5:10 – Rose of Aghaboe 5/1

A lightly raced mare, she was a shock winner of a Warwick bumper on her first start for the yard back in November 2019, beating Wynn House (2nd in a listed race and subsequent hurdles winner) and Meep Meep Mag (2nd NTO before winning a Sedgefield bumper)

Having run with credit in a trio of good novice hurdles, she made her handicap debut and in gruelling conditions at Doncaster over 2m3.5f. Having looked outpaced from a relatively early stage, she rallied well to stay on into 2nd, without ever looking like catching the winner who made all to win cosily.

Nick Gifford remarked that they almost didn’t run her that day due to the heavy ground, and recently commented that Rose of Aghaboe would prefer a sounder surface to been seen to best effect, which she gets today.

Having stayed on well LTO, it’s no surprise to see her stepped up in trip to 3m. She also drops down in class having raced in a class 4 against the boys last time, so this class 5 mares only race represents calmer waters.

Nick Gifford has begun the season well; his runners since the restart have form figures of: 310331F21; 3 winners and 3 places from 9 starts.

Significantly, this race is named after Nick Gifford’s late father, Josh Gifford, which adds further incentive to win this race.

Tabitha Worsley, who rode her LTO, retains the ride and takes off a handy 5lbs (she isn’t the biggest so the 5lb off her back is definitely a positive)

2:39 – Shanty Alley 11/2

While Shanty Alley has yet to win over fences, he’s only had 5 starts over the larger obstacles and he looks a winner in waiting.

Having won a maiden hurdle back in January 2019, Ben Case was quick to say that “his future is over fences”. As such, it wasn’t a surprise to see him race only 2 more times over hurdles before making the switch to chasing last season.

He’s often ran with credit last term and it was notable to see strong market support for him on each of his last 4 starts. The price changes were: 7/1 into 7/2, 9/1 into 4/1, 6/1 into 9/2 and 5/1 into 3/1. As such, it’s clear that better has been expected.

In fact, he looked certain to get his first win over fences LTO. He coasted clear on the approach to 3 out (traded at 1.05 in running) before coming down at the 3rd last. He just appeared to lose his concentration; it was the first fence after they turned for home and he had a rival jumping alongside him for most of the way round, so the first time cheekpieces could be to help him keep his mind on the job. Also, Ben Case has an A/E of 1.13 when applying cheekpieces for the 1st time.

On the plus side, him falling at 3 out saved him a lofty rise from the handicapper; the handicapper can’t increase the ratings for anything that happens before the 2nd last. If he’d fallen 2 out, he certainly would’ve gone up a few pounds.

That also allows him to contest a 0-110 handicap for just the 2nd time, having looked like bolting up in the 0-110 he competed in LTO.

Ben Case has done well since the restart, with 4 winners and 8 places from just 21 starts. He has a 21% S/R in staying handicap chases at Uttoxeter while he’s also built a great relationship with Bryan Carver in recent months.

Bryan Carver has ridden 6 times for Ben Case, resulting in 3 wins and 2 places (and 1 fall). Backing them blind would’ve yielded a profit of £44.98 to a £1 stake at BFSP for an A/E of 2.86.

It’s also worth noting that Bryan Carver, who is excellent value for his 5lb claim, had ridden 2 winners and 4 places from just 6 rides in handicap chases at Uttoxeter.

As with any horse coming back from a break, fitness has to be taken on an element of trust but Ben Case is adept are readying one first time out and Shanty Alley has run well fresh in the past. As such, everything looks set for a big run.

Easy Bucks is likely to be a short price considering he’s officially 3lbs well in under a penalty. However, the race he won completely fell apart, with 3 of the top 5 in the market failing to complete (2 down at the first) and the other vastly underperforming. While he is lightly raced, he’s far from certain to repeat that effort in a deeper race for a stable that has been far from prolific in recent months.

4:10 – Schiehallion Munro 9/1 EW (4 places widely available)

I was incredibly impressed by this horse last season; he went from strength to strength over fences, impressing with his fast, accurate and aggressive jumping.

He made a winning chasing debut when scoring decisively at Catterick, beating the race fit and subsequent hurdle winner Captain Moirette.

