against the boys. She traded at a quarter of her SP in running as she still looked to be going well enough at 3 out. She was soon ridden and couldn’t go with the leading group of 4, but she wasn’t given a hard time by Tommy Dowson and she left the impression that she’d come on nicely for the run, as indeed many of Phil Kirby’s runners have.

Dropped 3lbs for that run, this looks a much easier race; back against her own sex, most of whom are out of form.

It’s important to bare in mind that the yard tend to have a low-key start to the season. Their all time S/R in September & October is just 5.85%. This improves to 10.45% in November (looking just at NH races).

Furthermore, the yard are amongst the winners, with 4 winners and 3 placed from 17 runners in the last week (all codes).

Phil Kirby runs two in the race, but Tommy Dowson has chosen to ride our mare which must be seen as a positive.

The yard have a 17% S/R in handicap hurdles at Sedgefield (A/E 1.12, +£61.12 to a £1 stake at BFSP)

That record improves markedly when looking just at those ridden by Tommy Dowson; 38% S/R for an A/E of 2.3, albeit from just a sample size of 16.

The step up in trip promises to suit Miladygrace as she has plenty of stamina in her pedigree (half sister to a point winner, out of a point winner who’s a sister to a useful 2m4f hurdler) and she looks a solid E/W bet in a weak race.

1:25 – Steady Away 5/1 E/W

This looks the weaker division of the two and Steady Away looks to set a solid standard here and he still has the scope for further improvement.

Still immature on his hurdles debut in October 2019, his jumping lacked fluency but he still ran a great race to finish 2nd to the now 127 rated, Mason Jar. He had some useful rivals in behind him too, with Potters Venture (NTO winner, beating the 132 rated Stick With Bill) and Ashfield Paddy (124) in 3rd and 4th respectively.

His next two runs were disappointing for all that he was running against good rivals, but he bounced back to form on his handicap debut at Market Rasen.

Held up that day, his jumping was still a tad sticky, but that didn’t stop him from travelling ominously well into the race (despite being wide throughout) as the field turned for home. He traded at evens in running, but two sloppy jumps at the final two obstacles ended his winning chances but he stayed on powerful to chase the winner all the way to the line.

The winner, Ballyhome, has placed three times and won once in 5 subsequent starts so the form has been well advertised. That rival won off 121 at Market Rasen and is now rated 137.

He looks a really strong stayer so the extra furlong he tackles today and the nature of Exeter should suit him. It’s also encouraging that he went very well when fresh last term.

Nicky Martin doesn’t have many runners, but her runners do outperform market expectations in novice hurdles (A/E 1.19), and she had a nice novice winner in Bear Ghylls with her most recent runner.

The trainer also has a good record at Exeter, operating at a 21% S/R (A/E 2.09)

1:55 Plumpton – Oscarsman 25/1

2:45 Hereford – Oscar Robertson 6/1 E/W

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Oscarsman

Somewhat speculative given that he’s pulled up on his last two starts, but this is a wide open race and there are reasons to expect a better effort here.

Despite pulling up last time, he showed up very well for a long time before weakening out of it. Stepped up to 3m2f for the first time, he went from the front and still led the field as they jumped 3 out. It’s also worth noting that Prabeni, the other horse that was prominent throughout, pulled up too and the winner/runner up were both held up.

He weakened quickly which is a concern, but Debestyman, another one of Suzy Smith’s horses, ran a very similar race on his first run if the season before finishing a fantastic 2nd at Cheltenham on his next start.

As such, Oscarsman’s disappointing run LTO could have solely been down to fitness, especially considering he was running over a stamina sapping trip. He encouraged with the way he travelled for the majority of the contest and he drops down in grade here and is 2lbs lower than last time.

Suzy Smith has a great record at Plumpton. She operates at a 19% S/R here, and backing all of her runners blind would’ve yielded a profit of £161.81 to a £1 stake at BFSP (A/E 1.39); her strike rate improves to 25% when just looking at handicap hurdles at the track (A/E 1.62)

Micheal Nolan and Suzy Smith combine for a 50% S/R at Plumpton (5 wins from 10 runners, improves to 4 wins from 5 when solely looking at handicap hurdles), and the jockey comes here for just 1 ride.

Oscaraman is a course and distance winner and despite the risks attached, he looks overpriced at 25/1 considering that many of his rivals lack a recent run and/or have something to prove.

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Oscar Robertson

Oscar Robertson shaped with a fair amount of promise on his chasing debut 3 weeks ago.

Sent to the front early on, his jumping was quick and accurate for the most part, so much so that he traded at 5/2 in running (from an SP of 12/1) before making an uncharacteristic mistake at the 12th which effectively ended his chance of winning. He appeared quite laboured after that, but he rallied well to finish 4th, albeit beaten comfortable by the winner, Guy. He was dropped 1lb for that run, too.

Bar that one mistake, his jumping was very good for a novice and the way he shaped suggested that he’d improve a lot for the run (as did the market, as he was very easy to back during the day). In fact, he improved significantly from his first run last season; 7th on debut at Chepstow, he left that well behind when winning by 6 lengths at Wetherby on his next start.

