3:28 – Killer Clown 11/2

One of my HTF – you can read more about him here: https://t.co/Bbwd7QMhYL

Not without support for his chase debut in a fiercely competitive novice handicap, he didn’t get further than the 2nd but that was no fault of his own; Small Farm jumped wildly right at that fence, slamming into Killer Clown, who jumped it well, forcing Ben Jones out of the saddle. The horse did continue on, so he has had a run (of sorts)

Emma Lavelle has a terrific record at Newton Abbot; 18 wins and 11 placed from 81 runners (22% S/R, A/E 1.38 and a level stakes profit of £108.90 to a £1 stake at BFSP)

Adam Wedge has 29% strike rate at the track when riding for the trainer (A/E 1.77), and this duo are 2 from 3 in handicap chases at the track.

Killer Clown handles heavy ground and a smaller field will allow us to find out more about his jumping over fences.

It’s an open race but as he’s one of HTF, he’s worth a bet here at the price.

And we are getting near to Halloween, for all you name based punters…

2:50 – Cockle Bay 9/1

A £28,000 purchase after winning an Irish point-to-point back in March 2017 (he had the useful duo of Theclockisticking and Flash The Steel behind him that day), Cockle Bay hasn’t had a great start to life under rules but there are reasons to expect a better performance today.

He made his rules debut 1,045 days after winning his point in a novice hurdle at Kelso over 2m. He was out the back and never really involved; it was a similar story on his next two starts, with connections keen to get 3 runs over hurdles into him before racing was halted due to Covid.

He made his seasonal reappearance over fences at Hexham, again over 2 miles. In rear throughout, he jumped well but was outpaced against some decent 2 milers, but he plugged on under a modest ride without being disgraced. Weak in the market that day, Lucinda’s other runner was very well backed indicating that this was very much a pipe opener for Cockle Bay.

Dropped 5lb for that, he finally gets the step up in trip he clearly needs; by Milan out of a mare that placed in points whom is a sister to the useful pointer, Beet De Bob, this 3m test at Ayr is sure to be a more suitable than 2m on quick ground around Hexham.

Stephen Mulqueen takes the ride in this conditional jockeys event; he and Lucinda Russell combine for a 15% S/R in handicap chases and it’s been a profitable duo to follow since the restart. Since July 1st, they’ve had 8 winners from 38 runners for a 21% S/R, including a couple of winners at Hexham on the 25th, with Lucinda Russell saddling a treble.

This isn’t a strong race and I think we’ll finally see Cockle Bay in a race that will suit him. He seems versatile in terms of ground and he retains potential as a staying handicap chaser.

3:08 Kelso – Enlighten 14/1 EW

3:15 Cheltenham – Champagne Court 14/1 EW (5 places)

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Enlighten

Having shown a fair amount of promise in bumpers, including when winning at this track, he didn’t quite live up to expectations when sent hurdling last term but he still has time on his side.

He finished 3rd behind Seddon on debut before finishing 6th in a hot bumper at Ayr, won by Sebastopol; the 1st-3rd and the 5th are now rated 142, 125, 134 and 133 respectively.

He ran another fine race to finish 4th at Wetherby behind some useful types after an absence (was well supported that day – 14/1 into 9/2) before finally getting off the mark at Kelso, making all to beat the reopposing Big Bad Bear.

His debut over hurdles wasn’t without promise, but he was far too keen in front and gave himself no chance. His most promising effort to date came when 4th of 7 behind Ebony Jewel (126), First Lord De Cuet (126) and The Newest One (117); he was never really put into the race but he ran on nicely in the closing stages.

You can put a line through his handicap debut; the ground was bottomless and more than half the field finished tailed off. Interesting, he’s been dropped 7lbs for that run which seems a lot given the conditions and the fact that he’s still lightly raced.

Down to 107 on good ground, conditions are much more in his favour this time around.

Mick Easterby doesn’t bring many to Kelso; he’s only had 8 runners here in just 5 years. Those 8 have form figures of: 54132215

Furthermore, the trainer has a 23% S/R in handicap hurdles here (all time, A/E 1.81). He brings this fella, his only runner on the card, on the 6 and a half hour round trip.

While he’s yet to show his true ability over timber, conditions look spot on back on quick ground at the course where he recorded his only win to date.

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Champagne Court

competitive Pertemps qualifier where 18 runners are currently set to run – a stark contrast from this race last year when only 8 lined up.

Champagne Court made up into a smart novice chaser last term, reaching a mark of 143 after back to back wins at Sandown and Plumpton. Heavy ground counted against in when at Cheltenham on Trials Day and at the Festival (likes it good, ground on Friday was good/good to soft in places on the hurdles course, based on the times), but he still ran with great credit to finish 5th and 8th respectively in very competitive races.

While he is rated 141 over fences, he’s only rated 134 over hurdles and while I’m not normally keen on backing a horse who will almost certainly go chasing after this, a good performance here should do his chase mark no harm.

It’s also important to note that he ran very well over hurdles on his seasonal reappearance last term when 2nd in the Silver Trophy which augurs well for him here. He was well backed that day too; 16/1 into 7/1

He also boasts good form at Cheltenham, having finished 4th on his rules debut in a bumper at this meeting 2 years ago, and he filled the same position in the 2019 Martin Pipe when staying on really well.

He’s completely unexposed over 3 miles and I think the step up in trip should suit.