He wasn’t given a hard time when beaten by Knight In Dubai (pair pulled readily clear of the 3rd in a slowly run race) before beating NTO winner, Stradivarius Davis at Newcastle over an inadequate trip (2m, he’s definitely at his best over 2m4f)

Having run 3 times in Novice chases, he made he made his handicap debut at Catterick off 131. Prominent early, his quick and accurate jumping took him to the front after the 4th. His relentlessly pristine leaps meant he never looked like getting caught as he cruised to a a comfortable 3.5length win (eased down)

The runner up was Return Ticket; his subsequent form over fences reads 2221 over fences, chasing home some useful types Mx he’s now rated 6lbs higher than when beaten by Schiehallion Munro.

The front 3 were well clear, but the 4th (Before Midnight) has finished 2nd in both subsequent starts while Crixus’s Escape (5th) finished second NTO before bolting up at Kelso. Hence, the form has a solid look to it.

Following that win, he was reportedly being aimed at Aintree in the spring which speaks volumes about the regard he’s held in.

A keen sort (wears a good), all of his starts to date over fences have come in field sizes of less than 6 (although he did beat 12 rivals in a novice hurdle). If anything I think a larger amount of runners will suit him given that he can pull early in his races and his sound jumping should hold him in good stead.

Micky Hammond has had a couple of winners in the last week, and he has a 17% S/R in handicap chases at Wetherby when Joe Colliver rides (A/E 1.27).

While a mark of 140 demands another step forward, I think he’s capable of it and conditions are ideal in terms of ground, trip and track (he is a course and distance winner over hurdles). The 9/1 on offer is fair given his progressive profile and, if fit, he should make his presence felt here.

12:00 – Kemble’s Cascade 8/1 EW (WITHOUT Your Darling and Perfect Myth)

8s with PP/Betfair and Bet365

This is an intriguing novice hurdle and I think it’s one to keep an eye on with a view to the future.

Your Darling is clearly held in high regard and took the scalp of Flinteur Sacre at Newbury while Perfect Myth is a mare in flying form having improved markedly over the summer.

However, the one that looks a big price to me (18s-22s in the conventional market) is Kemble’s Cascade, who’s himself is well thought of and has ran well enough in bumpers to suggest that he can win over hurdles.

Well supported on his debut back in April 2019 (6/1 into 7/2), he responded well to the urging of Gavin Sheehan and despite going very wide on the turn for home, he burst through to lead inside the final furlong before running green, eventually finishing 2nd. Still, it was an encouraging run and the winner (Stoner’s Choice) went on to run well in listed bumpers and has performed well over hurdles while the 3rd (Dundrum Wood) is rated highly by Olly Murphy.

He didn’t appreciate the heavy ground on his next start (but still ran well with credit behind some nice types), before running well in an AW bumper at Lingfield. Having been held up, he did well to make up ground on the leaders given the nature of the track, eventually finishing 3rd.

He’s bred to make a jumper; by Kalinisi out of a half sister to the useful 2mile hurdler/chaser (2006 Grand Annual runner up), Tiger Cry. He’s a half brother to 3 winners, including Wee Tiger (hurdle winner on good ground) and Pumped Up Kicks (4 time winner on good for Gordon Elliot and Dan Skelton, rated 132 in her peak)

There are plenty in here with potential, but Kemble’s Cascade seems a big price and given how the market is dominated by 2 horses, this looks like a good opportunity for a W/O bet.

The selection will like the ground and has reportedly schooled very well. He’s been well thought of for some time and having shown plenty in 3 bumpers, he looks the type to progress over hurdles.

2:28 – Forever Des Long 11/4 (3/1 available in a couple of places)

I didn’t expect to be tipping him today as I thought he’d be a much shorter price, but the 3/1 on offer is too good to turn down.

Firstly, he’s one of my horses to follow for the season having improved for each start last term. He was crying out for a step up in trip today, which he gets, and he promises to be a better horse following a break.

Philip Hobbs has only had 8 runners at Hexham in the last 5 years, resulting in 5 winners (he’s 2 from 3 in novice hurdles here)

Scene Not Herd was very well supported last time and ran with credit, and the money is down again.

The drift on FDL is a slight worry but he has the best form in the race and with the prospect of further improvement for this step up in trip, 3/1 is simply too big.