Minella For Me won in impressive style at Wetherby on Saturday, appearing as though he benefited from his first run. As such, it would be no surprise to see Oscar Robertson take a significant step forward here.

By Oscar out of an unraced sister to a couple of chase winners (3m2f winner Great Grimsby and the useful Ellerslie George, so was rated 145 at his peak), he’s bred to be a chaser and Tom George wasted no time in sending him over fences.

The soft ground will pose no problem to him as his win came in very testing conditions, and he’s likely to make this a good test from the front. The home bend is quite sharp so it can pay to be handy, especially as it’s a downhill run to the last.

Tom George has a 17% S/R at the track (A/E 1.13), while Jonathan Burke is enjoying a great run of late.

With just 9 runners in the field, 5 of whom haven’t run over fences, Oscar Robertson looks a solid E/W proposition.

1:42 Ayr – Sophie Olivia 10/1 E/W

4:17 Ascot – Off The Planet 9/1 E/W

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Sophie Olivia

With conditions sure to be testing and with only 2 of the 9 runners having run this season, I’m siding the mare that is proven on testing ground and often goes well fresh.

Her record when returning from a break of longer than 100 days is: 312F; that fall came on her last start when she looked certain to finish in the first 2 (traded at 1.5 in running) before falling at the final fence. That was a very good effort considering she was batting with Bafana Blue, who came into the race looking for a 3-timer and he was 3lbs well in under a penalty.

That was over 3 miles and while stamina did not look to be an issue, she had exclusively raced over 2m/2m4f prior to that run; 2m4f on stamina sapping conditions should play to her strengths.

She races off the same mark as LTO, and while her only win came off 6lbs lower, she’s demonstrated enough ability to suggest that she can win off this mark. This will be just her 6th start over fences too, so she’s far from fully exposed.

Martin Todhunter has his string in good form, with 2 winners and 2 placed from 5 runners in the last week. Sean Quinlan rides the mare for the first time, deputising for the injured Danny Cook, but he does get a fair share of rides for the yard and has ridden Chocolat Noir (the trainers only other runner on the card) to a 3-timer over recent months.

There looks to be a fair bit of pace on here (Caltex, She’sasupermack and Well Above Par all like to go forward) which will suit the hold up tactics of Sophie Olivia, and it can pay to be patient when the going is testing at Ayr.

With just 9 runners, she’s a good EW option.

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Off The Planet

There are plenty of well regarded types in here with good pedigrees, but Off The Planet has the benefit of race experience and his bumper debut was very promising.

5th in a slowly run bumper (finishing speed of 110%) at Worcester in October 2019, he was held up throughout and trapped on the inside which meant he didn’t get a route through until very late on. He didn’t pick up instantly, but he was strong at the finish and Richard Johnson reportedly struggled to pull him up after the line.

That race has worked out well; Lord Baddesley (2nd) looked a very useful prospect when winning a novice hurdle earlier this month, as did Midnight River (3rd). Off the others, Cadmar (4th, won NTO), Israel Champ (6th, dual listed bumper winner) and Papa Tango Charly (7th, expensive purchase and placed in decent novice hurdles) give the form a very solid look to it.

Phillip Hobbs ensured a fairly quiet month but he’s started to hit form in recent days, with 4 winners from his last 7 runners.

Furthermore, he has a 19% S/R in bumpers at Ascot (4 wins & 6 placed from 21 runners, A/E 1.41) and Johnson/Hobbs have a 20% S/R in bumpers when teaming up; that improves to 25% when just looking at October bumpers (A/E 1.13)

The absence isn’t ideal, but he was due to run in the spring on better ground but that opportunity never arose.

He’s a half brother to a bumper winner and his dam is a sister to a bumper winner so while he will appreciate further once he goes over hurdles, he has what it takes to win a bumper beforehand.

There are plenty with potential in here, but as one of just two runners with experience in the lineup, Off The Planet looks a fair EW proposition with just 9 runners. It’s also interesting to note that all of the last 6 winners of this race had run at least once under rules prior to lining up here.

3:20 – Smiths Cross 9/1

With Michael Scudamore continuing in good form (3 wins and 3 placed from 14 runners in the last 2 weeks) and with the drop back in trip looking to suit, Smiths Cross looks to hold a good chance here.

He made an encouraging reappearance over hurdles when 2nd to the useful Shinobi (won again since) over 2m4f, and he showed up well in a handicap for a long way LTO before appearing to tire on the run to the 2nd last.

Dropped 3lbs for that run, he now lurks on a dangerous mark; you only have to go back to this time last year when he was finishing 3rd (only beaten 2.5 lengths) behind King of May, who’s won again since, with the Grade 1 winner, Esprit Du Large, back in 2nd. Smiths Cross is now 10lbs lower in the weights. While he failed to build on that, he has been trying trips north of 2m4f which I don’t think suit him.

Michael Scudamore has a 20% S/R at Wetherby (A/E 1.1) and that improved to 27% when looking solely at handicap chases (A/E 1.21), and Smiths Cross makes the 6 hour round trip as his yards only runner on the card and he’s Brendan Powell’s only ride of the day.

The first time blinkers will need to have an effect, but he’s still low mileage and he’s well handicapped if putting it all together. He’s likely to go from the front and this sharper test looks like it’ll suit.