1:25 – Norley 9/2

3:10 – Kissesforkatie 11/2

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Norley

Norley made a very encouraging debut when 5th in a competitive bumper at Warwick back in February. Held up throughout, he travelled nicely and while he was still out the back as the field turned for home, he was still being held together by Leighton Aspell the bulk of his rivals were being asked for their efforts.

When push came to shove, the response wasn’t immediate but he picked up nicely inside the final furlong to finish a never nearer 5th; an impressive finishing effort under what was an educational ride.

The 4 that finished ahead of him that day had all previously raced before (to a good level) and the front 2, Sizeable Sam and Cadzand (one of my HTF) look like exciting prospects. Furthermore, the 8th and 9th both won on their next starts.

As a Trevor Hemmings horse, you would imagine that he’ll improve both for jumping and the step up in trip. He’s closely related to Fionn Mac Cul (dual novice hurdle winner for Venetia Williams) and he’s also a half browner to Dark Episode (novice hurdle winner), Mtpockets (novice hurdle winner at Fontwell) and three other winners. That bodes well for his hurdling debut.

Oliver Sherwood has been doing well since the restart and he’s had 3 winners and 1 place from his 10 runners in the last 2 weeks. Also, he operates at an 18% S/R in novice hurdles at Fontwell (P/L: +£57.38 to a £1 stake on BFSP, 83% ROI)

That strike rate improves to 21% when looking at hurdle debutants at Fontwell, for an A/E of 1.87 and a P/L of £59.10 (454% ROI)

Aidan Coleman takes the ride, and backing the Sherwood/Coleman blind would’ve yielded a profit of £9.50 (6 wins from 39, 12 placed). When looking at solely novice hurdles, they’ve had 3 wins and 4 placed from just 12 runners.

With strong bumper form in the book and for a yard in form, Norley is taken to win on his hurdling debut.

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Kissesforkatie

Having displayed a great deal of promise in bumpers (including a win on debut at this track), Kissesforkatie has only won 1 of her 5 starts over hurdles but she’s finished behind some top class rivals in that time.

Third behind listed winner, Silver Forever, and subsequent winner Queens Cave at Chepstow in October, she went on to finish 4th in a race at Exeter that has worked out extremely well. The front 3 were: Sporting John (1st, won twice after and was 5/1 for the Ballymore), Harry Senior (2nd, Grade 2 winner) and Bullionaire (3rd, Won NTO). Furthermore, Eritage (NTO winner) was back in 5th. It’s also worth noting that Kissesforkatie was sent off the favourite for that race. Those 4 rivals are now rated 149, 143, 132 and 133 respectively.

Following that very encouraging run, she won a maiden hurdle at Wincanton over 2m5f. Well backed to do so, she won stylishly and yet again, the form has worked out well. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th all won NTO while the 6th and 7th have also won handicaps subsequently. The 2nd-4th are now rated 122, 135 and 119 respectively; Kissesforkatie is only rated 126.

She looked set to go very close NTO before taking a nasty fall at 3 out, but she was set to reappear in the EBF mares final on the 21st March. She was fancied before hand but the COVID pandemic stopped the meeting from going ahead. The fact that she was ready to run in March after her fall is a positive and alleviates the concerns of a 300 day absence.

Jeremy Scott has a 17% S/R in handicap hurdles at Fontwell, while Nick Scholfield, who knows the horse well, has a 15% S/R when riding for the trainer (that improves to 19% when looking just at Fontwell, and backing that combination blind would’ve yielded a profit of £86.25 to a £1 stake at BFSP)

Kissesforkatie looks a very well handicapped horse and if fully ready for this run, I expect her to win. She’s versatile in terms of trip having raced from 2m-2m5f but she doesn’t lack speed so this intermediate trip on a sharp track promises to suit.

2:40 – Battleofthesomme 7/2

A weak race in which most, if not all, have something to prove but preference is for Battleofthesomme, who’s only had 5 starts over fences and there are reasons to expect a return to form.

Having joined Jamie Snowdon’s yard for the start of the 2019/20 season, he won impressively on his stable/chase debut, easing to a 15 length victory. It wasn’t unexpected, as he was backed from 12/1 all the way into 4/1F on the day and he duly rewarded his supporters. That race was run in a good time (97% finishing speed) and the way he finished strongly over the 2m trip gave the impression that he wouldn’t be inconvenienced by an extra few furlongs.

That win came off a mark of 81 and connections turned him out quickly to win again, this time over hurdles, just 8 days later to avoid the impending 13lb rise in the handicap.

His form tailed off thereafter, but it’s possible that the soft/heavy ground he encountered on 4 subsequent starts counted against him. By Mountain High, whose progeny do tend to prefer a sounder surface, he’s also a half brother to Replacement Plan, who’s only win came on good ground. It’s also worth noting that he was pulled out of an engagement at Fontwell due to to heavy going on the 3rd October; that at least shows that he’s been ready to run for a couple of weeks and it’s likely that the good ground he’ll get here will be more to his liking.

The yard have been ticking over nicely with a few winners in the last couple of weeks and backing the Snowden/Fuller partnership blind to a level stake would have yielded you a profit to date, albeit a small one, and they combine for a 17% S/R.

Given he went well fresh last season and with the return to good ground, a big run can be expected today. He likes to ridden prominently which suits Plumpton and given he’s only 5lbs above his last winning a mark, a repeat of last years seasonal reappearance should see him win this.